Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu Mon, 9 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Alanyaspor ANY
0 – 0
Gençlerbirliği GSK
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 5:00 PM

CONTEXT

The match between Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği has finished, resulting in a 0-0 draw. Both sides were deadlocked at half-time and failed to break the stalemate in the second period. This scoreless draw represented a significant deviation from expectations for Alanyaspor, who entered the fixture as the stronger team. Pre-match market probabilities gave the hosts a 46.9% chance of claiming victory, with a draw rated at 28.4% and an away win at just 24.7%. Because of this strong favoritism, the final outcome ultimately did not align with the pre-match market expectations. On the pitch, Alanyaspor controlled the tempo, maintaining 59% possession while Gençlerbirliği managed 41%. Expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this contest, making it impossible to determine if the 0-0 scoreline was consistent with the actual quality of chances created by either side. Despite the lack of goals, the overall efficiency shift was evaluated to be in line with typical match dynamics. Finally, the fixture saw no red cards issued to either side, ensuring that disciplinary dismissals did not artificially impact the flow or final result of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Alanyaspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
H. Ülker
H. Ülker
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
E. Sancaktar
E. Sancaktar
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
R. Coşkunses
R. Coşkunses
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Bulut
M. Bulut
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Alanyaspor N. Pereira Costa
N. Pereira Costa
VS
Gençlerbirliği V. Demirel
V. Demirel
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: D
Eyüpspor Rank: L
Rizespor Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kayserispor Rank: D
Eyüpspor Rank: L
Rizespor Rank: D
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: W
Antalyaspor Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alanyaspor
46.89%
Draw
28.42%
Away Gençlerbirliği
24.69%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
36
34.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alanyaspor
Gençlerbirliği
Power Score
36
34.92
League Position
11
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alanyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Gençlerbirliği — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alanyaspor Gençlerbirliği

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Alanyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gençlerbirliği

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gençlerbirliği
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.80
10.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
10.24
37.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Alanyaspor +2.91 Efficiency Index
vs
Gençlerbirliği -2.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Alanyaspor
Gençlerbirliği
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gençlerbirliği
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Alanyaspor Gençlerbirliği
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Alanyaspor Gençlerbirliği
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Alanyaspor
Gençlerbirliği
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alanyaspor ANY Home
3 matches
Gençlerbirliği GSK Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
4
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:06:04+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
Capacity
10128
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Hakan Ülker
Esat Sancaktar
Reşat Onur Coşkunses
Mert Bulut

Statistics

Possession
ANY
59%
GSK
41%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 0
14 Shots 1
86 Dangerous attacks 24
59 Possession 41
9 Corners 2
5 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 2
25 Throwins 19
1 Hit Woodwork 0
15 Dribble Attempts 7
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
4 Goal Kicks 9
11 Successful Headers 12
5 Substitutions 5
94 Ball Safe 119
0 Injuries 3
9 Goal Attempts 1

Attacking

143 Attacks 63
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

24 Successful Long Passes 26
553 Passes 406
89 Successful Passes Percentage 81
13 Key Passes 1
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
42 Long Passes 60
494 Successful Passes 329

Defensive

11 Tackles 15
8 Interceptions 5
0 Saves 7

Build-up

13 Accurate Crosses 2
42 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

12 Fouls 5
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Henry Onyekuru → Göktan Gürpüz
10th Substitution
Event
İzzet Çelik → Gaius Makouta
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Efecan Karaca → Ui-jo Hwang
9th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Matej Hanousek → Adama Traoré
6th Substitution
84'
Event
M'Baye Niang → Sékou Koïta
7th Substitution
Event
Güven Yalçın → Steve Mounié
5th Substitution
74'
69'
Event
Samed Onur → Dal Varesanovic
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Cihan Çanak → Metehan Mimaroğlu
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Pedro Pereira
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Ianis Hagi → Meschack Elia
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Ruan → Enes Keskin
1st Substitution
60'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Sékou Koïta
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Steve Mounié
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Alanyaspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews