Famalicão vs Arouca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho Fri, 6 Mar - 8:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Famalicão Famalicão
1 Winner 0
Arouca Arouca
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 8:15 PM
Rodrigo Pinheiro - 82'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Famalicão and Arouca has officially finished, with the home side securing a 1-0 victory. After a tightly contested first half that ended completely scoreless, Famalicão managed to find the breakthrough in the second period to claim all three points. The hosts controlled the general tempo of the game, edging the ball possession with 55% compared to Arouca's 45%. This result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations. Famalicão entered the contest as the clear favorites, holding a 57.5% win probability compared to a 24.8% chance of a draw and just 17.7% for an Arouca upset. Because the stronger team secured the victory, the outcome was market-aligned, though it still registered a significant 42.5% deviation level leaning toward the victorious home side. In terms of underlying performance metrics, the final efficiency shift was perfectly in line with pre-game projections. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning a direct comparison between chance creation and the final scoreline cannot be assessed. Furthermore, the match was a disciplined affair; neither team received a red card, ensuring the narrow result was determined entirely through 11-on-11 play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Famalicão showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Vila Pereira
N. Vila Pereira
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Carvalho Nobre
A. Carvalho Nobre
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Serra Jorge Pereira
F. Serra Jorge Pereira
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Silva Pinho
J. Silva Pinho
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Famalicão H. Carvalho Oliveira
H. Carvalho Oliveira
VS
Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rio Ave Rank: D
Casa Pia Rank: W
Sporting CP Rank: L
AVS Rank: W
Gil Vicente Rank: L
Tondela Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: L
Nacional Rank: W
Casa Pia Rank: L
Vitória Guimarães Rank: W
Rio Ave Rank: W
Sporting CP Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Famalicão
57.48%
Draw
24.82%
Away Arouca
17.7%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52
34.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Famalicão
Arouca
Power Score
52
34.67
League Position
6
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Famalicão — Opponent-weighted form score
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Famalicão Arouca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Famalicão

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arouca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Famalicão ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arouca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.09
25.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.56
27.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Famalicão +0.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Arouca -0.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Famalicão
Arouca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Famalicão
vs
Arouca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Famalicão Arouca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Famalicão Arouca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Famalicão
Arouca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Famalicão Famalicão Home
9 matches
Arouca Arouca Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
8
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:32:31+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 08:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Capacity
5307
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nélson Filipe Vila Pereira
António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre
Francisco João Serra Jorge Pereira
João Pedro Silva Pinho

Statistics

Possession
Famalicão
54%
Arouca
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 4
58 Dangerous attacks 30
55 Possession 45
5 Corners 1
16 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

20 Throwins 25
6 Goal Kicks 11
10 Successful Headers 19
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
5 Successful Dribbles 4
11 Dribble Attempts 16
4 Substitutions 5
65 Ball Safe 63
11 Goal Attempts 8
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

85 Attacks 68
2 Big Chances Missed 1
4 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 85
8 Key Passes 8
53 Long Passes 50
377 Successful Passes 328
32 Successful Long Passes 28
446 Passes 386
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56

Defensive

4 Saves 5
18 Tackles 10
11 Interceptions 9

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 7
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

