Tondela vs Rio Ave Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio João Cardoso Tue, 10 Mar - 12:11 AM
Liga Portugal
Tondela TND
0 Winner 1
Rio Ave RIO
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 12:11 AM
|
Goal
Jalen Blesa - 70'

CONTEXT

The match between Tondela and Rio Ave has officially finished, with the away side securing a 1-0 victory. After a tightly contested first half that remained even at 0-0, Rio Ave managed to break the deadlock in the second half. The match concluded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Tondela entered the fixture as the clear favorites, holding a 43.6% implied probability of winning based on the market. A draw was priced at 28.8%, while a Rio Ave victory was given just a 27.7% chance. Because of this upset, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market, resulting in a notable 72.3% deviation driven by the underdog away side. On the pitch, Rio Ave controlled a slight majority of the play, holding 53% possession compared to Tondela's 47%. While expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable to assess whether the outcome aligned with underlying chance creation, the efficiency shift was ultimately in line with the final score. Rio Ave posted a positive 0.43 efficiency rating, whereas Tondela's negative -0.43 rating reflected their inability to find the back of the net.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rio Ave showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Soares Vaz Freire
G. Soares Vaz Freire
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.53
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
H. Pires Ribeiro
H. Pires Ribeiro
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.53
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
F. Dinis Lima
F. Dinis Lima
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.53
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
H. Azevedo Malheiro
H. Azevedo Malheiro
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.53
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Tondela C. Bacci
C. Bacci
VS
Rio Ave S. Silaidopoulos
S. Silaidopoulos
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.86
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santa Clara Rank: D
Estrela Amadora Rank: W
Alverca Rank: D
Estoril Rank: D
Benfica Rank: D
Famalicão Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: D
Porto Rank: L
Moreirense Rank: L
Sporting Braga Rank: L
Arouca Rank: L
Nacional Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tondela
43.56%
Draw
28.76%
Away Rio Ave
27.69%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
28.66
32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tondela
Rio Ave
Power Score
28.66
32
League Position
17
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Rio Ave — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tondela Rio Ave

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tondela

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rio Ave

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tondela ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rio Ave
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.91
21.32
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.32
16.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tondela -0.44 Efficiency Index
vs
Rio Ave +0.44 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tondela
Rio Ave
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tondela ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rio Ave
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tondela Rio Ave
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tondela Rio Ave
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tondela
Rio Ave
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tondela TND Home
3 matches
Rio Ave RIO Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
2
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:12:11+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 10, 2026, 12:11 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio João Cardoso
Capacity
30127
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gonçalo Nuno Soares Vaz Freire
Hugo André Pires Ribeiro
Flávio Dinis Lima
Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro

Statistics

Possession
TND
47%
RIO
53%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 7
39 Dangerous attacks 46
47 Possession 53
3 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

19 Dribble Attempts 16
10 Successful Headers 15
27 Throwins 19
10 Successful Dribbles 10
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
7 Goal Kicks 4
2 Hit Woodwork 2
0 Penalties 1
1 Injuries 1
79 Ball Safe 72
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
6 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

80 Attacks 114
1 Counter Attacks 3
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

6 Key Passes 7
79 Successful Passes Percentage 85
321 Successful Passes 389
406 Passes 460
51 Long Passes 47
24 Successful Long Passes 22
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

9 Interceptions 15
23 Tackles 15
1 Saves 2

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 9
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

