Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Obolon' Arena Sat, 7 Mar - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar
0 – 0
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 1:30 PM
Taras Moroz 68' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Obolon'-Brovar 0–0 Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih. The match ended in a draw. Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 40%–60%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Rayda
M. Rayda
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Obolon'-Brovar O. Antonenko
O. Antonenko
VS
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih P. van Leeuwen
P. van Leeuwen
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Oleksandria Rank: D
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: L
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: D
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zorya Luhansk Rank: W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: D
Oleksandria Rank: W
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: D
Veres Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Obolon'-Brovar
29.19%
Draw
29.19%
Away Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
41.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
38.89
54.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Obolon'-Brovar
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Power Score
38.89
54.39
League Position
10
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Obolon'-Brovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Obolon'-Brovar Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Obolon'-Brovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Obolon'-Brovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
6.63
14.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.42
6.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Obolon'-Brovar -0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih +0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Obolon'-Brovar
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Obolon'-Brovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Obolon'-Brovar Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Obolon'-Brovar Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Obolon'-Brovar
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar Home
5 matches
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Away
Match Record
0
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
1
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:03:12+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Obolon' Arena
Capacity
5100
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mykhailo Rayda

Statistics

Possession
Obolon'-Brovar
42%
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
58%

Top Statistics

2 Shots 7
13 Dangerous attacks 33
40 Possession 60
1 Corners 6
18 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Goal Kicks 4
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

49 Attacks 67

Defensive

2 Saves 0

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 18

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Jhoel Maya → Bar Lin
9th Substitution
Event
Oleksandr Feshchenko → O. Zhovtenko
8th Substitution
83'
Event
R. Volokhatyi
4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
5th Yellowcard
80'
78'
Event
Carlos Rojas
3rd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Carlos Rojas → Andrusw Araujo
7th Substitution
Event
Artem Kulakovskyi → Denys Ustymenko
6th Substitution
72'
Event
O. Antonenko
2nd Redcard
69'
Event
Taras Moroz
1st Redcard
68'
Event
R. Volokhatyi → Yegor Prokopenko
5th Substitution
46'
Event
Ivan Nesterenko → Igor Medynskyi
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Matviy Bodnar → Yaroslav Shevchenko
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Giovany Herbert → Assane Seck
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
O. Zhovtenko
2nd Yellowcard
45+2'
45+2'
Event
Carlos Paraco
1st Yellowcard
Event
Nazariy Fedorivskyi → Denys Marchenko
1st Substitution
31'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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