Nacional vs Estoril Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio da Madeira Sun, 15 Mar - 3:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Nacional Nacional
0 Winner 1
Estoril ETR
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 3:30 PM
|
Goal
Felix Bacher - 9'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Nacional 0–1 Estoril. The result saw Estoril take the points. Estoril showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 55%–45%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Estoril showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Monteiro Fonseca
M. Monteiro Fonseca
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
D. Rodrigues Soares
D. Rodrigues Soares
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
J. Ferreira Martins
J. Ferreira Martins
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
V. Fernandes Ferreira
V. Fernandes Ferreira
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
VS
Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Moreirense Rank: 68 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Casa Pia Rank: 65 D
Sporting CP Rank: 90 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: 64 D
Sporting CP Rank: 89 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 73 W
AVS Rank: 56 L
Tondela Rank: 61 D
Santa Clara Rank: 64 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nacional
41.86%
Draw
26%
Away Estoril
32.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.76
69.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nacional
Estoril
Power Score
62.76
69.13
League Position
16
7
Global Rank
371
195

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nacional Estoril

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nacional

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Estoril

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nacional ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estoril
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.64
27.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.56
33.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nacional +0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Estoril -0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nacional
Estoril
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nacional ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estoril
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nacional Estoril
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nacional Estoril
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nacional
Estoril
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nacional Nacional Home
3 matches
Estoril ETR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:21:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
K. Pereira Azarias
Brazil
1 K. Pereira Azarias
A. Núñez Duarte
Paraguay
16 A. Núñez Duarte
L. Rodrigues dos Santos
Brazil
34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
J. Lima Cardoso
Brazil
38 J. Lima Cardoso
L. Vallier
France
24 L. Vallier
M. Baeza Pérez
Substitution
Spain
8 M. Baeza Pérez
Matheus Dias
Substitution
Brazil
6 Matheus Dias
J. Organista da Silva
Substitution
Portugal
26 J. Organista da Silva
G. Fonseca de Souza
Substitution
Brazil
27 G. Fonseca de Souza
J. Ramírez Díaz
Venezuela
9 (C) J. Ramírez Díaz
P. Pereira da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 P. Pereira da Silva
J. Robles Blázquez
Spain
1 J. Robles Blázquez
R. Sánchez Sendra
Spain
2 R. Sánchez Sendra
F. Bacher
Austria
25 F. Bacher
F. Reis Ferreira
Portugal
4 F. Reis Ferreira
P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
J. Holsgrove
Scotland
10 J. Holsgrove
A. Tsoungui
Belgium
5 A. Tsoungui
A. Orellana Gómez
Substitution
Spain
6 A. Orellana Gómez
A. Marqués Méndez
Substitution
Venezuela
9 A. Marqués Méndez
Y. Begraoui
Substitution
Morocco
14 Y. Begraoui
J. Antunes Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
12 (C) J. Antunes Carvalho

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio da Madeira
Capacity
5132
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca
David Moisés Rodrigues Soares
João Pedro Ferreira Martins
Vitor Jorge Fernandes Ferreira

Statistics

Possession
Nacional
54%
ETR
46%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 6
50 Dangerous attacks 28
55 Possession 45
5 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 16
5 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

81 Ball Safe 86
14 Dribble Attempts 23
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
7 Successful Dribbles 11
23 Successful Headers 20
26 Throwins 20
7 Goal Kicks 13
0 Assists 1
11 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

104 Attacks 70
1 Big Chances Missed 2
0 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 76
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
33 Successful Long Passes 21
296 Successful Passes 262
397 Passes 343
76 Long Passes 61
12 Key Passes 10

Defensive

11 Interceptions 9
21 Tackles 14
1 Saves 4

Build-up

32 Total Crosses 9
12 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

16 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Starting XI ▼

1
Kaique
Kaique Goalkeeper
5.68
16
Alan Nuñez
Alan Nuñez Defender
6.83
24
L. Vallier
L. Vallier Defender
7.24
34
Léo Santos
Léo Santos Defender
7.19
38
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor Defender
7.68
6
Matheus Dias
Matheus Dias Midfielder
6.79
18
André Sousa
André Sousa
Midfielder79'
6.54
8
Miguel Baeza
Miguel Baeza Midfielder
6.97
19
Lucas João
Lucas João
Attacker63'
6.68
26
Joel Silva
Joel Silva Midfielder
6.28
15
Chiheb Labidi
Chiheb Labidi
Midfielder46'
6.39
9
Jesús Ramírez
Jesús Ramírez (C) Attacker
6.95
11
Paulinho Bóia
Paulinho Bóia Attacker
7.29
10
Daniel Jr
Daniel Jr
Midfielder79'
6.45
27
Gabriel Veron
Gabriel Veron Attacker
6.53
99
Pablo Ruan
Pablo Ruan
Attacker63'
6.46
Referee : Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Starting XI ▼

