Osijek vs Gorica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Sat, 14 Mar - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Osijek Osijek
0 – 0
Gorica Gorica
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 2:00 PM

CONTEXT

The match between Osijek and Gorica has officially finished, resulting in a 0-0 draw. The two sides were also deadlocked at a scoreless tie heading into halftime. Pre-match market expectations favored Osijek, giving the home side a 40.6% chance to secure a victory, compared to a 31.8% probability of a draw and a 27.6% chance for a Gorica win. Because Osijek was considered the stronger team, this final draw represents a significant deviation from pre-game forecasts. During the match, Osijek controlled the majority of the ball, registering 58% possession compared to Gorica's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams, making it impossible to determine if the scoreless outcome was consistent with the underlying chances created. However, the final result was notably not aligned with the pre-match market. Both teams finished the match with an efficiency shift that remained in line with overall expectations, reflecting a minor drop for Osijek (-0.139) and a small gain for Gorica (0.139). It was a disciplined affair with no red cards issued to either side, allowing both teams to finish at full strength. Ultimately, Osijek's inability to capitalize on their possession advantage resulted in a surprising dropped point.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Osijek showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Filip Cindrić
Filip Cindrić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.15
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
A. Marić
A. Marić
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.15
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. Kolarević
D. Kolarević
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.15
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
A. Čulina
A. Čulina
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.15
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
VS
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: 64 W
Vukovar Rank: 57 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 62 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Varaždin Rank: 66 L
Rijeka Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 77 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 66 W
Vukovar Rank: 57 D
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 62 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 8 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osijek
40.57%
Draw
31.78%
Away Gorica
27.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.93
60.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osijek
Gorica
Power Score
61.93
60.34
League Position
9
8
Global Rank
401
443

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osijek Gorica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osijek ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.67
39.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.17
37.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Osijek -0.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Gorica +0.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Osijek
Gorica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osijek ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Osijek Gorica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Osijek Gorica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Osijek
Gorica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osijek Osijek Home
22 matches
Gorica Gorica Away
Match Record
10
Wins
6
6
Draws
6
6
Losses
10
Goals
27
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
27
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:50:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Malenica
Croatia
31 M. Malenica
F. Karačić
Substitution
Australia
29 F. Karačić
L. Jelenić
Substitution
Croatia
26 L. Jelenić
R. Jurišić
Croatia
22 R. Jurišić
B. Barišić
Substitution
Croatia
3 (C) B. Barišić
O. Petrusenko
Ukraine
16 O. Petrusenko
D. Mejía Moscoso
Colombia
6 D. Mejía Moscoso
D. Bukvić
Substitution
Croatia
39 D. Bukvić
T. Teklić
Croatia
99 T. Teklić
N. Omerović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 N. Omerović
A. Jakupovic
Austria
17 A. Jakupovic
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
M. Čabraja
Croatia
19 M. Čabraja
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
J. Filipović
Croatia
4 J. Filipović
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
Spain
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
D. Pavičić
Substitution
Croatia
24 D. Pavičić
J. Pršir
Substitution
Croatia
10 (C) J. Pršir
S. Wisdom Aondowase
Substitution
11 S. Wisdom Aondowase

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Filip Cindrić
Anto Marić
Dario Kolarević
Ante Čulina

Statistics

Possession
Osijek
55%
Gorica
45%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 8
57 Dangerous attacks 69
58 Possession 42
5 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

10 Throwins 31
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
11 Dribble Attempts 16
6 Successful Dribbles 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Goal Kicks 12
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

90 Attacks 105
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

14 Successful Long Passes 17
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
40 Long Passes 41
418 Successful Passes 271
86 Successful Passes Percentage 79
14 Key Passes 7
485 Passes 344

Defensive

15 Interceptions 6
19 Tackles 8
4 Saves 2

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 26
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

13 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
7.84
3
Borna Barisic
Borna Barisic (C) Defender
7.2
33
Emin Hasic
Emin Hasic
Defender77'
6.44
22
Roko Jurisic
Roko Jurisic Defender
7.33
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Defender
7.13
5
Jon Mersinaj
Jon Mersinaj
Defender89'
29
Fran Karacic
Fran Karacic Defender
7.46
42
Renan Guedes
Renan Guedes
Defender89'
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Midfielder
7.3
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Midfielder
6.77
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere
Midfielder65'
6.58
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder
7.15
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder
6.86
98
Miloš Jovičić
Miloš Jovičić
Attacker89'
99
Tonio Teklic
Tonio Teklic Midfielder
7.57
17
Arnel Jakupovic
Arnel Jakupovic Attacker
7.1
Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
7.26
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Defender
6.84
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Defender
7.42
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
6.96
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir (C) Midfielder
6.54
7
Ognjen Bakic
Ognjen Bakic
Midfielder77'
7.13
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja Midfielder
7.08
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
6.44
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Midfielder
6.76
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly
Attacker64'
6.64
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
6.42
32
Elvir Durakovic
Elvir Durakovic
Defender86'
6.4
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Midfielder
6.73
11
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Sule Wisdom Aondowase Attacker
6.56
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg
Attacker65'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Miloš Jovičić → Domagoj Bukvic
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Jon Mersinaj → Luka Jelenic
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Renan Guedes → Fran Karacic
7th Substitution
89'
86'
Event
Elvir Durakovic → Bruno Bogojevic
6th Substitution
Event
Emin Hasic → Borna Barisic
5th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Ognjen Bakic → Jurica Prsir
4th Substitution
Event
Samuel Akere → Nail Omerovic
2nd Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Ante Erceg → Sule Wisdom Aondowase
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Théo Epailly → Domagoj Pavicic
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
David Mejía
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Osijek exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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