Baltika Kaliningrad vs CSKA Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1 Sat, 14 Mar - 5:30 PM
Premier League
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
1 Winner 0
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 5:30 PM
B. Gil - 63'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Baltika Kaliningrad 1–0 CSKA Moskva. The result saw Baltika Kaliningrad take the points. Baltika Kaliningrad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 38%–62%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Baltika Kaliningrad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Ermakov
D. Ermakov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
A. Vereteshkin
A. Vereteshkin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
K. Levnikov
K. Levnikov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
M. Cheremnykh
M. Cheremnykh
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
Baltika Kaliningrad A. Talalaev
A. Talalaev
VS
CSKA Moskva F. Celestini
F. Celestini
1.62
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.62
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rostov Rank: 60 D
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 W
Orenburg Rank: 51 D
Krasnodar Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 69 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 57 L
Krasnodar Rank: 77 L
Orenburg Rank: 51 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Baltika Kaliningrad
0%
Draw
0%
Away CSKA Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.71
71.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Baltika Kaliningrad
CSKA Moskva
Power Score
55.71
71.63
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
281
150

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Baltika Kaliningrad CSKA Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

CSKA Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy CSKA Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.24
23.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.87
32.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Baltika Kaliningrad +0.95 Efficiency Index
vs
CSKA Moskva -0.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
CSKA Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy CSKA Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Baltika Kaliningrad CSKA Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad CSKA Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
CSKA Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Home
3 matches
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:31:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Borisko
Russia
67 M. Borisko
M. Beveev
Russia
23 M. Beveev
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
K. Andrade Murillo
Colombia
16 (C) K. Andrade Murillo
N. Gassama
France
4 N. Gassama
E. Ćivić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
77 E. Ćivić
M. Petrov
Russia
73 M. Petrov
N. Titkov
Substitution
Russia
22 N. Titkov
I. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
10 I. Petrov
T. Yenne
Substitution
Nigeria
15 T. Yenne
B. Gil Hurtado
El Salvador
91 B. Gil Hurtado
I. Akinfeev
Russia
35 (C) I. Akinfeev
M. Barbosa
Brazil
27 M. Barbosa
M. Reis de Lima
Substitution
Brazil
2 M. Reis de Lima
J. Da Silva Marcelino
Brazil
4 J. Da Silva Marcelino
M. Gajić
Serbia
22 M. Gajić
I. Oblyakov
Russia
10 I. Oblyakov
D. Barinov
Substitution
Russia
6 D. Barinov
K. Glebov
Substitution
Russia
17 K. Glebov
M. Kislyak
Russia
31 M. Kislyak
D. Krugovoi
Substitution
Russia
3 D. Krugovoi
T. Musaev
Substitution
Russia
11 T. Musaev

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1
Capacity
35212
Attendance
19860
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dmitri Ermakov
Andrey Vereteshkin
Kirill Levnikov
Mikhail Cheremnykh

Statistics

Possession
Baltika Kaliningrad
41%
CSKA Moskva
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 8
45 Dangerous attacks 56
38 Possession 62
5 Corners 6
10 Free kicks 24
5 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
4 Injuries 0
10 Goal Attempts 8
69 Ball Safe 95
3 Successful Dribbles 10
8 Goal Kicks 5
17 Throwins 32
31 Successful Headers 17
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
5 Dribble Attempts 14
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
87 Attacks 110

Possession

57 Successful Passes Percentage 78
26 Successful Long Passes 36
69 Long Passes 67
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
267 Passes 444
153 Successful Passes 347

Defensive

17 Tackles 11
17 Interceptions 17
4 Saves 5

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 24
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

23 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Kirill Levnikov

Starting XI ▼

67
Maksim Borisko
Maksim Borisko Goalkeeper
7.67
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Defender
7.09
4
Nathan Gassama
Nathan Gassama Defender
7.29
16
K. Andrade
K. Andrade (C) Defender
7.37
23
Mingiyan Beveev
Mingiyan Beveev Defender
6.38
77
E. Ćivić
E. Ćivić Defender
6.71
68
Mikhail Ryadno
Mikhail Ryadno
Defender61'
6.68
10
Ilya Petrov
Ilya Petrov Midfielder
6.5
8
Andrey Mendel
Andrey Mendel
Midfielder46'
6.87
15
T. Yenne
T. Yenne Midfielder
6.31
69
I. Manelov
I. Manelov
Attacker61'
6.53
22
Nikolai Titkov
Nikolai Titkov Midfielder
6.94
21
Eduardo Anderson
Eduardo Anderson
Defender76'
6.38
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Midfielder
7.22
91
B. Gil
B. Gil Attacker
7.27
Referee : Kirill Levnikov

Starting XI ▼

35
Igor Akinfeev
Igor Akinfeev (C) Goalkeeper
7.41
2
Matheus Reis
Matheus Reis Defender
6.97
79
Kirill Danilov
Kirill Danilov
Attacker75'
6.53
4
João Victor
João Victor Defender
7.11
22
Milan Gajić
Milan Gajić Defender
7.37
27
Moisés
Moisés Defender
7.1
3
Danil Krugovoy
Danil Krugovoy Midfielder
6.39
20
Matija Popović
Matija Popović
Midfielder69'
6.63
6
Dmitri Barinov
Dmitri Barinov Midfielder
6.85
37
Henrique Carmo
Henrique Carmo
Attacker69'
6.49
10
Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov Midfielder
7.56
17
Kirill Glebov
Kirill Glebov Midfielder
6.54
18
Danila Kozlov
Danila Kozlov
Midfielder69'
6.32
31
Matvey Kislyak
Matvey Kislyak Midfielder
6.81
11
Tamerlan Musaev
Tamerlan Musaev Attacker
6.49
97
Maksim Voronov
Maksim Voronov
Attacker65'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
B. Gil
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
90+14'
90+11'
Event
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Nikolai Titkov
9th Yellowcard
90+10'
Event
A. Talalaev
1st Yellow/red Card
90+9'
90+1'
Event
Henrique Carmo
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
89'
Event
João Victor
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Aleksandr Filin → Andrey Mendel
10th Substitution
80'
Event
Eduardo Anderson → Nikolai Titkov
9th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Kirill Danilov → Matheus Reis
8th Substitution
69'
Event
Henrique Carmo → Dmitri Barinov
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Danila Kozlov → Kirill Glebov
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Matija Popović → Danil Krugovoy
7th Substitution
65'
Event
Maksim Voronov → Tamerlan Musaev
4th Substitution
Event
B. Gil
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
63'
Event
I. Manelov → T. Yenne
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Mikhail Ryadno → E. Ćivić
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
51'
Event
T. Yenne
Red card cancelled
50'
Event
Andrey Mendel → Ilya Petrov
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
K. Andrade
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
34'
Event
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
34'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Baltika Kaliningrad exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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