Osasuna vs Mallorca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio El Sadar Sun, 8 Mar - 12:02 AM
La Liga
Osasuna OSA
2 – 2
Mallorca MLL
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 12:02 AM
Kike Barja - 89'
Ante Budimir - 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Vedat Muriqi - 35', 61'
Raúl García 82' Red Card
|
Red Card Jan Virgili 73'
Red Card Jan Virgili 73'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Osasuna 2–2 Mallorca. The match ended in a draw. Osasuna showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Osasuna showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Hernández Hernández
A. Hernández Hernández
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
J. Naranjo Pérez
J. Naranjo Pérez
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
M. Cerdán Aguilar
M. Cerdán Aguilar
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
F. García Riesgo
F. García Riesgo
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Osasuna A. Lisci
A. Lisci
VS
Mallorca M. Demichelis
M. Demichelis
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elche Rank: D
Celta de Vigo Rank: W
Villarreal Rank: D
Rayo Vallecano Rank: W
Real Oviedo Rank: W
Girona Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celta de Vigo Rank: L
Real Betis Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Sevilla Rank: W
Atlético Madrid Rank: L
Athletic Club Rank: W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 13 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osasuna
49.51%
Draw
28.09%
Away Mallorca
22.4%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
41.98
30.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osasuna
Mallorca
Power Score
41.98
30.86
League Position
10
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osasuna — Opponent-weighted form score
Mallorca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osasuna Mallorca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Osasuna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mallorca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osasuna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mallorca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.60
18.60
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.60
52.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Osasuna +3.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Mallorca -3.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Osasuna
Mallorca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osasuna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mallorca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Osasuna Mallorca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Osasuna Mallorca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Osasuna
Mallorca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osasuna OSA Home
9 matches
Mallorca MLL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
3
Goals
11
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
11
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:02:41+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 12:02 AM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium
Estadio El Sadar
Capacity
23576
Attendance
2
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández
José Enrique Naranjo Pérez
Marcos Cerdán Aguilar
Francisco García Riesgo

Statistics

Possession
OSA
53%
MLL
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
6 Big Chances Created 2
17 Shots 5
86 Dangerous attacks 26
50 Possession 50
8 Corners 0
12 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 5
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

25 Throwins 13
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
12 Dribble Attempts 7
7 Goal Kicks 17
7 Successful Headers 9
68 Ball Safe 86
12 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 3
2 Assists 1
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

93 Attacks 63
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

342 Successful Passes 347
86 Successful Passes Percentage 83
27 Successful Long Passes 24
42 Long Passes 61
64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
16 Key Passes 7
399 Passes 419

