Athletic Club vs FC Barcelona Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
San Mamés Barria Sun, 8 Mar - 12:15 AM
La Liga
Athletic Club ATH
0 Winner 1
FC Barcelona BAR
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 12:15 AM
|
Goal
Lamine Yamal - 68'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Athletic Club 0–1 FC Barcelona. The result saw FC Barcelona take the points. FC Barcelona showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 30%–70%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Barcelona showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Martínez Moreno
A. Martínez Moreno
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
J. Munuera Montero
J. Munuera Montero
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
M. Camacho Garrote
M. Camacho Garrote
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
VS
FC Barcelona H. Flick
H. Flick
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.47
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mallorca Rank: L
Osasuna Rank: D
Espanyol Rank: L
Celta de Vigo Rank: L
Atlético Madrid Rank: W
Real Madrid Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad Rank: L
Espanyol Rank: W
Villarreal Rank: W
Osasuna Rank: W
Real Betis Rank: W
Atlético Madrid Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 10 - 37
37

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Athletic Club
20.97%
Draw
22.34%
Away FC Barcelona
56.69%

Movement

Changes since opening
Athletic Club
-0.22%
Draw
+0.35%
FC Barcelona
-0.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.21
82.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Athletic Club
FC Barcelona
Power Score
43.21
82.72
League Position
9
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Barcelona — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Athletic Club FC Barcelona

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Athletic Club

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Barcelona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Barcelona
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.50
12.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.43
37.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Athletic Club +2.32 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Barcelona -2.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Athletic Club
FC Barcelona
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Barcelona
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Athletic Club FC Barcelona
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Athletic Club FC Barcelona
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Athletic Club
FC Barcelona
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Athletic Club ATH Home
11 matches
FC Barcelona BAR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
9
2
Draws
2
9
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
5
-20
Goal Difference
+20
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:15:24+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 12:15 AM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium
San Mamés Barria
Capacity
53289
Attendance
50629
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Antonio Ramón Martínez Moreno
José Luis Munuera Montero
Manuel Camacho Garrote

Statistics

Possession
ATH
35%
BAR
65%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 7
25 Dangerous attacks 34
30 Possession 70
2 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Successful Dribbles 8
5 Successful Headers 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Goal Kicks 13
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
14 Ball Safe 19
17 Dribble Attempts 22
19 Throwins 16
5 Substitutions 6
1 Goal Attempts 1
1 Injuries 0
0 Assists 1

Attacking

96 Attacks 104
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

45 Long Passes 55
74 Successful Passes Percentage 89
195 Successful Passes 586
262 Passes 659
22 Successful Long Passes 26
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
7 Key Passes 5

Defensive

22 Tackles 22
2 Saves 3
9 Interceptions 11

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 10
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

