SK Poltava vs Karpaty Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Zirka Fri, 13 Mar - 11:00 AM
Premier League
SK Poltava SK Poltava
0 Winner 4
Karpaty Karpaty
Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 11:00 AM
|
Goal
Xeber Alkain - 30'
Vladyslav Baboglo - 50'
Yan Kostenko - 70'
Baboucarr Faal - 74'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Karpaty securing a commanding 4-0 away victory over SK Poltava. The visitors established a narrow 1-0 lead by halftime before ruthlessly expanding their advantage in the second half. Pre-match expectations heavily favored the away side, as the market gave Karpaty a 69.7% win probability compared to SK Poltava'

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Karpaty showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Dashko
O. Dashko
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
T. Chopilko
T. Chopilko
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
I. Stashuk
I. Stashuk
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
O. Kalyonov
O. Kalyonov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
SK Poltava P. Matviychenko
P. Matviychenko
VS
Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
0.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 50 L
Kudrivka Rank: 42 L
Veres Rank: 48 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 50 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 44 L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kudrivka Rank: 43 D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 52 L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 73 L
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 59 L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 L
Veres Rank: 48 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Poltava
10.72%
Draw
19.6%
Away Karpaty
69.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.88
49.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Poltava
Karpaty
Power Score
35.88
49.95
League Position
16
9
Global Rank
1124
742

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Poltava — Opponent-weighted form score
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Poltava Karpaty

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Poltava

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
12.02
28.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.71
12.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Poltava -1.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Karpaty +1.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Karpaty
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Poltava Karpaty
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Poltava Karpaty
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Karpaty
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Poltava SK Poltava Home
1 matches
Karpaty Karpaty Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:02:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
V. Voskonyan
Armenia
13 V. Voskonyan
I. Ukhan
Ukraine
24 I. Ukhan
O. Veremiienko
Substitution
Ukraine
33 O. Veremiienko
E. Misyura
Ukraine
20 E. Misyura
A. Savenkov
Ukraine
12 A. Savenkov
V. Odariuk
Substitution
Ukraine
8 V. Odariuk
D. Plakhtyr
Substitution
Ukraine
44 D. Plakhtyr
A. Doroshenko
Substitution
Ukraine
21 A. Doroshenko
M. Kononov
Ukraine
2 M. Kononov
D. Sukhoruchko
Ukraine
38 D. Sukhoruchko
O. Vivdych
Substitution
Ukraine
88 O. Vivdych
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
R. Lyakh
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
V. Kholod
Ukraine
44 V. Kholod
V. Baboglo
Substitution
Moldova
4 V. Baboglo
D. Miroshnichenko
Ukraine
11 D. Miroshnichenko
B. Pereira da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
37 B. Pereira da Silva
E. da Silva Gomes
Substitution
Brazil
35 E. da Silva Gomes
A. Chachua
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
Y. Kostenko
Substitution
Ukraine
26 Y. Kostenko
B. Faal
Gambia
99 B. Faal
X. Alkain Mitxelena
Substitution
Spain
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Stadion Zirka
Capacity
13667
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleksandr Dashko
Taras Chopilko
Igor Stashuk
Oleksandr Kalyonov

Statistics

Possession
SK Poltava
46%
Karpaty
54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
0 Shots 6
61 Dangerous attacks 53
42 Possession 58
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Assists 3
8 Goal Kicks 9
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

102 Attacks 117

Defensive

4 Saves 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Kalyonov

Starting XI ▼

13
Valeriy Voskonyan
Valeriy Voskonyan Goalkeeper
5.38
2
Mykyta Kononov
Mykyta Kononov Defender
5.7
12
Andriy Savenkov
Andriy Savenkov Defender
5.7
20
Yevgen Misyura
Yevgen Misyura Defender
5.7
24
Ilya Ukhan
Ilya Ukhan Defender
5.7
33
Oleg Veremiyenko
Oleg Veremiyenko Defender
5.69
95
Igor Kotsyumaka
Igor Kotsyumaka
Defender79'
6.5
8
Volodymyr Odaryuk
Volodymyr Odaryuk Midfielder
6.27
7
Denys Galenkov
Denys Galenkov
Midfielder64'
6.27
21
A. Doroshenko
A. Doroshenko Midfielder
6.27
93
Bogdan Kobzar
Bogdan Kobzar
Attacker56'
6.43
44
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Dmytro Plakhtyr Midfielder
6.06
15
Vladyslav Danylenko
Vladyslav Danylenko
Midfielder56'
6.27
38
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Danyil Sukhoruchko Attacker
6.35
88
Oleksandr Vivdych
Oleksandr Vivdych Attacker
6.43
11
O. Piatov
O. Piatov
Midfielder56'
6.27
Referee : Oleksandr Kalyonov

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Vladyslav Baboglo
Vladyslav Baboglo Defender
6.66
3
Volodymyr Adamyuk
Volodymyr Adamyuk
Defender76'
6.5
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko Defender
6.5
44
Vitaliy Kholod
Vitaliy Kholod Defender
6.5
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
6.5
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
6.5
26
Yan Kostenko
Yan Kostenko Midfielder
6.65
7
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor
Midfielder76'
6.5
35
Edson Fernando
Edson Fernando Midfielder
6.5
15
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Midfielder81'
6.5
37
Bruninho
Bruninho Midfielder
6.95
33
Artur Shakh
Artur Shakh
Midfielder81'
6.5
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain Midfielder
6.69
14
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Midfielder86'
99
Baboucarr Faal
Baboucarr Faal Attacker
7.23

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Ilya Kvasnytsya → Xeber Alkain
10th Substitution
81'
Event
Valentyn Rubchynskyi → Edson Fernando
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Artur Shakh → Bruninho
9th Substitution
Event
Igor Kotsyumaka → Oleg Veremiyenko
7th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Volodymyr Adamyuk → Vladyslav Baboglo
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Paulo Vitor → Yan Kostenko
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Baboucarr Faal
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
70'
Event
Yan Kostenko
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
65'
Event
Bruninho
4th Yellowcard
Event
Denys Galenkov → Volodymyr Odaryuk
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Oleg Veremiyenko
3rd Yellowcard
63'
58'
Event
Vladyslav Baboglo
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Vladyslav Danylenko → Dmytro Plakhtyr
1st Substitution
56'
Event
O. Piatov → Oleksandr Vivdych
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Bogdan Kobzar → A. Doroshenko
2nd Substitution
56'
50'
Event
Vladyslav Baboglo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Xeber Alkain
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Dmytro Plakhtyr
1st Missed Penalty
25'
21'
Event
Yan Kostenko
1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Karpaty exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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