Real Zaragoza vs Almería Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de la Romareda Sat, 14 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga 2
Real Zaragoza ZAR
2 Winner 0
Almería ALM
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 5:30 PM
Rober González - 80'
Dani Gómez - 90+6'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Real Zaragoza 2–0 Almería. The result saw Real Zaragoza take the points. Real Zaragoza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 38%–62%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Zaragoza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Palencia Caballero
D. Palencia Caballero
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
J. Méndez Mateo
J. Méndez Mateo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
M. Ortuño Sierra
M. Ortuño Sierra
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
F. Sáiz Villares
F. Sáiz Villares
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Real Zaragoza R. Sellés Salvador
R. Sellés Salvador
VS
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
0.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.91
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Andorra Rank: 58 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 60 D
SD Eibar Rank: 66 D
Albacete Rank: 65 L
Castellón Rank: 69 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 61 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Albacete Rank: 64 D
Córdoba Rank: 67 W
FC Andorra Rank: 58 W
Cádiz Rank: 64 W
Ceuta Rank: 61 W
SD Eibar Rank: 66 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 4 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Zaragoza
30.53%
Draw
28.01%
Away Almería
41.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.82
68.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Zaragoza
Almería
Power Score
58.82
68.72
League Position
20
2
Global Rank
496
199

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Zaragoza Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.26
21.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.13
30.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Zaragoza +0.91 Efficiency Index
vs
Almería -0.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Almería
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Zaragoza Almería
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Zaragoza Almería
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Almería
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Zaragoza ZAR Home
7 matches
Almería ALM Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
0
Draws
0
5
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
8
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:34:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Andrada
Argentina
1 E. Andrada
M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
Spain
20 M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
P. Ínsua Blanco
Spain
4 P. Ínsua Blanco
A. Radovanović
Serbia
16 A. Radovanović
J. Larios López
Spain
27 J. Larios López
F. Gracia
Spain
14 (C) F. Gracia
K. Bare
Substitution
Albania
6 K. Bare
R. González Bayón
Substitution
Spain
11 R. González Bayón
K. Kodro
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19 K. Kodro
H. Pinilla Ruiz
Substitution
31 H. Pinilla Ruiz
D. Gómez Alcón
Spain
9 D. Gómez Alcón
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
A. Muñoz Miguel
Substitution
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
N. Macedo Monte
Portugal
4 N. Macedo Monte
D. Chirino
Substitution
Curaçao
22 D. Chirino
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
I. Mohammed
Ghana
14 I. Mohammed
J. Morcillo Conesa
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Morcillo Conesa
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
L. Carrilho Baptistão
Substitution
Brazil
12 (C) L. Carrilho Baptistão
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Stadium
Estadio de la Romareda
Capacity
33608
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniel Palencia Caballero
Joan Méndez Mateo
Miguel Ortuño Sierra
F. Sáiz Villares

Statistics

Possession
ZAR
41%
ALM
59%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 5
30 Dangerous attacks 42
38 Possession 62
5 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 11
5 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

71 Ball Safe 93
9 Goal Kicks 4
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
8 Dribble Attempts 16
7 Goal Attempts 7
6 Successful Dribbles 7
4 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 20
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Assists 0

Attacking

79 Attacks 91
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

306 Passes 505
9 Key Passes 8
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
15 Successful Long Passes 31
227 Successful Passes 440
48 Long Passes 54
74 Successful Passes Percentage 87

Defensive

14 Tackles 9
15 Interceptions 6
1 Saves 2

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 13
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

9 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Palencia Caballero

Starting XI ▼

1
Esteban Andrada
Esteban Andrada Goalkeeper
7.07
4
Pablo Insua
Pablo Insua Defender
7.04
16
Aleksandar Radovanovic
Aleksandar Radovanovic Defender
6.83
20
Martín Aguirregabiria
Martín Aguirregabiria Defender
6.63
27
Juan Larios
Juan Larios Defender
6.76
6
Keidi Bare
Keidi Bare Midfielder
6.61
26
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Midfielder66'
6.67
11
Rober González
Rober González Midfielder
7.82
33
Yussif Saidu
Yussif Saidu
Midfielder88'
14
Francho Serrano
Francho Serrano (C) Midfielder
6.59
19
Kenan Kodro
Kenan Kodro Midfielder
6.58
23
Marcos Cuenca
Marcos Cuenca
Attacker67'
7
31
Hugo Pinilla
Hugo Pinilla Midfielder
7
3
Dani Tasende
Dani Tasende
Defender73'
6.87
9
Dani Gómez
Dani Gómez Attacker
7.4
Referee : Daniel Palencia Caballero

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
6.89
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
6.49
20
Álex Centelles
Álex Centelles
Defender58'
6.27
4
Nélson Monte
Nélson Monte Defender
6.32
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
6.56
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino Defender
6.88
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna
Defender78'
6.03
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo Midfielder
6.53
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder70'
6.04
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
7.5
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder78'
6.34
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão (C) Midfielder
6.46
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba
Attacker58'
6.52
14
Iddrisu Baba
Iddrisu Baba Midfielder
6.62
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
6.83
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
6.92

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dani Gómez
9th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Dani Gómez
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+6'
Event
10th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Yussif Saidu → Rober González
9th Substitution
88'
86'
Event
Arnau Puigmal
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Rober González
Goal awarded
83'
Event
Rober González
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
80'
78'
Event
Nico Melamed → Sergio Arribas
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Marcos Luna → Daijiro Chirino
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Adrián Embarba
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Dani Tasende → Hugo Pinilla
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Juan Larios
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Pablo Insua
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
72'
70'
Event
Arnau Puigmal → Jon Morcillo
5th Substitution
Event
Marcos Cuenca → Kenan Kodro
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze → Keidi Bare
3rd Substitution
66'
58'
Event
Álex Centelles → Álex Muñoz
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Adrián Embarba → Léo Baptistão
2nd Substitution
Event
Keidi Bare
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
53'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Léo Baptistão
Penalty disallowed
28'
Event
Álex Muñoz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
4'
Event
Daijiro Chirino
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Real Zaragoza exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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