Estoril vs Casa Pia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota Sun, 8 Mar - 12:16 AM
Liga Portugal
Estoril ETR
0 – 0
Casa Pia Casa Pia
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 12:16 AM

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Estoril 0–0 Casa Pia. The match ended in a draw. Estoril showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 64%–36%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Estoril showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Correia Gonçalves Morte
J. Correia Gonçalves Morte
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
B. Ribeiro Pires Costa
B. Ribeiro Pires Costa
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
J. Alves Fernandes
J. Alves Fernandes
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
C. Ferreira Campos
C. Ferreira Campos
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
VS
Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
1.55
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: L
Gil Vicente Rank: W
AVS Rank: L
Tondela Rank: D
Santa Clara Rank: W
Vitória Guimarães Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Moreirense Rank: D
Famalicão Rank: L
Arouca Rank: W
Nacional Rank: D
Porto Rank: W
AVS Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Estoril
54.73%
Draw
24.82%
Away Casa Pia
20.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.33
32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Estoril
Casa Pia
Power Score
45.33
32
League Position
8
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Estoril Casa Pia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Estoril

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Casa Pia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Estoril ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Casa Pia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.64
29.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.03
16.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Estoril -1.25 Efficiency Index
vs
Casa Pia +1.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Estoril
Casa Pia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Estoril ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Casa Pia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Estoril Casa Pia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Estoril Casa Pia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Estoril
Casa Pia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Estoril ETR Home
7 matches
Casa Pia Casa Pia Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
3
Goals
13
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
13
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:16:20+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 12:16 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Capacity
8000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
João Pedro Correia Gonçalves Morte
Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa
Jorge António Alves Fernandes
Catarina Isabel Ferreira Campos

Statistics

Possession
ETR
60%
Casa Pia
40%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 5
33 Dangerous attacks 29
64 Possession 36
4 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Throwins 17
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
11 Successful Headers 10
18 Dribble Attempts 11
10 Goal Kicks 11
11 Successful Dribbles 5
2 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
74 Ball Safe 65
0 Injuries 2
7 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

2 Counter Attacks 1
112 Attacks 81
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

473 Successful Passes 228
541 Passes 292
48 Long Passes 55
87 Successful Passes Percentage 78
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
14 Successful Long Passes 24
6 Key Passes 5

Defensive

11 Tackles 13
2 Saves 1
9 Interceptions 7

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 23
1 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

