Galatasaray vs İstanbul Başakşehir Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Rams Global Stadium Sat, 14 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Galatasaray GAL
3 Winner 0
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 5:00 PM
Wilfried Singo - 57'
Victor Osimhen - 66'
Renato Nhaga - 84'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Festy Ebosele 56'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Galatasaray 3–0 İstanbul Başakşehir. The result saw Galatasaray take the points. Galatasaray showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 67%–33%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Galatasaray showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
?. Uyarcan
?. Uyarcan
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
R. Coşkunses
R. Coşkunses
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
B. Kolak
B. Kolak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
K. Ersoy
K. Ersoy
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Galatasaray O. Buruk
O. Buruk
VS
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
2.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.82
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eyüpspor Rank: 65 W
Rizespor Rank: 67 W
Kayserispor Rank: 64 W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 60 W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 67 D
Kasımpaşa Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Göztepe Rank: 73 W
Konyaspor Rank: 67 W
Alanyaspor Rank: 70 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 76 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 65 W
Rizespor Rank: 67 D
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 8 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Galatasaray
61.89%
Draw
19.86%
Away İstanbul Başakşehir
18.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
89.33
74.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Galatasaray
İstanbul Başakşehir
Power Score
89.33
74.46
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
16
103

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Galatasaray — Opponent-weighted form score
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Galatasaray İstanbul Başakşehir

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Galatasaray

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Galatasaray ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy İstanbul Başakşehir
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.16
24.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.09
32.16
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Galatasaray +0.88 Efficiency Index
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir -0.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Galatasaray
İstanbul Başakşehir
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Galatasaray
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Galatasaray İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Galatasaray İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Galatasaray
İstanbul Başakşehir
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Galatasaray GAL Home
11 matches
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Away
Match Record
9
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
9
Goals
24
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
24
+20
Goal Difference
-20
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:24:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
U. Çakır
Turkey
1 U. Çakır
R. Sallai
Substitution
Hungary
7 R. Sallai
D. Sánchez Mina
Colombia
6 D. Sánchez Mina
W. Singo
Substitution
Ivory Coast
90 W. Singo
E. Elmalı
Turkey
17 E. Elmalı
L. Torreira Di Pascua
Substitution
Uruguay
34 L. Torreira Di Pascua
G. Gomes Sara
Brazil
8 G. Gomes Sara
B. Yılmaz
Substitution
Turkey
53 B. Yılmaz
Y. Akgün
Turkey
11 (C) Y. Akgün
N. Lang
Netherlands
77 N. Lang
V. Osimhen
Substitution
Nigeria
45 V. Osimhen
M. Şengezer
Turkey
16 M. Şengezer
F. Ebosele
Republic of Ireland
36 F. Ebosele
J. Opoku
Ghana
3 J. Opoku
L. Duarte da Silva
Brazil
5 L. Duarte da Silva
Ö. Şahiner
Turkey
42 (C) Ö. Şahiner
U. Güneş
Substitution
Turkey
20 U. Güneş
O. Kemen
Cameroon
8 O. Kemen
I. Brnić
Substitution
Croatia
77 I. Brnić
E. Shomurodov
Substitution
Uzbekistan
14 E. Shomurodov
Y. Sari
Substitution
Turkey
7 Y. Sari
D. Selke
Substitution
Germany
9 D. Selke

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Rams Global Stadium
Capacity
53978
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
İbrahim Çağlar Uyarcan
Reşat Onur Coşkunses
Batuhan Kolak
Kerem Ersoy

Statistics

Possession
GAL
64%
IBA
36%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 2
51 Dangerous attacks 19
67 Possession 33
9 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 0
107 Ball Safe 79
1 Injuries 0
14 Goal Attempts 5
3 Assists 0
17 Throwins 8
20 Dribble Attempts 8
6 Goal Kicks 13
10 Successful Headers 11
5 Substitutions 5
7 Successful Dribbles 3
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

Attacking

76 Attacks 66
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

508 Passes 256
73 Long Passes 61
445 Successful Passes 175
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
17 Key Passes 4
88 Successful Passes Percentage 68
40 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

6 Interceptions 8
12 Tackles 18
3 Saves 3

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 2
27 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
5 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Batuhan Kolak

Starting XI ▼

1
Uğurcan Çakır
Uğurcan Çakır Goalkeeper
7.6
6
Davinson Sánchez
Davinson Sánchez Defender
7.49
7
Roland Sallai
Roland Sallai Defender
6.55
74
Renato Nhaga
Renato Nhaga
Midfielder82'
7.25
17
Eren Elmalı
Eren Elmalı Defender
7.15
90
Wilfried Singo
Wilfried Singo Defender
8.54
23
Kaan Ayhan
Kaan Ayhan
Defender79'
6.48
8
Gabriel Sara
Gabriel Sara Midfielder
6.7
11
Yunus Akgün
Yunus Akgün (C) Midfielder
8.05
34
Lucas Torreira
Lucas Torreira Midfielder
6.8
93
Sacha Boey
Sacha Boey
Defender74'
6.45
53
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Barış Alper Yılmaz Midfielder
6.86
20
İlkay Gündoğan
İlkay Gündoğan
Midfielder74'
6.63
77
Noa Lang
Noa Lang Midfielder
8.16
45
Victor Osimhen
Victor Osimhen Attacker
7.6
9
Mauro Icardi
Mauro Icardi
Attacker75'
6.32
Referee : Batuhan Kolak

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
6.27
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Defender
6.22
5
Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte Defender
6.26
36
Festy Ebosele
Festy Ebosele Defender
6.53
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner (C) Defender
6.19
7
Yusuf Sarı
Yusuf Sarı Midfielder
6.78
6
Onur Bulut
Onur Bulut
Defender58'
6.34
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Midfielder
6.49
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Midfielder
6.24
13
Miguel Crespo
Miguel Crespo
Midfielder70'
6.38
20
Umut Güneş
Umut Güneş Midfielder
6.47
4
Onur Ergün
Onur Ergün
Midfielder79'
6.5
77
Ivan Brnic
Ivan Brnic Midfielder
6.54
27
Ousseynou Ba
Ousseynou Ba
Defender58'
6.37
9
Davie Selke
Davie Selke Attacker
6.47
91
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Attacker70'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Renato Nhaga
Goal awarded
86'
Event
Renato Nhaga
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
Event
Renato Nhaga → Roland Sallai
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Kaan Ayhan → Wilfried Singo
8th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Onur Ergün → Umut Güneş
9th Substitution
Event
Mauro Icardi → Victor Osimhen
7th Substitution
75'
Event
İlkay Gündoğan → Barış Alper Yılmaz
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Sacha Boey → Lucas Torreira
5th Substitution
74'
70'
Event
Bertuğ Yıldırım → Davie Selke
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Miguel Crespo → Eldor Shomurodov
3rd Substitution
Event
Victor Osimhen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
66'
58'
Event
Ousseynou Ba → Ivan Brnic
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Onur Bulut → Yusuf Sarı
2nd Substitution
Event
Wilfried Singo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
57'
56'
Event
Festy Ebosele
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Festy Ebosele
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Galatasaray exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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