1
Joel Robles
Joel Robles Goalkeeper
7.43
2
Ricard Sánchez
Ricard Sánchez Defender
6.83
4
Ferro
Ferro Defender
7.88
22
Pedro Carvalho
Pedro Carvalho Defender
6.59
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral
Defender78'
6.46
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Defender
7.52
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Midfielder
7.6
6
Jandro Orellana
Jandro Orellana Midfielder
6.65
8
Xeka
Xeka
Midfielder59'
6.77
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove Midfielder
7.08
9
Alejandro Marqués
Alejandro Marqués Attacker
6.42
99
Rafik Guitane
Rafik Guitane
Midfielder59'
6.4
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho (C) Attacker
7.32
21
Pizzi
Pizzi
Midfielder78'
6.49
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Attacker
6.16
19
André Lacximicant
André Lacximicant
Attacker59'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Ricard Sánchez
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
Event
11th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Pablo Ruan
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Chiheb Labidi
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
88'
Event
Joel Robles
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Ze Vitor
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
83'
Event
10th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Lucas João
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
André Sousa → Matheus Dias
10th Substitution
79'
Event
Daniel Jr → Paulinho Bóia
9th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Pedro Amaral → Pedro Carvalho
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Pizzi → João Carvalho
8th Substitution
Event
Jesús Ramírez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
Event
9th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Lucas João → Miguel Baeza
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Pablo Ruan → Gabriel Veron
6th Substitution
63'
59'
Event
Rafik Guitane → Alejandro Marqués
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Xeka → Jandro Orellana
4th Substitution
59'
Event
André Lacximicant → Yanis Begraoui
3rd Substitution
Event
Chiheb Labidi → Joel Silva
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
16'
Event
João Carvalho
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Event
Felix Bacher
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with the final score being CD Nacional 0, Estoril 1.
90
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui of Estoril is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
90
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Xeka from Estoril took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left. The attempt was set up by André Lacximicant.
90
Update Update
Alan Núñez from CD Nacional earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
André Lacximicant from Estoril committed a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Antef Tsoungui from Estoril.
90
Update Update
Léo Santos from CD Nacional earns a free kick in the defensive zone.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Estoril after Alan Núñez allowed the ball to go out.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Chiheb Labidi from CD Nacional receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pablo Ruan from CD Nacional receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas João of CD Nacional.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
André Sousa from CD Nacional committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Xeka from Estoril earns a free kick in their own half.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Estoril after Zé Vítor allowed the ball to go out.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Felix Bacher from Estoril receives a yellow card.
88
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Daniel Júnior from CD Nacional tries to strike with his right foot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
86
Update Update
Zé Vítor from CD Nacional is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
86
Update Update
André Lacximicant from Estoril commits a foul.
85
Update Update
Daniel Júnior from CD Nacional earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional.
85
Update Update
André Lacximicant from Estoril commits a foul.
85
Update Update
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Zé Vítor from CD Nacional receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
83
Update Update
Zé Vítor from CD Nacional committed a foul.
83
Update Update
André Lacximicant from Estoril earns a free kick on the right side of the field.
82
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional headed the ball from the center of the box, but it went wide to the right. The cross was delivered by Léo Santos.
81
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
81
Update Update
The match between Ferro and Estoril is currently paused due to an injury.
80
Update Update
Ferro has been awarded a free kick in their own half.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas João of CD Nacional.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas João from CD Nacional receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: André Sousa comes on to take the place of Paulinho Bóia.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Daniel Júnior comes on to take the place of Matheus Dias.
79
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Pedro Amaral comes on to take the place of Pedro Carvalho.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Pedro Amaral comes on to take the place of Pedro Carvalho.
77
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Antef Tsoungui from Estoril.
76
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
74
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Estoril after Matheus Dias allowed the ball to go out of play.
73
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the right. He was assisted by Lucas João.
72
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Rafik Guitane from Estoril tries a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Antef Tsoungui.
69
Update Update
Ricard Sánchez commits a foul for Estoril.
69
Update Update
Pablo Ruan from CD Nacional earns a free kick on the right side of the field.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Zé Vítor from CD Nacional takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes wide to the right.
67
Update Update
Zé Vítor from CD Nacional earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional.
66
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
64
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to CD Nacional after Pedro Carvalho allowed the ball to go out of play.
64
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the right of the goal. He was assisted by Chuchu Ramírez.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Lucas João comes on to take the place of Miguel Baeza.
62
Update Update
Matheus Dias from CD Nacional commits a foul.
62
Update Update
