Villarreal vs Elche Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de la Cerámica Sun, 8 Mar - 1:00 PM
La Liga
Villarreal VIL
2 Winner 1
Elche ELC
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 1:00 PM
Tajon Buchanan - 31'
Santiago Mouriño - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
André Silva - 82'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Villarreal 2–1 Elche. The result saw Villarreal take the points. Villarreal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 37%–63%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Villarreal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. García Lozano
J. García Lozano
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
A. Ramo Andrés
A. Ramo Andrés
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
V. García Verdura
V. García Verdura
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
E. Fernández González
E. Fernández González
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Villarreal M. García Toral
M. García Toral
VS
Elche E. Sarabia Armesto
E. Sarabia Armesto
2.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Betis Rank: L
Deportivo Alavés Rank: W
Elche Rank: W
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Getafe Rank: W
Real Sociedad Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osasuna Rank: D
Real Sociedad Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Levante Rank: L
Sevilla Rank: D
Valencia Rank: D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 5 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Villarreal
65.49%
Draw
20.68%
Away Elche
13.83%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.67
32.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Villarreal
Elche
Power Score
66.67
32.8
League Position
4
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Villarreal — Opponent-weighted form score
Elche — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Villarreal Elche

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Villarreal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Elche

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Villarreal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Elche
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.86
25.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.71
49.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Villarreal +2.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Elche -2.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Villarreal
Elche
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Villarreal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Elche
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Villarreal Elche
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Villarreal Elche
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Villarreal
Elche
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Villarreal VIL Home
7 matches
Elche ELC Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
3
Goals
14
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
14
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:04:31+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium
Estadio de la Cerámica
Capacity
23500
Attendance
16301
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
José Francisco García Lozano
Armando Ramo Andrés
Víctor García Verdura
Eliana Fernández González

Statistics

Possession
VIL
40%
ELC
60%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 1
49 Dangerous attacks 64
37 Possession 63
4 Corners 6
16 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 1
9 Goal Kicks 10
7 Successful Headers 15
6 Successful Dribbles 5
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
13 Throwins 19
62 Ball Safe 77
15 Dribble Attempts 13
13 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

80 Attacks 123
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 87
355 Passes 610
42 Long Passes 60
281 Successful Passes 532
17 Successful Long Passes 35
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
15 Key Passes 9

