Vukovar vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Sun, 8 Mar - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Vukovar Vukovar
0 Winner 1
Rijeka Rijeka
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:45 PM
|
Goal
Toni Fruk - 51' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Vukovar 0–1 Rijeka. The result saw Rijeka take the points. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Đerđ
F. Đerđ
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
J. Titlić
J. Titlić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
I. Pajač
I. Pajač
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Luka Kurtović
Luka Kurtović
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Vukovar S. Čabraja
S. Čabraja
VS
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: D
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vukovar
27.11%
Draw
28.15%
Away Rijeka
44.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
27.98
50.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar
Rijeka
Power Score
27.98
50.67
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.96
26.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.15
25.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vukovar -0.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka +0.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vukovar Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vukovar Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home
2 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:19:17+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Filip Đerđ
Jakov Titlić
Igor Pajač
Luka Kurtović

Statistics

Possession
Vukovar
51%
Rijeka
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 2
90 Dangerous attacks 91
52 Possession 48
2 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
29 Throwins 20
10 Dribble Attempts 14
7 Successful Dribbles 10
8 Goal Kicks 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

137 Attacks 158
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
372 Passes 350
284 Successful Passes 266
68 Long Passes 68
76 Successful Passes Percentage 76
30 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

10 Interceptions 10
13 Tackles 5
0 Saves 1

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

5 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 12

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Stjepan Radeljic → Toni Fruk
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar → Tiago Dantas
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Duje Cop → Ante Matej Juric
8th Substitution
Event
Simun Butic → Jakov Gurlica
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Kerim Çalhanoğlu → Alen Jurilj
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Josip Špoljarić → Mario Tičinović
4th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Amer Gojak → Gabriel Rukavina
2nd Substitution
74'
Event
Christian Ouguehi Legbo → Tornike Morchiladze
3rd Substitution
Event
Kristijan Pavicic → Antonio Bosec
1st Substitution
59'
51'
Event
Toni Fruk
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
48'
Event
Ante Matej Juric
Penalty awarded
1ST-HALF
Event
Lovro Banovec
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rijeka exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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