Espanyol vs Real Oviedo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
RCDE Stadium Tue, 10 Mar - 12:10 AM
La Liga
Espanyol ESY
1 – 1
Real Oviedo OVI
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 12:10 AM
Kike García - 36'
Goal
|
Goal
Alberto Reina - 8'

CONTEXT

The match between Espanyol and Real Oviedo has finished in a 1-1 draw. Both teams found the back of the net early, heading into halftime evenly matched at 1-1, and neither side could find a breakthrough in the second half. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating an Espanyol side that entered as the stronger team with a 48.8% implied win probability. Real Oviedo had just a 22.4% chance of an upset and a 28.9% chance to draw, meaning the final outcome ultimately failed to align with the pre-match market. Espanyol controlled the general tempo of the game, holding 58% of the possession compared to Real Oviedo's 42%. Because expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, it is impossible to definitively state whether the drawn outcome was consistent with the underlying quality of scoring chances created. The match proceeded smoothly without any red cards, meaning major disciplinary events did not artificially impact the final result. Despite Espanyol dropping points at home, the overall efficiency shift was in line with expectations, suggesting that systemic execution remained standard even though the favorites were held to a stalemate.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Espanyol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Rodríguez Moreno
A. Rodríguez Moreno
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
J. Bueno Mateo
J. Bueno Mateo
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
P. Morales Moreno
P. Morales Moreno
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Javier Alberola Rojas
Javier Alberola Rojas
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Espanyol J. González Álvarez
J. González Álvarez
VS
Real Oviedo J. Almada Álves
J. Almada Álves
1.26
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.61
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elche Rank: D
Atlético Madrid Rank: L
Celta de Vigo Rank: D
Villarreal Rank: L
Deportivo Alavés Rank: L
Valencia Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rayo Vallecano Rank: L
Atlético Madrid Rank: L
Real Sociedad Rank: D
Athletic Club Rank: L
Girona Rank: W
FC Barcelona Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Espanyol
47.8%
Draw
29.12%
Away Real Oviedo
23.08%

Movement

Changes since opening
Espanyol
-0.95%
Draw
+0.26%
Real Oviedo
+0.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.68
25.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Espanyol
Real Oviedo
Power Score
45.68
25.89
League Position
7
20
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Espanyol — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Oviedo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Espanyol Real Oviedo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Espanyol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Oviedo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Espanyol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Oviedo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
54.74
16.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.19
54.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Espanyol +3.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Oviedo -3.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Espanyol
Real Oviedo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Espanyol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Oviedo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Espanyol Real Oviedo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Espanyol Real Oviedo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Espanyol
Real Oviedo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Espanyol ESY Home
1 matches
Real Oviedo OVI Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
2
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:11:17+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 10, 2026, 12:10 AM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium
RCDE Stadium
Capacity
40000
Attendance
24807
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alfredo Rodríguez Moreno
Jorge Bueno Mateo
Pablo Morales Moreno
Javier Alberola Rojas

Statistics

Possession
ESY
57%
OVI
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
17 Shots 0
75 Dangerous attacks 16
58 Possession 42
8 Corners 0
13 Free kicks 19
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

15 Throwins 19
17 Successful Headers 23
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
20 Dribble Attempts 19
12 Successful Dribbles 11
3 Goal Kicks 15
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 4
82 Ball Safe 92
20 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

143 Attacks 74
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

36 Successful Long Passes 36
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
86 Successful Passes Percentage 78
490 Passes 383
59 Long Passes 72
420 Successful Passes 298
19 Key Passes 5