14 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
7th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
6th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Diogo Bezerra
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Gustavo Mancha
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Leonardo Buta → Nelson Abbey
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Francisco Petrasso → Jalen Blesa
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Nelson Abbey
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Tiago Manso → Makan Aïko
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Moudjatovic → Bebeto
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Hélder Tavares → Christian Marques
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Jordan → Joe Hodge
5th Substitution
74'
72'
Event
João Tomé → Ole Pohlmann
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Tamble Monteiro → Dario Spikic
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Jalen Blesa
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Yaya Sithole → Juanse
2nd Substitution
62'
60'
Event
Ryan → Andreas Ntoi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Diogo Bezerra
Woodwork
45'
Event
Ole Pohlmann
Penalty awarded
35'
Event
Marios Vrousai
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Andreas Ntoi
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gustavo Mancha from Rio Ave has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Tondela 0, Rio Ave 1.
90
Update Update
João Tomé from Rio Ave has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
João Silva from Tondela committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tondela after a defensive play by Gustavo Mancha.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Benjamin Kimpioka from Tondela commits a handball.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diogo Bezerra from Rio Ave has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Leonardo Buta from Rio Ave earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Pedro Maranhão from Tondela committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tondela after Diogo Bezerra allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Moudjatovic Ouattara from Tondela attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The chance was set up by Pedro Maranhão, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after João Silva gave it away.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Francisco Petrasso comes on to replace Jalen Blesa.
88
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nelson Abbey of Rio Ave has been shown a yellow card.
87
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Nelson Abbey from Rio Ave.
87
Update Update
Benjamin Kimpioka from Tondela commits a handball.
86
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Brayan Medina from Tondela attempted a header from the right side of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Pedro Maranhão.
84
Update Update
Gustavo Mancha from Rio Ave committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Jordan Siebatcheu from Tondela earned a free kick in an offensive position.
83
Update Update
Tamás Nikitscher from Rio Ave earned a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Update Update
Pedro Maranhão from Tondela committed a foul.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Tiago Manso replaces Makan Aiko.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Tiago Manso comes on to replace Makan Aiko.
76
Update Update
João Silva from Tondela earned a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Update Update
Tamble Monteiro from Rio Ave committed a foul.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Hélder Tavares replaces Christian Marques.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Jordan Siebatcheu is coming on to replace Joe Hodge.
74
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Tamble Monteiro from Rio Ave attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: João Tomé is coming off, and Olé Pohlmann is taking his place.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Tamble Monteiro comes on to replace Dario Spikic.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tondela 0, Rio Ave 1. Jalen Blesa of Rio Ave scores with a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, sending the ball into the top center of the net. The assist came from Dario Spikic, who delivered a perfectly timed through ball.
66
Update Update
Gustavo Mancha from Rio Ave was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Update Update
Gustavo Mancha from Rio Ave was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
65
Update Update
Dario Spikic from Rio Ave committed a foul.
65
Update Update
Makan Aiko from Tondela was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Benjamin Kimpioka of Tondela.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Sphephelo Sithole comes on to replace Juanse.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Ryan Guilherme comes on to replace Andreas Ntoi.
58
Update Update
Diogo Bezerra from Rio Ave earned a free kick in an offensive position.
58
Update Update
Brayan Medina from Tondela committed a foul.
57
Update Update
João Silva from Tondela committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Jalen Blesa of Rio Ave has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
55
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave.
54
Update Update
Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave has earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
54
Update Update
Tamás Nikitscher from Rio Ave committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Juanse from Tondela committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Bebeto from Tondela has been awarded a free kick in their defensive area.
53
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hodge from Tondela strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard area.
46
Update Update
Juanse from Tondela has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
46
Update Update
Tamás Nikitscher from Rio Ave committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Tondela 0, Rio Ave 0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Tondela 0, Rio Ave 0.
45
Update Update
Penalty opportunity squandered! The score remains Tondela 0, Rio Ave 0. Diogo Bezerra from Rio Ave strikes the crossbar with a right-footed attempt.
45
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Rio Ave.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
44
Update Update
João Silva from Tondela has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the box.
44
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Rio Ave! Olé Pohlmann is brought down inside the box.
43
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Diogo Bezerra of Rio Ave fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Marios Vrousai.
42
Update Update
Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Dario Spikic from Rio Ave committed a handball foul.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tondela, following a defensive play by Ennio van der Gouw.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tondela after Ennio van der Gouw allowed the ball to go out.
36
Update Update
Bebeto committed a foul on a Tondela player.
36
Update Update
Diogo Bezerra from Rio Ave has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marios Vrousai of Rio Ave has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
35
Update Update
Pedro Maranhão from Tondela earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
35
Update Update
Marios Vrousai from Rio Ave committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Marios Vrousai from Rio Ave earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
33
Update Update
Fouled by Benjamin Kimpioka of Tondela.
32
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Dario Spikic from Rio Ave takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but Bernardo Fontes from Tondela makes a save in the bottom left corner.
32
Update Update
Jalen Blesa from Rio Ave heads the ball and strikes the left post from the center of the penalty area. The assist came from Diogo Bezerra, who delivered a precise cross.
31
Update Update
Bebeto committed a foul against Tondela.
31
Update Update
Dario Spikic from Rio Ave has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Brayan Medina from Tondela heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but Ennio van der Gouw from Rio Ave makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Joe Hodge, who delivered a cross.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andreas Ntoi from Rio Ave has been shown a yellow card.
29
Update Update
Makan Aiko from Tondela earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
29
Update Update
Marios Vrousai from Rio Ave committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Diogo Bezerra from Rio Ave committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Bebeto from Tondela earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
26
Update Update
Rodrigo Conceição from Tondela earned a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Diogo Bezerra from Rio Ave committed a foul.
25
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Andreas Ntoi from Rio Ave attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Jalen Blesa.
23
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. João Silva from Tondela attempted a header from close range but failed to convert.
22
Update Update
Marios Vrousai from Rio Ave committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Makan Aiko from Tondela has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
21
Update Update
Offside call against Rio Ave. Olé Pohlmann has been caught offside.
19
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Dario Spikic of Rio Ave attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Olé Pohlmann.
16
Update Update
Foul for a handball committed by Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave.
14
Update Update
Juanse from Tondela has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Update Update
Andreas Ntoi from Rio Ave committed a foul.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a foul by Christian Marques.
11
Update Update
Tamás Nikitscher from Rio Ave was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
Rodrigo Conceição from Tondela committed a foul.
8
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. Nelson Abbey from Rio Ave attempted a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Dario Spikic.
6
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play now.
5
Update Update
Makan Aiko from Tondela has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
Jakub Brabec from Rio Ave committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Makan Aiko from Tondela.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rio Ave exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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