Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Riyadh Air Metropolitano Sat, 7 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga
Atlético Madrid ATM
3 Winner 2
Real Sociedad RSO
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 5:30 PM
Alexander Sørloth - 5'
Nico González - 67', 81'
Goal
|
Goal
Carlos Soler - 9'
Mikel Oyarzabal - 68'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Atlético Madrid 2–1 Real Sociedad. The result saw Atlético Madrid take the points. Atlético Madrid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Atlético Madrid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Cordero Vega
A. Cordero Vega
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
I. Bárcena Rodríguez
I. Bárcena Rodríguez
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
G. González Páez
G. González Páez
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
J. Romano García
J. Romano García
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
VS
Real Sociedad P. Matarazzo
P. Matarazzo
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo Alavés Rank: W
Real Sociedad Rank: D
Girona Rank: W
Valencia Rank: W
Athletic Club Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elche Rank: W
Athletic Club Rank: D
Celta de Vigo Rank: W
FC Barcelona Rank: W
Getafe Rank: W
Atlético Madrid Rank: D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 7 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atlético Madrid
55.74%
Draw
24.31%
Away Real Sociedad
19.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.67
43.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad
Power Score
66.67
43.21
League Position
3
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Sociedad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Madrid Real Sociedad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atlético Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Sociedad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
53.17
17.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.19
53.17
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atlético Madrid +3.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Sociedad -3.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atlético Madrid Real Sociedad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Real Sociedad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Madrid ATM Home
11 matches
Real Sociedad RSO Away
Match Record
7
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
7
Goals
21
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
21
+12
Goal Difference
-12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:12:33+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Capacity
70460
Attendance
60788
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adrián Cordero Vega
Israel Bárcena Rodríguez
Gonzalo González Páez
Judit Romano García

Statistics

Possession
ATM
52%
RSO
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
7 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 2
73 Dangerous attacks 25
52 Possession 48
8 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

27 Ball Safe 52
9 Goal Kicks 18
22 Throwins 18
14 Successful Headers 22
12 Dribble Attempts 18
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
4 Successful Dribbles 8
13 Goal Attempts 3
3 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

105 Attacks 105
5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 80
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
484 Passes 463
48 Long Passes 66
15 Successful Long Passes 27
398 Successful Passes 369
21 Key Passes 4

Defensive

23 Tackles 13
6 Interceptions 12
1 Saves 5
53 Duels Won 48

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 5
8 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