5 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 17

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Léo Realpe → Antoine Joujou
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Mathias de Amorim
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
84'
83'
Event
Amadou Dante → Bas Kuipers
6th Substitution
83'
Event
José Silva → Diogo Monteiro
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Miguel Puche → Hyun-ju Lee
7th Substitution
Event
Rodrigo Pinheiro
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
82'
75'
Event
Pablo Gozálbez → Alfonso Trezza
5th Substitution
Event
Roméo Beney → Gil Dias
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Pedro Santos → Marcos Peña
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Umar Abubakar → Simon Elisor
2nd Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Dylan Nandín → Iván Barbero
1st Substitution
51'
Event
Iván Barbero
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Famalicão after Amadou Dante allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Espen van Ee from Arouca committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Ibrahima Ba from Famalicão has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Boris Popovic from Arouca heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from José Silva.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Another offensive push underway. Léo Realpe from Famalicão attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area, but Ignacio de Arruabarrena, the goalkeeper for Arouca, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Pedro Santos, who delivered a cross into the box.
90
Update Update
Dylan Nandín from Arouca committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Roméo Beney from Famalicão attempts a left-footed strike from close range, but it's blocked. The assist came from Léo Realpe.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Famalicão: Léo Realpe comes off, and Antoine Joujou takes his place.
89
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
José Silva from Arouca committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Famalicão is caught offside. Umar Abubakar has positioned himself ahead of the last defender.
85
Update Update
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Dylan Nandín from Arouca heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but Lazar Carevic from Famalicão makes a great save, diving to his left. The assist came from Amadou Dante, who delivered a precise cross.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Amadou Dante replaces Bas Kuipers.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
84
Update Update
Taichi Fukui from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: José Silva replaces Diogo Monteiro.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Miguel Puche comes on to replace Lee Hyun-Ju.
83
Update Update
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão committed a foul.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Famalicão takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Arouca. Rodrigo Pinheiro scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the left corner of the net.
81
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
81
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Dylan Nandín from Arouca takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Lazar Carevic of Famalicão makes a great save, diving to his right to keep the ball out of the net.
80
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Diogo Monteiro from Arouca.
79
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Roméo Beney from Famalicão took a left-footed shot from the center of the box that narrowly missed to the left. The assist came from Umar Abubakar.
77
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Umar Abubakar of Famalicão attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert. The chance was set up by Pedro Santos, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Famalicão after a foul by Diogo Monteiro.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Pablo Gozálbez comes on to replace Alfonso Trezza.
73
Update Update
Boris Popovic from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Update Update
Ibrahima Ba from Famalicão committed a foul.
73
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Umar Abubakar of Famalicão attempts a header from the center of the penalty area, but Ignacio de Arruabarrena of Arouca makes a save in the top right corner. The assist came from Gustavo Sá, who also delivered a header.
72
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Roméo Beney from Famalicão takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly denied by Ignacio de Arruabarrena of Arouca, who makes a save in the top right corner.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Famalicão after Ignacio de Arruabarrena's defensive play.
71
Update Update
Taichi Fukui from Arouca was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
71
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Umar Abubakar from Famalicão committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Boris Popovic from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arouca after a foul by Lazar Carevic.
68
Update Update
José Fontán from Arouca committed a foul.
68
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push is underway. Alfonso Trezza from Arouca takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper, Lazar Carevic, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Dylan Nandín, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
68
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão earned a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Famalicão: Roméo Beney comes on to replace Gil Dias.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Famalicão: Umar Abubakar comes on to replace Simon Elisor.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Famalicão: Pedro Santos comes on to replace Marcos Peña due to an injury.
64
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Marcos Peña from Famalicão.
64
Update Update
Espen van Ee from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Dylan Nandín replaces Barbero.
58
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
58
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca committed a foul.
57
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Simon Elisor from Famalicão takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
55
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Espen van Ee from Arouca took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Taichi Fukui.
53
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Diogo Monteiro.
53
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Gil Dias from Famalicão attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
51
Update Update
Marcos Peña from Famalicão was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Barbero committed a foul on Arouca.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Barbero of Arouca has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
50
Update Update
Rafa Soares from Famalicão committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Gil Dias committed a foul against Famalicão.
48
Update Update
Gil Dias committed a foul against Famalicão.
47
Update Update
Gil Dias committed a foul against Famalicão.
47
Update Update
Bas Kuipers from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Famalicão 0, Arouca 0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arouca, following a foul by Mathias de Amorim.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Ignacio de Arruabarrena from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Famalicão 0, Arouca 0.
44
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Antoine Joujou from Famalicão earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
43
Update Update
Gil Dias from Famalicão has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Update Update
Barbero committed a foul on Arouca.
42
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Gustavo Sá from Famalicão attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Gil Dias, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Famalicão after Boris Popovic allowed it.
39
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
José Fontán from Arouca committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Bas Kuipers from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Gil Dias committed a foul against Famalicão.
36
Update Update
Espen van Ee from Arouca committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
35
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Rodrigo Pinheiro from Famalicão attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Gil Dias.
33
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Boris Popovic from Arouca.
31
Update Update
Espen van Ee from Arouca committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Barbero from Arouca took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Naïs Djouahra.
29
Update Update
Offside call against Famalicão. Simon Elisor has been caught in an offside position.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Famalicão after a foul by Diogo Monteiro.
28
Update Update
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Espen van Ee from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Boris Popovic from Arouca committed a foul.
24
Update Update
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
23
Update Update
Offside call against Arouca. Lee Hyun-Ju has been flagged for being offside.
21
Update Update
Famalicão is flagged for offside. Simon Elisor has been caught in an offside position.
19
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Antoine Joujou from Famalicão attempted a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box, aiming for the left side of the goal, but it went just wide. The assist came from Rodrigo Pinheiro, who delivered a well-placed cross.
17
Update Update
Barbero commits a foul on Arouca.
17
Update Update
Marcos Peña from Famalicão was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Simon Elisor committed a foul against a player from Famalicão.
16
Update Update
Espen van Ee from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Simon Elisor from Famalicão takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly stopped by Ignacio de Arruabarrena of Arouca, who makes a save in the upper center of the goal. The play was set up by Justin de Haas, who delivered a precise through ball.
15
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Naïs Djouahra from Arouca attempts a header from outside the penalty area, but Lazar Carevic from Famalicão makes a save at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Espen van Ee, who delivered a cross.
13
Update Update
Antoine Joujou from Famalicão earned a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Diogo Monteiro from Arouca committed a foul.
12
Update Update
Alfonso Trezza from Arouca was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Justin de Haas committed a foul against Famalicão.
11
Update Update
Offside call against Arouca. Naïs Djouahra has been caught offside.
9
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive move underway. Gil Dias from Famalicão takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Ignacio de Arruabarrena from Arouca makes a save, stopping it at the top center of the goal.
8
Update Update
Marcos Peña from Famalicão was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Barbero committed a foul on Arouca.
6
Update Update
Offside call against Famalicão. Rodrigo Pinheiro has been caught offside.
5
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Taichi Fukui from Arouca attempted a right-footed shot from over 35 yards during a quick counterattack, but it sailed over the goal.
4
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Bas Kuipers from Arouca attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Naïs Djouahra.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Famalicão exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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