10 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jordan Holsgrove
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90'
86'
Event
João Marques → Jérémy Livolant
7th Substitution
Event
Gonçalo Costa → Pedro Carvalho
6th Substitution
83'
76'
Event
Iyad Mohamed → Seba Pérez
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Kevin Prieto → Gaizka Larrazabal
5th Substitution
Event
Xeka → Jandro Orellana
3rd Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Pedro Rosas → Abdu Conté
2nd Substitution
Event
Ricard Sánchez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
46'
Event
Dailon Livramento → Korede Osundina
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Korede Osundina
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
18'
Event
Kaly
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
18'
Event
5th Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score remaining Estoril 0, Casa Pia 0.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rafael Brito from Casa Pia took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
90
Update Update
João Marques from Casa Pia earned a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Alejandro Marqués from Estoril committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Cassiano committed a foul against Casa Pia.
89
Update Update
Iyad Mohamed from Casa Pia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Cassiano from Casa Pia takes a right-footed shot from close range but sends it over the bar.
88
Corner Corner
Another offensive play unfolds. Dailon Livramento from Casa Pia takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Joel Robles from Estoril makes a save in the right corner. The assist came from Cassiano, who set him up with a header.
87
Update Update
Kevin Prieto from Casa Pia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
Gonçalo Costa from Estoril committed a foul.
87
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gonçalo Costa from Estoril takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: João Marques comes on to replace Jérémy Livolant.
86
Update Update
Cassiano commits a foul on a Casa Pia player.
86
Update Update
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril earned a free kick in an offensive position.
85
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Alejandro Marqués from Estoril attempts a header from close range, but it sails high and to the left. The chance came following a corner, with Jordan Holsgrove providing the cross.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a deflection off Patrick Sequeira.
84
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Rafik Guitane.
84
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Estoril after André Geraldes allowed the ball to go out.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Gonçalo Costa comes on to replace Pedro Carvalho.
82
Update Update
Iyad Mohamed from Casa Pia committed a foul.
82
Update Update
Xeka from Estoril has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a deflection off Pedro Rosas.
79
Update Update
Cassiano commits a foul against Casa Pia.
79
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
79
Update Update
Cassiano commits a foul against a player from Casa Pia.
78
Attempt Attempt
Near miss! Rafik Guitane from Estoril took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that came agonizingly close to finding the back of the net. The assist was provided by Ferro.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Kevin Prieto comes on to replace Gaizka Larrazabal, who is leaving the pitch due to an injury.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Iyad Mohamed is coming on to replace Seba Pérez.
72
Update Update
Khaly from Casa Pia has earned a free kick in their defensive area.
72
Update Update
Rafik Guitane from Estoril committed a foul.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Pedro Rosas comes on to replace Abdu Conté.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Xeka comes off, and Jandro Orellana takes his place.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after André Geraldes allowed the ball to go out.
67
Update Update
Abdu Conté from Casa Pia committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Rafik Guitane from Estoril has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
65
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Jandro Orellana from Estoril takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
63
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Rafik Guitane from Estoril attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Jandro Orellana.
60
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
60
Update Update
Rafael Brito from Casa Pia committed a foul.
58
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Yanis Begraoui from Estoril attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it soared high and to the right of the goal. The assist was provided by Rafik Guitane.
57
Attempt Attempt
Abdu Conté from Casa Pia takes a shot from outside the penalty area with his left foot and strikes the crossbar. The assist came from Dailon Livramento.
56
Update Update
Jandro Orellana from Estoril committed a foul.
56
Update Update
Seba Pérez from Casa Pia was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Cassiano commits a foul on a Casa Pia player.
55
Update Update
Jérémy Livolant from Casa Pia committed a foul.
54
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
54
Update Update
Match interruption - Estoril.
52
Update Update
Yanis Begraoui from Estoril earned a free kick in the defensive area.
52
Update Update
Seba Pérez from Casa Pia committed a foul.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after a deflection off Felix Bacher.
49
Update Update
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Jérémy Livolant from Casa Pia was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
48
Update Update
Cassiano from Casa Pia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Felix Bacher from Estoril committed a foul.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after Antef Tsoungui was deemed to have committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Estoril 0, Casa Pia 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Casa Pia. Cassiano has been caught offside.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Dailon Livramento comes on to replace Korede Osundina.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Estoril 0, Casa Pia 0.
42
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
42
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Cassiano from Casa Pia attempted a right-footed shot from close range but sent it over the bar. The assist came from Abdu Conté, who delivered a cross.
41
Update Update
Match interruption - Estoril.
40
Update Update
Korede Osundina from Casa Pia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Pedro Carvalho from Estoril committed a foul.
38
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Jérémy Livolant from Casa Pia attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left following a corner kick.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after Felix Bacher allowed the ball to go out.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Korede Osundina from Casa Pia has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
35
Update Update
Rafik Guitane from Estoril has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
35
Update Update
Korede Osundina from Casa Pia committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
34
Update Update
Gaizka Larrazabal from Casa Pia committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Khaly committed a foul against a player from Casa Pia.
23
Update Update
Jandro Orellana from Estoril was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Update Update
Pedro Carvalho from Estoril committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Abdu Conté from Casa Pia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push is underway. Jérémy Livolant from Casa Pia takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Joel Robles from Estoril makes a save, diving to his right. The assist came from Abdu Conté.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after Gaizka Larrazabal allowed the ball to go out.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Khaly from Casa Pia has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
18
Update Update
Yanis Begraoui from Estoril earned a free kick in an offensive position.
18
Update Update
Khaly committed a foul against Casa Pia.
16
Update Update
Offside call against Casa Pia. Jérémy Livolant has been flagged for being in an offside position.
15
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Yanis Begraoui from Estoril takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jandro Orellana.
13
Update Update
Offside call against Estoril. Ricard Sánchez has been flagged for being in an offside position.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia, following a foul by Ricard Sánchez.
3
Update Update
Jérémy Livolant from Casa Pia was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
3
Update Update
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril committed a foul.
2
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gaizka Larrazabal from Casa Pia takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after a deflection off Felix Bacher.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Estoril exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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