Orenburg vs Zenit Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Gazovik
Sun, 8 Mar - 9:00 AM
Premier League
Orenburg
Orenburg
2
1
1
Zenit
ZSP
Full Time
Sun, 8 Mar
9:00 AM
Pedro - 62' (Own Goal)
E. Bolotov - 86'
|
Aleksandr Sobolev - 11'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
The match between Orenburg and Zenit has officially finished, with the home side securing a 2-1 full-time victory. Despite trailing 1-0 at halftime, Orenburg mounted a successful second-half comeback against Zenit, who were widely considered the stronger team heading into the fixture. This outcome resulted in a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, falling entirely in favor of Orenburg. Although the specific pre-match probability markets were listed at zero across the board, the final outcome was ultimately deemed aligned with the overarching market. On the pitch, Zenit largely controlled the game's tempo, holding 62 percent of the possession compared to Orenburg's 38 percent. Expected goals (xG) data was entirely unavailable for this contest, making it impossible to determine whether the final scoreline was consistent with the true quality of chances created by either side. However, the measured efficiency shift remained strictly in line with overall performance metrics. Furthermore, the match concluded without any severe disciplinary disruptions, as there were no red cards issued to either side to impact the overall flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Orenburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Safjan
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.25
D. Malikov
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.25
S. Tsyganok
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.25
I. Akhmetzyanov
VS
S. Semak
0.67
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
2.5
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron
Rank:
W
Akhmat Grozny
Rank:
L
CSKA Moskva
Rank:
L
Baltika Kaliningrad
Rank:
D
Lokomotiv Moskva
Rank:
L
Sochi
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad
Rank:
W
Akron
Rank:
W
Rubin Kazan
Rank:
W
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Rank:
W
Krylya Sovetov
Rank:
D
Lokomotiv Moskva
Rank:
W
1
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 11
11
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Orenburg
0%
Draw
0%
Zenit
0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
30
70
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Orenburg
Zenit
Power Score
30
70
League Position
13
2
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Orenburg
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Zenit
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Orenburg Zenit
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Orenburg
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Zenit
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Orenburg
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Zenit
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.73
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Orenburg
+1.31
Efficiency Index
vs
Zenit
-1.31
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Orenburg
Zenit
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Orenburg
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Zenit
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Orenburg
Zenit
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Orenburg
Zenit
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Orenburg
Zenit
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Orenburg
Orenburg
Home
7
matches
Zenit
ZSP
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
7
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:01:14+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 09:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Stadion Gazovik
Capacity
7520
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dmitri Safjan
Dmitri Malikov
Sergey Tsyganok
Statistics
Possession
Orenburg
41%
ZSP
59%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
1
0
Big Chances Created
5
5
Shots
8
41
Dangerous attacks
41
38
Possession
62
8
Corners
5
6
Free kicks
16
2
Yellow Cards
0
Match Overview
0
Penalties
2
9
Dribble Attempts
10
3
Successful Dribbles
3
11
Throwins
13
1
Assists
1
10
Goal Kicks
9
33
Successful Dribbles Percentage
30
13
Successful Headers
15
0
Hit Woodwork
1
48
Ball Safe
71
5
Substitutions
5
13
Goal Attempts
22
2
Injuries
0
Attacking
71
Attacks
69
0
Big Chances Missed
4
Possession
22
Successful Long Passes
36
76
Successful Passes Percentage
83
225
Successful Passes
424
47
Long Passes
65
297
Passes
509
47
Successful Long Passes Percentage
55
Defensive
3
Interceptions
9
14
Tackles
14
3
Saves
4
Build-up
25
Total Crosses
19
8
Accurate Crosses
10
Discipline
18
Fouls
6
1
Offsides
0
Events
2ND-HALF
90+6'
Andrey Mostovoy
Woodwork
Fahd Moufi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+4'
Philipp Hilmer → J. Thompson
9th Substitution
88'
A. Tataev → E. Gürlük
10th Substitution
88'
E. Bolotov
Header / 2nd Goal
86'
84'
Jhon Durán → Maksim Glushenkov
7th Substitution
84'
Aleksandr Erokhin → Gustavo Mantuan
8th Substitution
78'
Daniil Kondakov → Jhon Jhon
5th Substitution
78'
Andrey Mostovoy → Luiz Henrique
6th Substitution
E. Bolotov → Damián Puebla
3rd Substitution
76'
Ruslan Kul → Du Queiroz
4th Substitution
76'
G. Guzina
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
72'
G. Guzina → M. Savelyev
2nd Substitution
71'
Pedro
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
62'
62'
Wilmar Barrios → Wendel
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
11'
Aleksandr Sobolev
Header / 1st Goal
9'
Gustavo Mantuan
OffTarget
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Orenburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.