Gaziantep F.K. vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Gaziantep Stadyumu
Sun, 8 Mar - 10:30 AM
Super Lig
Gaziantep F.K.
Gaziantep F.K.
1
–
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
Full Time
Sun, 8 Mar
10:30 AM
Alexandru Maxim - 54'
|
Serginho - 63'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 17
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Gaziantep F.K. 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük. The match ended in a draw. Gaziantep F.K. showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Gaziantep F.K. showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Y. Kendirciler
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
O. Bilir
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
?. Güldibi
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
M. Curbay
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
B. Yılmaz
VS
A. Stanojević
1.15
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.48
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Samsunspor
Rank:
D
Trabzonspor
Rank:
L
Kocaelispor
Rank:
L
Kasımpaşa
Rank:
W
Gençlerbirliği
Rank:
L
Konyaspor
Rank:
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Trabzonspor
Rank:
L
Samsunspor
Rank:
D
Kasımpaşa
Rank:
L
Antalyaspor
Rank:
W
Göztepe
Rank:
L
Galatasaray
Rank:
L
4
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 2 - 3
3
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Gaziantep F.K.
45.2%
Draw
26.77%
Fatih Karagümrük
28.03%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
40
24.66
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gaziantep F.K.
Fatih Karagümrük
Power Score
40
24.66
League Position
10
18
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Gaziantep F.K.
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Fatih Karagümrük
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Gaziantep F.K. Fatih Karagümrük
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Gaziantep F.K.
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Fatih Karagümrük
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Gaziantep F.K.
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Fatih Karagümrük
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.06
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Gaziantep F.K.
+0.09
Efficiency Index
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
-0.09
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gaziantep F.K.
Fatih Karagümrük
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Gaziantep F.K.
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Fatih Karagümrük
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Gaziantep F.K.
Fatih Karagümrük
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Gaziantep F.K.
Fatih Karagümrük
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gaziantep F.K.
Fatih Karagümrük
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Gaziantep F.K.
Gaziantep F.K.
Home
9
matches
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
18
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:02:22+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 10:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Gaziantep Stadyumu
Capacity
33502
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Yusuf Adnan Kendirciler
Osman Gökhan Bilir
?. Güldibi
Murat Tuğberk Curbay
Statistics
Possession
Gaziantep F.K.
48%
Fatih Karagümrük
52%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
1
1
Big Chances Created
1
14
Shots
14
26
Dangerous attacks
43
48
Possession
52
6
Corners
12
15
Free kicks
14
3
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
24
Throwins
22
6
Goal Kicks
13
0
Hit Woodwork
1
13
Successful Headers
13
54
Successful Dribbles Percentage
58
24
Dribble Attempts
12
13
Successful Dribbles
7
6
Substitutions
6
1
Assists
1
46
Ball Safe
46
2
Injuries
1
7
Goal Attempts
12
Attacking
89
Attacks
93
1
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
322
Successful Passes
342
23
Successful Long Passes
33
56
Long Passes
57
41
Successful Long Passes Percentage
58
9
Key Passes
11
83
Successful Passes Percentage
82
390
Passes
416
Defensive
5
Saves
6
5
Interceptions
7
10
Tackles
15
Build-up
13
Total Crosses
20
6
Accurate Crosses
1
Discipline
3
Offsides
3
10
Fouls
14
Events
2ND-HALF
Yusuf Kabadayi
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
80'
Abdul Kader Moussa Kone → Barış Kalaycı
10th Substitution
Yusuf Kabadayi → Karamba Gassama
8th Substitution
72'
N. Sangaré → Luis Pérez
9th Substitution
72'
Tayyip Talha Sanuç
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
69'
Christopher Lungoyi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
63'
Serginho
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado → Drissa Camara
6th Substitution
59'
59'
Tiago Çukur → Daniele Verde
5th Substitution
59'
Shavy Babicka → Matías Kranevitter
4th Substitution
59'
Serginho → Sam Larsson
7th Substitution
Alexandru Maxim
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
54'
Deian Sorescu → Melih Kabasakal
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Fatih Kurucuk → Davide Biraschi
2nd Substitution
33'
Filip Mladenovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Myenty Abena → Kévin Rodrigues
1st Substitution
20'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Gaziantep F.K. exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.