Varaždin vs Vukovar Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Fri, 13 Mar - 5:00 PM
1. HNL
Varaždin
Varaždin
2
0
0
Vukovar
Vukovar
Full Time
Fri, 13 Mar
5:00 PM
Luka Skaricic - 42'
Aleksa Latkovic - 75'
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 19
CONTEXT
The match has finished with Varaždin securing a 1-0 full-time victory over Vukovar. The home side established their lead early, holding a 1-0 advantage at half-time, and successfully defended that narrow margin through to the final whistle. This outcome was fully aligned with the pre-match market, which correctly favored Varaždin with a 46.5% implied win probability compared to Vukovar's 25.8% chance. Despite being the stronger team and claiming the win, Varaždin actually saw slightly less of the ball, managing 46% possession while Vukovar controlled the remaining 54%. Expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be analytically determined whether the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying chances created by either side. Additionally, the match was a disciplined affair with no red cards issued to alter the tactical balance. The final result produced a significant deviation level of 53.5% favoring Varaždin. Overall, the efficiency shift remained exactly in line with baseline expectations. By converting their limited possession into the game's only goal, Varaždin efficiently validated the pre-match forecasts and effectively shut out the visiting side.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Varaždin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Bruno Geller
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
14.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.45
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
Oliver Romić
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
14.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.45
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
I. Vukančić
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
14.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.45
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
M. Tomas
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
14.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.45
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
N. Šafarić
VS
S. Čabraja
1.4
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.9
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rank: 61
D
Hajduk Split
Rank: 72
D
Dinamo Zagreb
Rank: 77
L
Rijeka
Rank: 71
L
Osijek
Rank: 61
W
Slaven Koprivnica
Rank: 65
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka
Rank: 72
L
Osijek
Rank: 61
L
Slaven Koprivnica
Rank: 65
D
Gorica
Rank: 58
D
Istra 1961
Rank: 66
W
Dinamo Zagreb
Rank: 78
L
1
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Varaždin
46.46%
Draw
27.73%
Vukovar
25.82%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.96
47.86
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Varaždin
Vukovar
Power Score
63.96
47.86
League Position
4
10
Global Rank
338
607
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Varaždin
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Vukovar
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Varaždin Vukovar
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Varaždin
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Vukovar
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Varaždin
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Vukovar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
54.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.81
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Varaždin
+3.03
Efficiency Index
vs
Vukovar
-3.03
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Vukovar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Varaždin
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Vukovar
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Varaždin
Vukovar
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Varaždin
Vukovar
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Vukovar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Varaždin
Varaždin
Home
2
matches
Vukovar
Vukovar
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
2
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:06:02+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-1-4-1
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
33 J. Silić
23 F. Maglica
14 (C) R. Punčec
4 L. Škaričić
20 G. Sikošek
8 T. Duvnjak
Matej Vuk
88'
7 M. Vuk
P. Bočkaj
#1277'
10 A. Latković
D. Puclin
#688'
22 L. Mamić
M. Marina
#2477'
28 I. Canjuga
Iuri Tavares
#3862'
9 S. Jurić
22 D. Pintol
K. Çalhanoğlu
#746'
91 M. Tičinović
14 M. Živković
34 M. Tadić
?. Butić
#2753'
16 K. Pavičić
K. Cabrajic
#2046'
13 V. Čaić
35 J. Gurlica
28 L. Banovec
R. Gonzales
#1046'
50 J. Špoljarić
8 A. Bosec
21 (C) J. Puljić
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Capacity
10800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bruno Geller
Oliver Romić
Ivan Vukančić
Marjan Tomas
Statistics
Possession
Varaždin
49%
Vukovar
51%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
0
4
Big Chances Created
1
5
Shots
6
60
Dangerous attacks
68
46
Possession
54
6
Corners
3
15
Free kicks
10
2
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
12
Dribble Attempts
8
42
Successful Dribbles Percentage
13
26
Throwins
24
9
Goal Kicks
13
5
Successful Dribbles
1
1
Assists
0
5
Substitutions
4
Attacking
3
Big Chances Missed
1
114
Attacks
132
Possession
70
Successful Passes Percentage
76
334
Passes
394
42
Successful Long Passes Percentage
30
73
Long Passes
60
31
Successful Long Passes
18
234
Successful Passes
298
Defensive
14
Tackles
17
6
Interceptions
9
3
Saves
3
Build-up
14
Total Crosses
21
9
Accurate Crosses
6
Discipline
10
Fouls
14
2
Offsides
0
Lineup
Referee :
Ivan Vukančić
Manager ▼
N. Šafarić
Coach
Starting XI ▼
33
Josip Silic
Goalkeeper
7.4 4
Luka Skaricic
Defender
14
Roberto Puncec (C)
Defender
6.72
20
Gregor Sikosek
Defender
6.98 23
Frane Maglica
Defender
7.23
7
Matej Vuk
Midfielder
6.94 —
Matej Vuk
88'
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Midfielder
7.07 10
Aleksa Latkovic
Midfielder
12Petar Bockaj
6.8Defender77'
22
Luka Mamic
Midfielder
6.61 6David Puclin
Midfielder88'
28
Ivan Canjuga
Midfielder
6.91 24Mario Marina
6.61Midfielder77'
9
Stipe Juric
Attacker
7.04 38Iuri Tavares
6.47Attacker62'
Substitutes ▼
1
Oliver Zelenika
Goalkeeper
21
T. Novak
Goalkeeper
2
Sven Lesjak
Defender
13
Mario Mladenovski
Defender
16
Novak Tepsic
Defender
25
Antonio Borsic
Defender
30
Luka Posinković
Defender
Referee :
Ivan Vukančić
Manager ▼
S. Čabraja
Coach
Starting XI ▼
22
Denis Pintol
Goalkeeper
6.72 14
Moreno Zivkovic
Defender
6.5 16
Kristijan Pavicic
Defender
7.02 27Simun Butic
6.61Midfielder53'
34
Mario Tadic
Defender
7.33 91
Mario Tičinović
Defender
6.17 7Kerim Çalhanoğlu
6.22Defender46'
8
Antonio Bosec
Midfielder
6.92 13
Vito Caic
Midfielder
6.24 20Kristijan Cabrajic
6.54Defender46'
28
Lovro Banovec
Midfielder
6.45
35
Jakov Gurlica
Midfielder
6.92 50
Josip Špoljarić
Midfielder
6.32 10Robin González
6.43Midfielder46'
21
Jakov Puljic (C)
Attacker
6.64
Substitutes ▼
1
Marino Bulat
Goalkeeper
42
Antonio Đaković
Goalkeeper
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Defender
26
Josip Elez
Defender
19
Alen Jurilj
Midfielder
33
Luka Klanac
Attacker
39
Pocholo Bugas
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Paizinho → Matej Vuk
9th Substitution
88'
David Puclin → Luka Mamic
8th Substitution
88'
78'
Lovro Banovec
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Mario Marina → Ivan Canjuga
7th Substitution
77'
Petar Bockaj → Aleksa Latkovic
6th Substitution
77'
Aleksa Latkovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
75'
Frane Maglica
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
Iuri Tavares → Stipe Juric
5th Substitution
62'
53'
Simun Butic → Kristijan Pavicic
4th Substitution
48'
Jakov Puljic
Off the ball foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Kristijan Cabrajic → Vito Caic
1st Substitution
46'
Kerim Çalhanoğlu → Mario Tičinović
2nd Substitution
46'
Robin González → Josip Špoljarić
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Luka Skaricic
Header / 1st Goal
42'
Roberto Puncec
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
16'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Varaždin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.