6 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nico González
Header / 5th Goal
81'
74'
Event
Brais Méndez → Luka Sucic
9th Substitution
74'
Event
Beñat Turrientes → Carlos Soler
10th Substitution
68'
Event
Mikel Oyarzabal
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Nico González
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
67'
65'
Event
Arsen Zakharyan → Ander Barrenetxea
8th Substitution
Event
Johnny Cardoso → Koke 
7th Substitution
61'
56'
Event
Mikel Oyarzabal → Orri Óskarsson
6th Substitution
55'
Event
Gonçalo Guedes → Pablo Marín
5th Substitution
Event
Nico González → Thiago Almada
4th Substitution
54'
Event
Julián Alvarez → Giuliano Simeone
2nd Substitution
53'
Event
Antoine Griezmann → Ademola Lookman
3rd Substitution
53'
49'
Event
Orri Óskarsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Marcos Llorente → Rodrigo Mendoza
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Dávid Hancko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
9'
Event
Carlos Soler
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Alexander Sørloth
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Atletico Madrid defeating Real Sociedad by a score of 3-2.
90
Update Update
Marcos Llorente from Atletico Madrid earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. José María Giménez of Atletico Madrid headed the ball from the center of the box, but it went over the bar and to the left. The assist came from Julián Alvarez, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! José María Giménez of Atletico Madrid attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner kick, but it didn't find the target.
90
Update Update
Marcos Llorente of Atletico Madrid was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Nico González commits a handball for Atletico Madrid.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Atletico Madrid after Duje Caleta-Car allowed the ball to go out.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexander Sørloth - Atletico Madrid.
88
Update Update
Jon Martín from Real Sociedad has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
87
Update Update
Matteo Ruggeri from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Gonçalo Guedes from Real Sociedad was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mikel Oyarzabal from Real Sociedad fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Brais Méndez.
83
Update Update
Dávid Hancko of Atletico Madrid earned a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Update Update
Yangel Herrera committed a foul against Real Sociedad.
81
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Dávid Hancko from Atletico Madrid takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid leads 3-2 against Real Sociedad. Nico González scores with a header from the center of the box, directing it into the bottom left corner. The assist comes from Matteo Ruggeri, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
81
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Marcos Llorente of Atletico Madrid fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Duje Caleta-Car allowed the ball to go out.
78
Update Update
Yangel Herrera from Real Sociedad earned a free kick in an offensive position.
78
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
76
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Dávid Hancko from Atletico Madrid takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Antoine Griezmann.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Sociedad: Brais Méndez comes on to replace Luka Sucic.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Jon Aramburu allowed the ball to go out.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Sociedad: Beñat Turrientes comes on to replace Carlos Soler.
72
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso of Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Update Update
Yangel Herrera committed a foul against Real Sociedad.
72
Update Update
Arsen Zakharyan from Real Sociedad committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
71
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Nico González from Atletico Madrid takes a left-footed shot from the heart of the box. However, the effort is thwarted by goalkeeper Álex Remiro of Real Sociedad, who makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist for this attempt comes from Antoine Griezmann.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Real Sociedad. Nico González scores with a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Offside call against Real Sociedad. Arsen Zakharyan has been flagged for being offside.
66
Attempt Attempt
Nico González from Atletico Madrid had a great opportunity but failed to convert, firing a left-footed shot from the heart of the penalty area.
65
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The assist came from Marcos Llorente.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Sociedad: Arsen Zakharyan comes on to replace Ander Barrenetxea.
63
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Julián Alvarez of Atletico Madrid heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The cross was delivered by Matteo Ruggeri.
63
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Nico González from Atletico Madrid took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Johnny Cardoso comes on to replace Koke.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Jon Aramburu allowed the ball to go out.
58
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Luka Sucic from Real Sociedad attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Sociedad: Mikel Oyarzabal is coming off, and Orri Óskarsson is taking his place.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Sociedad: Gonçalo Guedes comes on to replace Pablo Marín.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Nico González comes on to replace Thiago Almada.
54
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Julián Alvarez is coming on to replace Giuliano Simeone.
53
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Alexander Sørloth from Atletico Madrid.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Antoine Griezmann comes on for Ademola Lookman.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Sociedad after a play that resulted in a deflection off Dávid Hancko.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Sociedad after a foul by Dávid Hancko.
50
Update Update
Offside call against Atletico Madrid. José María Giménez has been flagged for being in an offside position.
50
Update Update
Yangel Herrera from Real Sociedad has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
50
Update Update
Thiago Almada committed a foul against Atletico Madrid.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Orri Óskarsson of Real Sociedad has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
49
Update Update
Orri Óskarsson from Real Sociedad committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Ademola Lookman from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the offensive zone.
48
Update Update
Offside call against Atletico Madrid. Matteo Ruggeri has been caught in an offside position.
47
Update Update
José María Giménez from Atletico Madrid has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
47
Update Update
Orri Óskarsson from Real Sociedad committed a foul.
47
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Ademola Lookman from Atletico Madrid attempts a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
45
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Rodrigo Mendoza from Atletico Madrid.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's intercepted.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid attempted a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Atletico Madrid. Ademola Lookman is caught in an offside position.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Sergio Gómez of Real Sociedad attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area after a quick counter-attack.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad.
45
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort is underway. Luka Sucic from Real Sociedad takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Jan Oblak of Atletico Madrid makes a save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nahuel Molina from Atletico Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the goal and to the right. The assist came from Koke.
42
Update Update
Duje Caleta-Car committed a foul against a player from Real Sociedad.
41
Update Update
Ademola Lookman from Atletico Madrid earned a free kick in an offensive position.
40
Update Update
Orri Óskarsson from Real Sociedad committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Koke from Atletico Madrid has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
40
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Koke from Atletico Madrid takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, the attempt is thwarted by goalkeeper Álex Remiro of Real Sociedad, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Thiago Almada.
39
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Giuliano Simeone from Atletico Madrid.
39
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
36
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Thiago Almada.
32
Update Update
Orri Óskarsson from Real Sociedad committed a foul.
32
Update Update
José María Giménez from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid attempted a header from the center of the penalty area.
29
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! José María Giménez of Atletico Madrid heads the ball from close range, but it sails over the bar. The assist came from Koke, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Jon Martín allowed the ball to go out.
22
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Dávid Hancko.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dávid Hancko of Atletico Madrid has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
20
Update Update
Luka Sucic of Real Sociedad has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Update Update
Dávid Hancko from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Jon Aramburu allowed the ball to go out.
17
Update Update
Another offensive push. Giuliano Simeone of Atletico Madrid heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Jon Aramburu allowed the ball to go out.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Atletico Madrid 1, Real Sociedad 1. Carlos Soler scores for Real Sociedad with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the top left corner of the net. The assist came from Luka Sucic.
7
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed over the bar. The chance came after a corner, with Matteo Ruggeri providing the cross.
7
Attempt Attempt
The attempt has been thwarted. Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Ademola Lookman.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Duje Caleta-Car allowed the ball to go out.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Real Sociedad. Alexander Sørloth finds the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending the ball into the upper part of the goal. The assist comes from José María Giménez, who set him up with a header.
4
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. However, Álex Remiro from Real Sociedad makes a great save, pushing the ball to the left corner. The assist came from Giuliano Simeone.
1
Update Update
Giuliano Simeone from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Ander Barrenetxea from Real Sociedad committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Atlético Madrid exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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