7 Offsides 4
11 Fouls 9

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dani Vivian
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
78'
Event
Ronald Araujo → Marc Casadó
10th Substitution
Event
Eder García → Mikel Jauregizar
9th Substitution
74'
Event
Gorka Guruzeta → Iñaki Williams
7th Substitution
69'
Event
Mikel Vesga → Alejandro Rego
8th Substitution
69'
68'
Event
Lamine Yamal
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
62'
Event
Raphinha → Marcus Rashford
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Robert Lewandowski → Ferran Torres
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Fermín López → Dani Olmo
5th Substitution
57'
Event
Pau Cubarsí
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Alejandro Rego
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
Event
Oihan Sancet → Selton Sánchez
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Pedri → Marc Bernal
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Var
43'
Event
Robert Navarro → Unai Gómez
1st Substitution
10'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dani Vivian of Athletic Club has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Eric García from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gorka Guruzeta from Athletic Club fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist was provided by Oihan Sancet, who delivered a cross.
90
Update Update
Dani Vivian from Athletic Club committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Robert Navarro from Athletic Club attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Oihan Sancet, who delivered a cross.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Athletic Club 0, Barcelona 1.
89
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Oihan Sancet of Athletic Club took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Mikel Vesga.
87
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Alex Berenguer has been flagged for being in an offside position.
86
Update Update
Robert Lewandowski of Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Andoni Gorosabel from Athletic Club committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Mikel Vesga from Athletic Club committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Fermín López from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Eder García from Athletic Club committed a foul.
81
Update Update
Eric García from Barcelona was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Ronald Araujo replaces Marc Casadó.
77
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Robert Navarro has been caught in an offside position.
76
Update Update
Offside call against Barcelona. Lamine Yamal has been caught in an offside position.
75
Update Update
Mikel Vesga from Athletic Club committed a foul.
75
Update Update
Pedri from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Eder García replaces Mikel Jauregizar.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after João Cancelo allowed the ball to go out.
73
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Dani Vivian from Athletic Club took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal.
71
Update Update
Alex Berenguer from Athletic Club earned a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Update Update
Raphinha from Barcelona committed a foul.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Gorka Guruzeta comes on to replace Iñaki Williams.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Mikel Vesga replaces Alejandro Rego.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Barcelona takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Athletic Club. Lamine Yamal scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
67
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Robert Lewandowski of Barcelona fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
66
Update Update
Pedri from Barcelona earned a free kick in the attacking zone.
66
Update Update
Andoni Gorosabel from Athletic Club committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Mikel Jauregizar from Athletic Club has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Marc Casadó from Barcelona committed a foul.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Raphinha comes on to replace Marcus Rashford.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Fermín López comes on to replace Dani Olmo.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Robert Lewandowski comes on to replace Ferran Torres.
58
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Oihan Sancet from Athletic Club takes a right-footed shot from the heart of the box. However, Joan García, the goalkeeper for Barcelona, makes a crucial save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Dani Vivian.
58
Attempt Attempt
A missed opportunity! Iñaki Williams from Athletic Club took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide.
57
Update Update
Iñaki Williams from Athletic Club earned a free kick in an offensive position.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pau Cubarsí of Barcelona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
57
Update Update
Pau Cubarsí from Barcelona committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Oihan Sancet from Athletic Club committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Dani Olmo from Barcelona earned a free kick in an offensive position.
55
Attempt Attempt
Dani Olmo from Barcelona attempts a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it's deflected away.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Barcelona after Dani Vivian allowed the ball to go out.
53
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Oihan Sancet from Athletic Club takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but the attempt is successfully stopped.
50
Update Update
Pedri from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Mikel Jauregizar from Athletic Club committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Alejandro Rego from Athletic Club committed a foul.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alejandro Rego of Athletic Club has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
50
Update Update
Dani Olmo from Barcelona earned a free kick in an offensive position.
49
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Pau Cubarsí of Barcelona attempted a header from the center of the box that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Marcus Rashford, who delivered a cross.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Barcelona after Alex Berenguer allowed the ball to go out of play.
47
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Marcus Rashford of Barcelona takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
46
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Iñaki Williams has been caught offside.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Oihan Sancet comes on to replace Selton Sánchez.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Athletic Club and Barcelona.
45
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Ferran Torres of Barcelona took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The chance was set up by Marcus Rashford, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Barcelona after Aymeric Laporte allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Athletic Club 0, Barcelona 0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Pedri comes on to replace Marc Bernal.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Barcelona after Andoni Gorosabel allowed the ball to go out.
43
Update Update
Marc Casadó from Barcelona committed a foul.
43
Update Update
Alejandro Rego from Athletic Club has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Iñaki Williams is caught in an offside position.
41
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
40
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Aymeric Laporte from Athletic Club.
39
Update Update
Adama Boiro from Athletic Club has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
39
Update Update
Lamine Yamal from Barcelona committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Selton Sánchez of Athletic Club has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
38
Update Update
Selton Sánchez from Athletic Club earned a free kick in an offensive position.
37
Update Update
Lamine Yamal from Barcelona committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Adama Boiro from Athletic Club has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Marc Casadó from Barcelona was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
34
Update Update
Aymeric Laporte from Athletic Club committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Robert Navarro has been caught in an offside position.
31
Update Update
Marcus Rashford commits a foul against Barcelona.
31
Update Update
Andoni Gorosabel from Athletic Club was awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
29
Update Update
Offside call against Barcelona. Dani Olmo has been caught in an offside position.
26
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Selton Sánchez is caught in an offside position.
24
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Alex Berenguer is caught in an offside position.
20
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Mikel Jauregizar from Athletic Club attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar.
18
Update Update
Selton Sánchez from Athletic Club committed a foul.
18
Update Update
Eric García from Barcelona earned a free kick on the right flank.
10
Update Update
Offside call against Barcelona. Dani Olmo is caught in an offside position.
10
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Robert Navarro comes on to replace Unai Gómez due to an injury.
9
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
8
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Selton Sánchez from Athletic Club.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Barcelona after Unai Simón allowed the ball to go out.
6
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! João Cancelo from Barcelona takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the bar. The assist came from Dani Olmo following a corner kick.
3
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity for Athletic Club! Unai Gómez attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Alex Berenguer.
3
Update Update
Another offensive push from Athletic Club. Iñaki Williams attempts a header from the middle of the box, but Joan García, the Barcelona goalkeeper, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Alex Berenguer.
2
Update Update
Iñaki Williams from Athletic Club earned a free kick in an offensive position.
2
Update Update
Marc Casadó from Barcelona committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Offside call against Barcelona. Ferran Torres is caught in an offside position.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after João Cancelo allowed the ball to go out of play.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Barcelona exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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