Málaga vs Real Valladolid Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio La Rosaleda
Sun, 8 Mar - 12:15 AM
La Liga 2
Málaga
MLA
3
–
3
Real Valladolid
REV
Full Time
Sun, 8 Mar
12:15 AM
Chupe - 11' (P), 48'
Carlos Dotor - 14'
|
Peter Federico - 45+6'
Chupe - 65' (Own Goal)
Juanmi Latasa - 90+2'
Víctor García 56'
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Málaga 3–3 Real Valladolid. The match ended in a draw. Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 49%–51%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Morilla Turrión
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
7.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
A. Gutiérrez Martino
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
7.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
M. Herrera Ruiz
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
7.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
P. Oreiro Hermida
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
7.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
J. Funes Arjona
VS
F. Escriba Segura
1.57
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Albacete
Rank:
W
Real Sociedad II
Rank:
L
Cultural Leonesa
Rank:
W
Mirandés
Rank:
L
Burgos
Rank:
W
Córdoba
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huesca
Rank:
W
Sporting Gijón
Rank:
D
Granada
Rank:
L
Castellón
Rank:
L
Córdoba
Rank:
L
Albacete
Rank:
L
3
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 8 - 2
2
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Málaga
43.56%
Draw
28.53%
Real Valladolid
27.9%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.17
40.36
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Málaga
Real Valladolid
Power Score
55.17
40.36
League Position
5
17
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Málaga
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Real Valladolid
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Málaga Real Valladolid
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Málaga
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Real Valladolid
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Málaga
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Real Valladolid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.20
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Málaga
-1.63
Efficiency Index
vs
Real Valladolid
+1.63
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Real Valladolid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Málaga
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Real Valladolid
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Málaga
Real Valladolid
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Málaga
Real Valladolid
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Real Valladolid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Málaga
MLA
Home
3
matches
Real Valladolid
REV
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:15:39+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 12:15 AM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Stadium
Estadio La Rosaleda
Capacity
30044
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro Morilla Turrión
Alaiz Gutiérrez Martino
Manuel Herrera Ruiz
Pedro Oreiro Hermida
Statistics
Possession
MLA
49%
REV
51%
Top Statistics
3
Goals
3
4
Big Chances Created
3
3
Shots
5
34
Dangerous attacks
70
49
Possession
51
0
Corners
9
20
Free kicks
15
4
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
0
Match Overview
5
Substitutions
5
22
Throwins
24
14
Successful Dribbles
15
9
Goal Attempts
9
10
Goal Kicks
5
52
Successful Dribbles Percentage
56
74
Ball Safe
56
27
Dribble Attempts
27
1
Penalties
0
1
Assists
2
2
Injuries
1
Attacking
90
Attacks
104
1
Big Chances Missed
2
Possession
368
Passes
354
303
Successful Passes
299
6
Key Passes
14
55
Long Passes
38
40
Successful Long Passes Percentage
50
82
Successful Passes Percentage
84
22
Successful Long Passes
19
Defensive
18
Tackles
20
4
Interceptions
6
4
Saves
3
Build-up
7
Total Crosses
33
1
Accurate Crosses
9
Discipline
13
Fouls
13
1
Offsides
2
Events
2ND-HALF
David Larrubia
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+14'
90+13'
Pablo Tomeo
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+6'
Juanmi Latasa
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
Juanmi Latasa
Header / 4th Goal
Juanpe
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
Juanpe → Dani Lorenzo
10th Substitution
88'
Jokin Gabilondo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
84'
Stipe Biuk → Peter Federico
8th Substitution
84'
Vegard Erlien → Stanko Juric
9th Substitution
Rafa Rodríguez → Carlos Dotor
7th Substitution
73'
Adrián Niño → Chupe
6th Substitution
73'
66'
Ramón Martínez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
Chupe
Header / 1st Own Goal
64'
Víctor Meseguer → Julien Ponceau
5th Substitution
64'
Juanmi Latasa → Sergi Canós
4th Substitution
Jokin Gabilondo → Joaquín Muñoz
3rd Substitution
59'
Víctor García
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
56'
Chupe
Goal awarded
50'
Chupe
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
48'
Ángel Recio → Javi Montero
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+6'
Peter Federico
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
37'
Iván Garriel → Carlos Clerc
1st Substitution
Javi Montero
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'
Carlos Dotor
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'
Chupe
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
11'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Málaga exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.