Rizespor vs Antalyaspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu Sun, 8 Mar - 10:30 AM
Super Lig
Rizespor Rizespor
1 Winner 0
Antalyaspor ANT
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 10:30 AM
Qazim Laci - 10' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Rizespor securing a 1-0 full-time victory over Antalyaspor. The home side found their breakthrough in the first half to take a 1-0 lead into the break, and they successfully defended that advantage until the final whistle. This outcome was fully aligned with the pre-match market, which heavily favored Rizespor with a 60.6% probability of winning, compared to a 23.4% chance for a draw and only 16.1% for an Antalyaspor upset. Despite suffering the defeat, Antalyaspor controlled the tempo for long stretches, finishing the game with 56% possession compared to Rizespor's 44%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it is impossible to determine whether the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying offensive metrics. Furthermore, the match was a disciplined affair with no red cards issued, allowing both teams to execute their tactics with all eleven men. Although the pre-match favorite ultimately won, the data indicated a significant deviation for Rizespor relative to baseline market expectations. Nevertheless, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with the outcome, confirming that the stronger team effectively managed the game to claim all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rizespor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Aksu
O. Aksu
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
E. Mertoğlu
E. Mertoğlu
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
?. Uyarcan
?. Uyarcan
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
G. Baltacı
G. Baltacı
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Rizespor R. Uçar
R. Uçar
VS
Antalyaspor S. Uğurlu
S. Uğurlu
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: W
Kocaelispor Rank: W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: D
Alanyaspor Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: L
Samsunspor Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rizespor
60.55%
Draw
23.39%
Away Antalyaspor
16.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
40
32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rizespor
Antalyaspor
Power Score
40
32
League Position
8
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rizespor — Opponent-weighted form score
Antalyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rizespor Antalyaspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rizespor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Antalyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rizespor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Antalyaspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.84
21.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.70
32.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rizespor +1.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Antalyaspor -1.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rizespor
Antalyaspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rizespor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Antalyaspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rizespor Antalyaspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rizespor Antalyaspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rizespor
Antalyaspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rizespor Rizespor Home
9 matches
Antalyaspor ANT Away
Match Record
6
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
20
+8
Goal Difference
-8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:01:53+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 10:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu
Capacity
15558
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oğuzhan Aksu
E. Mertoğlu
İbrahim Çağlar Uyarcan
Gökmen Baltacı

Statistics

Possession
Rizespor
47%
ANT
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 4
29 Dangerous attacks 43
44 Possession 56
2 Corners 1
16 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 6
22 Throwins 24
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
1 Penalties 0
27 Dribble Attempts 21
15 Successful Dribbles 7
12 Successful Headers 12
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 3
70 Ball Safe 77
2 Injuries 4
12 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
102 Attacks 118

Possession

7 Key Passes 6
240 Successful Passes 318
74 Successful Passes Percentage 78
51 Long Passes 58
21 Successful Long Passes 26
323 Passes 406
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

19 Tackles 26
14 Interceptions 10
4 Saves 6

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 17
1 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 4

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Giannis Papanikolaou
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
85'
Event
Yohan Boli → Bünyamin Balcı
8th Substitution
Event
Giannis Papanikolaou → Qazim Laci
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Altin Zeqiri → Valentin Mihăilă
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Frantzdy Pierrot → Ali Sowe
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Loide Augusto → Adedire Mebude
4th Substitution
76'
Event
T. Antalyalı
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Qazim Laci
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
68'
Event
Samet Karakoç → Doğukan Sinik
3rd Substitution
Event
Taha Şahin → Casper Højer
2nd Substitution
62'
57'
Event
Dario Saric → Nikola Storm
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Samuel Ballet
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Qazim Laci
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
10'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rizespor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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