Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
La Liga
Villarreal
VIL
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Deportivo Alavés and Villarreal has officially finished in a 1-1 draw. Alavés took an early advantage, heading into the half-time break with a 1-0 lead, but the visitors managed to equalize in the second half. Play was highly competitive and relatively balanced, with Alavés holding 48 percent of the possession compared to Villarreal's slightly dominant 52 percent. This final result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, specifically frustrating Villarreal. Entering the fixture as the stronger team, Villarreal held a 43.8 percent probability of winning in the pre-match market. In contrast, an Alavés victory was priced at 28.3 percent, and a draw was valued at 28 percent. Consequently, the drawn outcome failed to align with the pre-match market projections. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both sides, it cannot be determined if the final score strictly aligned with the quality of scoring opportunities. However, the overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with regular match flows. Furthermore, the match was completed without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either side.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Villarreal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Deportivo Alavés
Villarreal
Team Power Ranking
i
74.75
82.54
Deportivo Alavés
Villarreal
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Deportivo Alavés
Villarreal
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Deportivo Alavés
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Deportivo Alavés
⚠ Proxy
Deportivo Alavés
Villarreal
Deportivo Alavés
Villarreal
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:18:15+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Starting XI ▼















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Manager ▼
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Match Commentary