Xeka from Estoril earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
61
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to CD Nacional after Ferro conceded the ball.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: André Lacximicant comes on to take the place of Yanis Begraoui.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Rafik Guitane comes on to take the place of Alejandro Marqués.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Xeka comes on to take the place of Jandro Orellana.
58
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove of Estoril commits a handball.
56
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional earns a free kick in the offensive zone.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! João Carvalho from Estoril took a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it went wide to the right. He was set up by Ricard Sánchez after a quick counter-attack.
56
Update Update
Ferro commits a foul against Estoril.
54
Update Update
Offside call against CD Nacional. Paulinho Bóia has been flagged for being in an offside position.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that goes just wide to the left. He was set up by Chiheb Labidi.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional.
51
Corner Corner
A close-range header from Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional is kept out by Joel Robles of Estoril, who makes a save in the top left corner. The opportunity was set up by a cross from Paulinho Bóia.
50
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Zé Vítor from CD Nacional directed a header from the center of the box, but it went over the goal and to the left. The chance came after a corner, with Paulinho Bóia providing the cross.
49
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to CD Nacional after a foul by Felix Bacher.
47
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional directed a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it went off target.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with the score at CD Nacional 0 and Estoril 1.
45
Update Update
Alan Núñez of CD Nacional commits a foul.
45
Update Update
Alejandro Marqués from Estoril earns a free kick in his team's defensive area.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Chiheb Labidi comes on to take the place of Joel Silva.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Chiheb Labidi comes on to take the place of Joel Silva.
44
Attempt Attempt
The shot was stopped. Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional took a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but the goalkeeper made the save.
42
Update Update
Alejandro Marqués commits a foul for Estoril.
42
Update Update
Gabriel Veron from CD Nacional earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
41
Update Update
João Carvalho from Estoril earns a free kick on the right flank.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional.
40
Attempt Attempt
A shot from outside the box by Jordan Holsgrove of Estoril is denied as the goalkeeper makes the save.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Felix Bacher from Estoril attempted a header from the left side of the penalty area after a set piece.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional.
38
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Alejandro Marqués from Estoril attempted a header from just a few yards out.
37
Update Update
Matheus Dias from CD Nacional committed a foul.
37
Update Update
João Carvalho from Estoril earns a free kick on the right flank.
35
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area.
32
Attempt Attempt
The shot was blocked. Zé Vítor from CD Nacional took a left-footed strike from over 35 yards out, but the goalkeeper managed to make the save.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Paulinho Bóia of CD Nacional.
30
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
30
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Matheus Dias.
28
Update Update
Offside call against CD Nacional. Léo Santos has been flagged for being in an offside position.
27
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
27
Update Update
Pedro Carvalho from Estoril commits a foul.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Joel Silva of CD Nacional.
25
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
24
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ferro takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes wide.
23
Update Update
Offside call against CD Nacional. Miguel Baeza has been flagged for being in an offside position.
21
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to CD Nacional after Pedro Carvalho allowed the ball to go out.
20
Update Update
Ferro commits a foul against Estoril.
20
Update Update
Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional is awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
19
Update Update
Alejandro Marqués commits a foul for Estoril.
19
Update Update
Alejandro Marqués commits a foul for Estoril.
17
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Alejandro Marqués from Estoril takes a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jordan Holsgrove.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
João Carvalho from Estoril receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
16
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional is awarded a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
16
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
13
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Yanis Begraoui from Estoril took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Antef Tsoungui.
12
Update Update
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
12
Update Update
Léo Santos from CD Nacional commits a foul.
10
Attempt Attempt
A shot from outside the penalty area by Paulinho Bóia of CD Nacional is denied by Joel Robles of Estoril, who makes a save in the top center of the goal. The attempt was set up by Miguel Baeza.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! CD Nacional 0, Estoril 1. Felix Bacher scores for Estoril with a header from just a few yards out after a corner kick.
8
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Estoril, following a deflection off Matheus Dias.
6
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Begraoui of Estoril had a shot with his right foot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The attempt was set up by Ricard Sánchez.
5
Update Update
Offside call against Estoril. Yanis Begraoui has been flagged for being in an offside position.
4
Update Update
João Carvalho from Estoril earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Paulinho Bóia of CD Nacional.
1
Update Update
Jandro Orellana from Estoril commits a foul.
1
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional earns a free kick on the left side of the field.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Estoril exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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