LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Cherkasy Arena
Sat, 14 Mar - 11:00 AM
Premier League
LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
2
0
0
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
Full Time
Sat, 14 Mar
11:00 AM
Ilya Putrya - 35' (P)
Mark Assinor - 90'
|
|
Bryan Castillo 90+4'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
The match between LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria has finished with a comfortable 2-0 victory for the home side. LNZ Cherkasy took a 1-0 lead into the halftime break before ultimately securing the full-time win. This outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the hosts with a 62.9% win probability, compared to a 25.4% chance of a draw and just 11.8% for the visitors. Despite Oleksandria controlling 59% of the possession against LNZ Cherkasy's 41%, the away side was unable to translate their time on the ball into a positive result. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the final scoreline aligned with the raw chance quality. However, the performance produced a significant statistical deviation favoring LNZ Cherkasy. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with pre-game projections. The match dynamics were heavily influenced by disciplinary issues, as Oleksandria was reduced to ten men after receiving a red card. This dismissal caused a noticeable red card distortion in the second-half adjustments, blunting the visitors' possession advantage and allowing the stronger LNZ Cherkasy side to confidently close out the match.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: LNZ Cherkasy showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Blavatskiy
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
12.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
V. Ostapchuk
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
12.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
M. Kozyryatskiy
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
12.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
V. Ponomarov
VS
K. Nesterenko
2.43
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.64
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Veres
Rank: 47
W
Polissya Zhytomyr
Rank: 59
L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Rank: 45
W
Zorya Luhansk
Rank: 52
W
Obolon'-Brovar
Rank: 42
W
Kudrivka
Rank: 42
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shakhtar Donetsk
Rank: 72
L
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Rank: 47
L
Obolon'-Brovar
Rank: 43
D
Kudrivka
Rank: 42
D
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Rank: 57
L
Rukh Vynnyky
Rank: 50
L
1
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 2
2
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
LNZ Cherkasy
62.87%
Draw
25.35%
Oleksandria
11.77%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.34
46.82
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
LNZ Cherkasy
Oleksandria
Power Score
56.34
46.82
League Position
2
15
Global Rank
566
833
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
LNZ Cherkasy
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Oleksandria
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
LNZ Cherkasy Oleksandria
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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LNZ Cherkasy
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Oleksandria
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
LNZ Cherkasy
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Oleksandria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.76
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
LNZ Cherkasy
+1.62
Efficiency Index
vs
Oleksandria
-1.62
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LNZ Cherkasy
Oleksandria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
LNZ Cherkasy
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Oleksandria
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
LNZ Cherkasy
Oleksandria
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
LNZ Cherkasy
Oleksandria
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
LNZ Cherkasy
Oleksandria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
Home
5
matches
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
4