Defensive

40 Duels Won 49
12 Tackles 18
6 Saves 5
15 Interceptions 12

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 9
8 Total Crosses 25

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 16

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
André Silva
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
82'
Event
André Silva
Header / 3rd Goal
77'
Event
André Silva → Rafa Mir
10th Substitution
Event
Thomas Partey → Pape Gueye
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Dani Parejo → Santi Comesaña
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Renato Veiga → Pau Navarro
9th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Martim Neto
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Josan → Buba Sangaré
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Gonzalo Villar → Aleix Febas
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Federico Redondo → Marc Aguado
5th Substitution
Event
Alfon González → Tajon Buchanan
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Gerard Moreno → Alberto Moleiro
3rd Substitution
65'
59'
Event
Martim Neto → Grady Diangana
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Alberto Moleiro
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
43'
Event
Santiago Mouriño
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
41'
Event
Tajon Buchanan
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
31'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
André Silva of Elche has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Villarreal defeating Elche 2-1.
90
Update Update
Gonzalo Villar from Elche earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Josan from Elche has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Thomas Partey committed a foul against Villarreal.
90
Update Update
Sergi Cardona from Villarreal committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Villarreal. Nicolas Pépé has been flagged for being offside.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Elche after Luiz Júnior allowed the ball to go out.
89
Update Update
Santiago Mouriño from Villarreal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Santiago Mouriño from Villarreal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Sergi Cardona from Villarreal committed a foul.
85
Update Update
André Silva committed a foul on a player from Elche.
85
Update Update
David Affengruber from Elche has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Santiago Mouriño from Villarreal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Gerard Moreno from Villarreal attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box following a corner kick.
84
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Nicolas Pépé from Villarreal takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Matías Dituro from Elche makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist comes from Dani Parejo.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Villarreal after Matías Dituro allowed the ball to go out.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Elche after Rafa Marín allowed the ball to go out.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Villarreal 2, Elche 1. André Silva scores for Elche with a header from within the six-yard box, directing it to the upper center of the goal. The assist came from Martim Neto, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
81
Update Update
David Affengruber from Elche has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Georges Mikautadze from Villarreal committed a foul.
80
Update Update
Gerard Moreno from Villarreal earned a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Léo Pétrot from Elche committed a foul.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Elche after Santiago Mouriño allowed the ball to go out of play.
79
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. André Silva from Elche takes a close-range shot with his right foot, but it's deflected.
77
Update Update
Federico Redondo from Elche committed a foul.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: André Silva comes on to replace Rafa Mir.
77
Update Update
Nicolas Pépé from Villarreal earned a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Renato Veiga comes on to replace Pau Navarro due to an injury.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Dani Parejo comes on to replace Santi Comesaña.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Thomas Partey replaces Pape Gueye.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martim Neto of Elche has been shown a yellow card.
74
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal earned a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Martim Neto from Elche committed a foul.
73
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
73
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Pau Navarro from Villarreal.
72
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Elche after Pau Navarro allowed the ball to go out of play.
72
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. David Affengruber from Elche takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
71
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Elche after Luiz Júnior allowed the ball to go out.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Elche after Sergi Cardona allowed the ball to go out.
70
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Victor Chust from Elche takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Luiz Júnior of Villarreal makes a save, diving to his left to secure the ball.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: Gonzalo Villar comes on to replace Aleix Febas.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: Federico Redondo replaces Marc Aguado.
68
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: Josan comes on to replace Buba Sangaré.
67
Update Update
Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Sergi Cardona from Villarreal earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
67
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Aleix Febas from Elche takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
66
Update Update
Offside call against Elche. Álvaro Rodríguez is caught in an offside position.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Gerard Moreno is coming on to replace Alberto Moleiro.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Alfon González replaces Tajon Buchanan.
64
Update Update
Rafa Mir from Elche has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Alberto Moleiro from Villarreal committed a foul.
63
Update Update
Marc Aguado from Elche committed a foul.
63
Update Update
Nicolas Pépé from Villarreal earned a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: Martim Neto replaces Grady Diangana.
57
Update Update
Grady Diangana from Elche committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Nicolas Pépé from Villarreal was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Update Update
Rafa Marín from Villarreal committed a foul.
56
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Georges Mikautadze of Villarreal fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
56
Update Update
Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche earned a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Pape Gueye of Villarreal takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but Matías Dituro, the goalkeeper for Elche, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Alberto Moleiro.
55
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Rafa Marín from Villarreal attempted a header from the center of the penalty area.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Villarreal after Germán Valera allowed the ball to go out.
54
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Pépé from Villarreal had his shot from the right side of the penalty area blocked after receiving an assist from Santi Comesaña.
53
Update Update
Pau Navarro from Villarreal committed a foul.
53
Update Update
Matías Dituro from Elche was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Villarreal after David Affengruber allowed the ball to go out.
51
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rafa Mir from Elche takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
50
Update Update
Santi Comesaña from Villarreal committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Villarreal leading Elche 2-0.
45
Update Update
The second half has begun with the score at Villarreal 2, Elche 0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Villarreal after a deflection off Marc Aguado.
44
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Alberto Moleiro from Villarreal attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Pape Gueye.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
43
Update Update
Aleix Febas from Elche was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Update Update
Alberto Moleiro from Villarreal committed a foul.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Villarreal leads Elche 2-0. Santiago Mouriño scores for Villarreal with a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
40
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Pape Gueye from Villarreal attempts a header from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Pape Gueye from Villarreal took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Tajon Buchanan.
38
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nicolas Pépé from Villarreal takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Alberto Moleiro.
36
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Nicolas Pépé of Villarreal takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box. Matías Dituro from Elche makes a great save, diving to his left to stop the attempt. The assist was provided by Georges Mikautadze.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Pape Gueye of Villarreal took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Santiago Mouriño.
33
Update Update
Santiago Mouriño from Villarreal was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Update Update
Rafa Mir from Elche committed a foul.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Villarreal takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Elche. Tajon Buchanan found the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, sending the ball into the top right corner. The assist came from Pape Gueye.
30
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Villarreal takes the lead, 1-0 against Elche. Tajon Buchanan scores with a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
27
Update Update
Georges Mikautadze of Villarreal earned a free kick in an offensive position.
27
Update Update
Elche's Aleix Febas committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Georges Mikautadze of Villarreal has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
26
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Villarreal after Grady Diangana allowed the ball to go out of play.
26
Update Update
Aleix Febas from Elche committed a foul.
25
Attempt Attempt
Buba Sangaré of Elche attempts a shot from the center of the box with his right foot, but it's successfully blocked.
21
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal earned a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Update Update
Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to convert. The cross was delivered by Rafa Mir.
19
Update Update
Buba Sangaré from Elche committed a foul.
19
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
18
Update Update
Rafa Marín from Villarreal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Match paused - Elche.
16
Update Update
Rafa Marín from Villarreal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Buba Sangaré from Elche committed a foul.
16
Attempt Attempt
Rafa Mir from Elche attempts a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
15
Update Update
Santiago Mouriño from Villarreal committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Santiago Mouriño from Villarreal committed a foul.
13
Update Update
Grady Diangana from Elche has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
13
Update Update
Santi Comesaña from Villarreal committed a foul.
9
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Alberto Moleiro from Villarreal attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
2
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
1
Update Update
Victor Chust from Elche committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Alberto Moleiro from Villarreal has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Villarreal exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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