Defensive

18 Tackles 17
3 Interceptions 4
2 Saves 4
41 Duels Won 39

Build-up

35 Total Crosses 13
9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 12

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Samú Costa
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Ante Budimir
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+4'
Event
Kike Barja
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
89'
88'
Event
Mateu Morey → Pablo Maffeo
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Antonio Sánchez → Mateo Joseph
10th Substitution
Event
Víctor Muñoz
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Raúl García
Foul / 2nd Redcard
82'
Event
Raúl García
Card adjusted
82'
Event
Kike Barja → Jon Moncayola
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Juan Cruz → Jorge Herrando
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Moi Gómez → Javi Galán
8th Substitution
77'
73'
Event
Jan Virgili
3rd Redcard
73'
Event
Jan Virgili
Foul / 1st Redcard
69'
Event
Leo Román
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Jan Virgili → Manu Morlanes
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Vedat Muriqi
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Pablo Maffeo
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Raúl García → Rubén García
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Raúl Moro → Lucas Torró
4th Substitution
56'
53'
Event
Sergi Darder → Pablo Torre
1st Substitution
53'
Event
David López → Antonio Raíllo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Alessio Lisci
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
40'
35'
Event
Vedat Muriqi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
27'
Event
Martin Valjent
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Pablo Torre
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Rubén García
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Antonio Sánchez of Mallorca took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Sergi Darder.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Moi Gómez from Osasuna attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 2-2 between Osasuna and Mallorca.
90
Update Update
Juan Cruz from Osasuna has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The chance was set up by Raúl Moro during a quick counterattack.
90
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Ante Budimir from Osasuna attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Samú Costa from Mallorca has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 2-2 between Osasuna and Mallorca. Ante Budimir scores with a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, placing it perfectly into the left corner. The assist comes from Moi Gómez.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Moi Gómez.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Osasuna after Antonio Sánchez allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Osasuna after Johan Mojica allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 9 minutes of stoppage time.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Osasuna 1, Mallorca 2. Kike Barja scores for Osasuna, firing a right-footed shot from close range into the upper part of the net. The assist came from Víctor Muñoz, who delivered a precise cross.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Antonio Sánchez comes on to replace Mateo Joseph.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Mateu Morey replaces Pablo Maffeo.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna has been shown a yellow card.
87
Update Update
Johan Mojica from Mallorca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
Moi Gómez from Osasuna committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Offside call against Osasuna. Ante Budimir has been flagged for being offside.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after David López allowed the ball to go out.
85
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Moi Gómez from Osasuna attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Aimar Oroz.
83
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Samú Costa from Mallorca.
83
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
82
Update Update
VAR Review: Raúl García of Osasuna receives an upgraded card.
82
Red Card Red Card Important
Raúl García from Osasuna has been shown a red card.
81
Update Update
Raúl García from Osasuna committed a foul.
81
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca earned a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca earned a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Kike Barja from Osasuna committed a foul.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Samú Costa allowed the ball to go out.
78
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Raúl García from Osasuna took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal following a corner kick.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Kike Barja comes on to replace Jon Moncayola.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Moi Gómez comes on in place of Javi Galán.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Juan Cruz replaces Jorge Herrando.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Mateo Joseph allowed the ball to go out.
73
Red Card Red Card Important
Jan Virgili from Mallorca has been shown a red card.
72
Corner Corner
Unsuccessful opportunity. Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna attempted a right-footed shot from within the six-yard box, aiming for the left side, but it narrowly missed the top left corner. The assist came from Valentin Rosier, who delivered a cross.
72
Update Update
Raúl Moro from Osasuna earned a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Update Update
Jan Virgili from Mallorca committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Omar Mascarell committed a foul against Mallorca.
70
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna earned a free kick in an offensive position.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leo Román from Mallorca has been shown a yellow card.
69
Update Update
Offside call against Osasuna. Ante Budimir has been flagged for being offside.
68
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Javi Galán from Osasuna fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
68
Update Update
Offside call against Osasuna. Ante Budimir has been flagged for being offside.
68
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Alejandro Catena of Osasuna had a close-range header that went wide. The assist came from Ante Budimir.
67
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ante Budimir of Osasuna attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to convert.
66
Update Update
Martin Valjent from Mallorca commits a handball.
65
Update Update
Mateo Joseph committed a foul against Mallorca.
65
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Alejandro Catena from Osasuna committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after a deflection off Samú Costa.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Jan Virgili replaces Manu Morlanes.
62
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive play underway. Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by goalkeeper Leo Román, who is positioned centrally in the goal. The assist came from Alejandro Catena of Mallorca.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Osasuna 0, Mallorca 2. Vedat Muriqi finds the net for Mallorca with a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, placing it into the bottom right corner. The assist came from Sergi Darder after a swift counterattack.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pablo Maffeo from Mallorca has been shown a yellow card.
58
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna earned a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
David López from Mallorca committed a foul.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Raúl García comes on to replace Rubén García.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Raúl Moro comes on to replace Lucas Torró.
56
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Lucas Torró of Osasuna attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it sailed over the bar. The chance was set up by Javi Galán, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Pablo Maffeo allowed the ball to go out.
54
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Update Update
Jon Moncayola from Osasuna committed a foul.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Sergi Darder replaces Pablo Torre.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: David López comes on to replace Antonio Raíllo.
52
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Ante Budimir from Osasuna takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but the attempt is saved.
52
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
50
Update Update
Martin Valjent from Mallorca committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna earned a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Pablo Torre from Mallorca.
48
Update Update
Pablo Maffeo from Mallorca was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Lucas Torró from Osasuna committed a foul.
46
Attempt Attempt
Aimar Oroz of Osasuna has his shot denied. He attempted a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist was provided by Víctor Muñoz.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Osasuna trailing Mallorca by a score of 0 to 1.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline reading Osasuna 0, Mallorca 1.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rubén García from Osasuna takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The cross was set up by Javi Galán.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
44
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Pablo Torre of Mallorca heads the ball from the middle of the box, but Osasuna's goalkeeper, Sergio Herrera, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Pablo Maffeo, who delivered a well-placed cross.
42
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca earned a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Rubén García from Osasuna committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca is involved in a risky play.
41
Update Update
Alejandro Catena from Osasuna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
39
Update Update
Alejandro Catena from Osasuna committed a foul.
38
Attempt Attempt
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets deflected. The assist comes from Víctor Muñoz.
37
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Manu Morlanes from Mallorca attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Pablo Torre.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mallorca takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Osasuna. Vedat Muriqi scores with a shot from outside the penalty area that finds its way to the center of the net.
33
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Omar Mascarell from Mallorca takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly saved by Sergio Herrera, who positions himself well in the top center of the goal. The assist comes from Manu Morlanes.
32
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
32
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Javi Galán from Osasuna was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
29
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca committed a foul.
29
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Javi Galán from Osasuna attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ante Budimir of Osasuna fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Aimar Oroz, who delivered a cross.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martin Valjent from Mallorca has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Martin Valjent of Mallorca.
27
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was provided by Pablo Maffeo.
25
Update Update
Offside call against Osasuna. Ante Budimir has been caught offside.
24
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Osasuna after Martin Valjent allowed the ball to go out of play.
23
Update Update
Rubén García from Osasuna earned a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Pablo Torre committed a foul against Mallorca.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pablo Torre of Mallorca has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rubén García from Osasuna has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
22
Update Update
Johan Mojica from Mallorca earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
22
Update Update
Rubén García from Osasuna committed a foul.
19
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
19
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Valentin Rosier from Osasuna.
15
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. The attempt is thwarted by goalkeeper Leo Román of Mallorca, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this play comes from Aimar Oroz.
8
Update Update
Offside call against Osasuna. Víctor Muñoz has been flagged for being offside.
8
Update Update
Javi Galán from Osasuna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Mateo Joseph committed a foul against a player from Mallorca.
5
Update Update
Jorge Herrando from Osasuna committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca earned a free kick on the right flank.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Osasuna exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

La Liga View all league clusters