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:41:27+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-4-2
Match Formation
5-3-2
12 O. Palamarchuk
G. Pasich
#1180'
33 I. Putria
25 O. Gorin
34 N. Muravskyi
14 A. Drambayev
17 D. Kuzyk
16 A. Ryabov
Y. Pastukh
#1929'
29 R. Didyk
A. Awudu
#1858'
7 A. Mykytyshyn
S. Nonikashvili
#580'
6 V. Tankovskiy
90 M. Assinor
72 N. Makarenko
23 M. Ogarkov
D. Shostak
#7145+3'
86 A. Bol
50 J. Behiratche
26 M. Ferreira Campos
D. Vashchenko
#2045+3'
91 B. Butko
5 F. do Nascimento Pereira
9 (C) D. Myshnov
67 M. Rodrigues Teixeira
H. Touati
#2478'
27 T. Cara
B. Castillo Rosendo
#9945+3'
37 P. Yade
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Cherkasy Arena
Capacity
10321
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Roman Blavatskiy
Vasyl Ostapchuk
Maksim Kozyryatskiy
Statistics
Possession
LNZ Cherkasy
44%
Oleksandria
56%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
0
3
Shots
4
41
Dangerous attacks
26
41
Possession
59
2
Corners
4
1
Free kicks
1
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
27
Throwins
19
68
Successful Dribbles Percentage
80
1
Hit Woodwork
0
19
Dribble Attempts
25
13
Successful Dribbles
20
4
Goal Kicks
10
1
Penalties
0
4
Substitutions
6
1
Assists
0
Attacking
73
Attacks
53
Possession
36
Long Passes
58
327
Passes
470
237
Successful Passes
381
21
Successful Long Passes
28
72
Successful Passes Percentage
81
58
Successful Long Passes Percentage
48
Defensive
5
Tackles
4
3
Saves
2
18
Interceptions
18
Build-up
3
Accurate Crosses
3
21
Total Crosses
13
Discipline
13
Fouls
5
2
Offsides
0
Lineup
Referee :
Roman Blavatskiy
Manager ▼
V. Ponomarov
Coach
Starting XI ▼
12
Oleksiy Palamarchuk
Goalkeeper
7.18 14
Oleksandr Drambayev
Defender
7.11 25
Oleg Gorin
Defender
6.32
33
Ilya Putrya
Defender
11Gennadiy Pasich
6.23Defender80'
34
Nazariy Muravskyi
Defender
6.74
7
Artur Mykytyshyn
Midfielder
6.39 18Abdul Awudu
6.62Attacker58'
16
Artur Ryabov
Midfielder
6.69 17
Denys Kuzyk
Midfielder
7.25 29
Roman Didyk
Midfielder
6.56 19Yevgeniy Pastukh
6.47Midfielder29'
6
Vyacheslav Tankovskyi
Attacker
6.72 5Shota Nonikashvili
6.49Midfielder80'
90
Mark Assinor
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
1
Dmytro Ledviy
Goalkeeper
72
Kirill Samoylenko
Goalkeeper
4
Ajdi Dajko
Defender
8
Adam Yakubu Hassan
Midfielder
22
Yegor Tverdokhlib
Midfielder
27
Jewison Bennette
Midfielder
21
Orest Lepskyi
Attacker
23
Danylo Kravchuk
Attacker
Referee :
Roman Blavatskiy
Manager ▼
K. Nesterenko
Coach
Starting XI ▼
72
Nazar Makarenko
Goalkeeper
6.34 23
Mykola Ogarkov
Defender
6.58 26
Miguel Campos
Defender
6.71 50
Jocelin Behiratche
Defender
6.43 86
Anton Bol
Defender
6.34 71Denys Shostak
6.66Midfielder45+3'
91
Bogdan Butko
Defender
6.45
20Daniil Vashchenko
Defender45+3'
6.46
5
Fernando Henrique
Midfielder
6.96 9
Dmytro Myshnyov (C)
Midfielder
7.21 67
Mauro Rodrigues
Midfielder
6.97 27
Tedi Cara
Attacker
6.82 24Hussayn Touati
6.15Midfielder78'
37
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Attacker
6.5 99Bryan Castillo
Attacker45+3'
5.73
Substitutes ▼
1
Viktor Dolgyi
Goalkeeper
97
Nazar Prokopenko
Defender
11
Artem Shulyanskyi
Midfielder
17
Artur Andreichyk
Midfielder
40
Dmytro Chernysh
Midfielder
49
Mateus Amaral
Attacker
77
Dmytrii Kremchanin
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+4'
Bryan Castillo
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Oleg Gorin
6th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+3'
Bryan Castillo
5th Yellowcard
Mark Assinor
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
90'
88'
Daniil Vashchenko
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Gennadiy Pasich → Ilya Putrya
8th Substitution
80'
Shota Nonikashvili → Vyacheslav Tankovskyi
7th Substitution
80'
78'
Hussayn Touati → Tedi Cara
6th Substitution
Mark Assinor
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Abdul Awudu → Artur Mykytyshyn
5th Substitution
58'
Nazariy Muravskyi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Denys Shostak → Anton Bol
3rd Substitution
45+3'
Daniil Vashchenko → Bogdan Butko
4th Substitution
45+3'
Bryan Castillo → Papa Ndiaga Yade
2nd Substitution
Ilya Putrya
Penalty / 1st Penalty
35'
31'
Bogdan Butko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Yevgeniy Pastukh → Roman Didyk
1st Substitution
29'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: LNZ Cherkasy exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.