Málaga vs Huesca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio La Rosaleda Sun, 15 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga 2
Málaga MLA
5 Winner 3
Huesca HUE
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 5:30 PM
David Larrubia - 38'
Adrián Niño - 45+2' (P)
Joaquín Muñoz - 55'
Chupe - 90+3', 90+9'
Goal
|
Goal
Óscar Sielva - 30' (P)
Jorge Pulido - 88'
Álvaro Carrillo - 90+5'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Málaga 5–3 Huesca. The result saw Málaga take the points. Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 59%–41%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Valencia López
B. Valencia López
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.93
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
D. Novoa Hernández
D. Novoa Hernández
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.93
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
G. Etayo Herrera
G. Etayo Herrera
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.93
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
D. Cambronero González
D. Cambronero González
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.93
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
VS
Huesca J. Pérez Alonso
J. Pérez Alonso
1.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.91
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: 65 W
Albacete Rank: 65 W
Real Sociedad II Rank: 61 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 60 W
Mirandés Rank: 59 L
Burgos Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés Rank: 59 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 L
Cádiz Rank: 64 W
FC Andorra Rank: 58 D
Burgos Rank: 65 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Málaga
56.63%
Draw
26.14%
Away Huesca
17.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.87
59.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Málaga
Huesca
Power Score
66.87
59.34
League Position
4
19
Global Rank
253
478

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Huesca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Huesca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Huesca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Huesca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.29
40.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.73
32.29
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Málaga -0.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Huesca +0.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Huesca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Huesca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Málaga Huesca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Málaga Huesca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Huesca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home
7 matches
Huesca HUE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
1
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:52:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 (C) A. Herrero Peinador
C. Puga Medina
Substitution
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
F. Montero Rubio
Spain
20 F. Montero Rubio
R. Garrido Hierro
Substitution
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
D. Larrubia Romano
Spain
10 D. Larrubia Romano
D. Lorenzo Guerrero
Spain
22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
I. Merino Rodríguez
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
J. Muñoz Benavides
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
C. Dotor Gonzalez
Substitution
Spain
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
A. Niño Heredia
Substitution
Spain
21 A. Niño Heredia
D. Jiménez López
Spain
13 D. Jiménez López
J. Alonso Sosa
Spain
17 J. Alonso Sosa
J. Pulido Mayoral
Spain
14 (C) J. Pulido Mayoral
I. Sebastián Magaña
Spain
5 I. Sebastián Magaña
A. Carrillo Alacid
Spain
4 A. Carrillo Alacid
M. Agbekpornu
Substitution
Ghana
22 M. Agbekpornu
Ó. Sielva Moreno
Spain
23 Ó. Sielva Moreno
A. Cantero Sánchez
Substitution
Spain
15 A. Cantero Sánchez
F. Portillo Soler
Substitution
Spain
20 F. Portillo Soler
I. Laquintana Marsico
Substitution
Uruguay
19 I. Laquintana Marsico
J. Escobar Fernández
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Escobar Fernández

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Stadium
Estadio La Rosaleda
Capacity
30044
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Brian Valencia López
Daniel Novoa Hernández
Gorka Etayo Herrera
David Cambronero González

Statistics

Possession
MLA
56%
HUE
44%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 4
16 Shots 15
61 Dangerous attacks 34
59 Possession 41
2 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Successful Dribbles 4
20 Dribble Attempts 8
9 Goal Kicks 10
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
18 Throwins 19
1 Penalties 1
2 Assists 1
81 Ball Safe 75
18 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

88 Attacks 92
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

378 Successful Passes 217
48 Long Passes 80
17 Successful Long Passes 36
84 Successful Passes Percentage 70
449 Passes 312
11 Key Passes 9
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

8 Tackles 15
2 Saves 5
11 Interceptions 10

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 13
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Gorka Etayo Herrera

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero (C) Goalkeeper
6.13
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
6.37
2
Jokin Gabilondo
Jokin Gabilondo
Defender86'
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
5.87
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Defender
6.21
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
6.38
18
Dani Sánchez
Dani Sánchez
Defender74'
6.09
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
8.61
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
8.31
25
Josué Dorrio
Josué Dorrio
Attacker74'
6.41
22
Dani Lorenzo
Dani Lorenzo Midfielder
6.84
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
6.62
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Attacker
6.82
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez
Midfielder86'
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño Attacker
7.49
9
Chupe
Chupe
Attacker69'
2
8.88
Referee : Gorka Etayo Herrera

Starting XI ▼

13
Dani Jiménez
Dani Jiménez Goalkeeper
6.44
4
Álvaro Carrillo
Álvaro Carrillo Defender
6.81
5
Piña
Piña Defender
6.58
14
Jorge Pulido
Jorge Pulido (C) Defender
6.57
17
Julio Alonso
Julio Alonso Defender
5.68
15
Álex Cantero
Álex Cantero Midfielder
6.29
21
Dani Ojeda
Dani Ojeda
Attacker66'
6.58
19
Ignacio Laquintana
Ignacio Laquintana Midfielder
6.84
24
Efe Ugiagbe
Efe Ugiagbe
Attacker75'
6.31
20
Francisco Portillo
Francisco Portillo Midfielder
6.46
8
Jordi Martín
Jordi Martín
Defender66'
6.08
22
Michael Agbekpornu
Michael Agbekpornu Midfielder
5.99
10
Jaime Seoane
Jaime Seoane
Midfielder53'
6.28
23
Óscar Sielva
Óscar Sielva Midfielder
7.93
7
Jordi Escobar
Jordi Escobar Attacker
6.36
9
Sergi Enrich
Sergi Enrich
Attacker75'
6.92

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Chupe
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
90+9'
90+5'
Event
Álvaro Carrillo
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Chupe
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Jorge Pulido
Goal awarded
88'
Event
Jorge Pulido
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Rafa Rodríguez → Carlos Dotor
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Jokin Gabilondo → Carlos Puga
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Carlos Puga
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
82'
Event
5th Yellowcard
82'
75'
Event
Efe Ugiagbe → Ignacio Laquintana
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Sergi Enrich → Jordi Escobar
7th Substitution
Event
Dani Sánchez → Rafita Garrido
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Josué Dorrio → Joaquín Muñoz
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Chupe → Adrián Niño
4th Substitution
69'
66'
Event
Dani Ojeda → Álex Cantero
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Jordi Martín → Francisco Portillo
2nd Substitution
Event
Joaquín Muñoz
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
55'
53'
Event
Jaime Seoane → Michael Agbekpornu
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Joaquín Muñoz
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+7'
Event
Adrián Niño
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
45+2'
45+1'
Event
Michael Agbekpornu
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Adrián Niño
Penalty awarded
45'
Event
David Larrubia
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
38'
30'
Event
Óscar Sielva
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Diego Murillo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Málaga exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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