Defensive

63 Duels Won 72
7 Interceptions 7
22 Tackles 19
2 Saves 8

Build-up

11 Accurate Crosses 1
34 Total Crosses 3

Discipline

19 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
83'
Event
Javi López
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Fernando Calero → Pol Lozano
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Jofre Carreras → Tyrhys Dolan
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Roberto Fernández
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
75'
72'
Event
Santi Cazorla → Alberto Reina
6th Substitution
Event
Roberto Fernández → Ramón Terrats
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Pere Milla → Cyril Ngonge
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Pol Lozano
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
61'
Event
Santiago Colombatto
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Ilyas Chaira → Thiago Fernández
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Santiago Colombatto → Nicolás Fonseca
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Haissem Hassan → Luka Ilic
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kike García
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Cyril Ngonge
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'
8'
Event
Alberto Reina
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Roberto Fernández from Espanyol attempted a header from the center of the penalty area.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Carlos Romero from Espanyol attempts a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Leandro Cabrera.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Espanyol and Real Oviedo.
90
Update Update
Leandro Cabrera from Espanyol committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Haissem Hassan from Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
89
Update Update
Pere Milla from Espanyol has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
89
Update Update
Kwasi Sibo from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
88
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jofre Carreras from Espanyol takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Aarón Escandell of Real Oviedo makes a great save, stopping the ball at the top center of the goal.
88
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Jofre Carreras from Espanyol takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Leandro Cabrera.
88
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Leandro Cabrera from Espanyol takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
86
Update Update
Santi Cazorla from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Kike García commits a foul against Espanyol.
86
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Pere Milla from Espanyol took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went just wide. The assist came from Kike García.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Javi López from Real Oviedo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
83
Update Update
Javi López from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Fernando Calero from Espanyol has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Espanyol after a play that resulted in Aarón Escandell giving it away.
82
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Kike García from Espanyol attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The chance was set up by Pere Milla, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Espanyol after Aarón Escandell allowed the ball to go out.
81
Update Update
Roberto Fernández from Espanyol earned a free kick in an offensive position.
81
Update Update
Dani Calvo from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Espanyol: Fernando Calero comes on to replace Pol Lozano.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Espanyol: Jofre Carreras comes on to replace Tyrhys Dolan.
78
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Javi López of Real Oviedo attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Haissem Hassan.
77
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Update Update
Clemens Riedel from Espanyol committed a foul.
77
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area, but the shot is blocked.
75
Update Update
Dani Calvo from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Roberto Fernández from Espanyol has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
75
Update Update
Roberto Fernández from Espanyol committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Santi Cazorla commits a handball for Real Oviedo.
73
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Marko Dmitrovic from Espanyol makes a great save in the top left corner. The assist came from Santi Cazorla.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Santi Cazorla comes on to replace Alberto Reina.
72
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar.
71
Update Update
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Update Update
Tyrhys Dolan from Espanyol committed a foul.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Pol Lozano from Espanyol took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but couldn't convert.
69
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Urko González de Zárate from Espanyol fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
69
Update Update
Offside call against Espanyol. Pere Milla has been flagged for being in an offside position.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Espanyol: Roberto Fernández comes on to replace Ramon Terrats.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Espanyol after Aarón Escandell allowed the ball to go out.
66
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Ramon Terrats from Espanyol takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
66
Update Update
Aarón Escandell from Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Update Update
Pere Milla committed a foul on an Espanyol player.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Espanyol after Dani Calvo allowed the ball to go out.
62
Update Update
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
62
Update Update
Pol Lozano from Espanyol committed a foul.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Espanyol: Pere Milla comes on to replace Cyril Ngonge.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pol Lozano of Espanyol has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Colombatto of Real Oviedo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
61
Update Update
Ramon Terrats from Espanyol was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
61
Update Update
Santiago Colombatto committed a foul against Real Oviedo.
60
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
60
Update Update
Pol Lozano from Espanyol has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Update Update
Nacho Vidal committed a foul against a player from Real Oviedo.
57
Update Update
Clemens Riedel from Espanyol committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Ilyas Chaira replaces Thiago Fernández.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Ilyas Chaira comes on to replace Thiago Fernández.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Santiago Colombatto comes on to replace Nicolás Fonseca.
55
Update Update
Kike García from Espanyol earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
55
Update Update
Dani Calvo from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Tyrhys Dolan from Espanyol took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left.
54
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Cyril Ngonge from Espanyol takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Aarón Escandell, the goalkeeper for Real Oviedo, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal. The assist for this attempt comes from Omar El Hilali.
53
Update Update
Javi López from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Ramon Terrats of Espanyol committed a foul.
52
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Cyril Ngonge of Espanyol attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Ramon Terrats.
51
Update Update
Nacho Vidal from Real Oviedo commits a foul.
51
Update Update
Nacho Vidal from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Espanyol after Kwasi Sibo allowed the ball to go out.
46
Update Update
Ramon Terrats from Espanyol committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo earned a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Thiago Fernández from Real Oviedo earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Urko González de Zárate from Espanyol committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Alberto Reina from Real Oviedo earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Espanyol and Real Oviedo.
45
Update Update
Omar El Hilali from Espanyol committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 1-1 between Espanyol and Real Oviedo.
44
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Urko González de Zárate from Espanyol attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
43
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Pol Lozano from Espanyol attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Carlos Romero.
41
Update Update
Javi López from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Cyril Ngonge from Espanyol committed a foul.
41
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Cyril Ngonge from Espanyol takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
39
Update Update
Tyrhys Dolan from Espanyol committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Nacho Vidal from Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Javi López from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Cyril Ngonge from Espanyol earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between Espanyol and Real Oviedo. Kike García from Espanyol scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
34
Update Update
Clemens Riedel from Espanyol committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Javi López from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Kike García from Espanyol has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Tyrhys Dolan from Espanyol takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Aarón Escandell of Real Oviedo makes a save, directing the ball to the left corner. The assist comes from Clemens Riedel.
27
Update Update
Omar El Hilali from Espanyol committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Thiago Fernández from Real Oviedo earned a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Espanyol, following a play that resulted in Aarón Escandell giving it away.
25
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Espanyol after Aarón Escandell allowed the ball to go out.
24
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Espanyol after Javi López allowed the ball to go out of play.
22
Update Update
Thiago Fernández from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Omar El Hilali from Espanyol has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo earned a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Update Update
Pol Lozano from Espanyol committed a foul.
18
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Tyrhys Dolan of Espanyol attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
15
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Carlos Romero from Espanyol took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Ramon Terrats.
15
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Carlos Romero from Espanyol attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but failed to find the target.
13
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tyrhys Dolan from Espanyol fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Cyril Ngonge.
12
Update Update
Cyril Ngonge from Espanyol committed a foul.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cyril Ngonge of Espanyol has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
12
Update Update
Alberto Reina from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Kike García from Espanyol attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Cyril Ngonge, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Espanyol after a deflection off Alberto Reina.
9
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Espanyol after Aarón Escandell allowed the ball to go out.
9
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort is underway. Carlos Romero from Espanyol takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Aarón Escandell of Real Oviedo makes a save in the right corner. The assist came from Pol Lozano.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Real Oviedo takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Espanyol. Alberto Reina scored with a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
6
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ramon Terrats from Espanyol takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Carlos Romero.
5
Update Update
Alberto Reina from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
Urko González de Zárate from Espanyol committed a foul.
4
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Pol Lozano from Espanyol attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick.
2
Update Update
Kwasi Sibo from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Tyrhys Dolan from Espanyol has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
1
Update Update
Urko González de Zárate from Espanyol has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Alberto Reina from Real Oviedo committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Espanyol exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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