Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Livyi Bereh Sat, 7 Mar - 11:00 AM
Premier League
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
4 Winner 0
Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 11:00 AM
Jon Ceberio - 33'
Vladyslav Supryaga - 45', 56'
Kyrylo Kovalets - 62'
Goal
|
Nil Coch 80' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kolos Kovalivka has finished, ending in a stunning 4-0 full-time victory for the home side. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi established a comfortable 2-0 lead by half-time and maintained their dominance throughout. This result was completely unaligned with the pre-match market, which favored Kolos Kovalivka as the stronger team with a 43% win probability. Instead, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, who entered with just a 27.4% implied chance to win, produced a significant deviation from pre-game expectations. Although Kolos Kovalivka controlled the flow of play with 56% possession compared to the home team's 44%, they entirely failed to convert that advantage into goals. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both squads, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome was consistent with the underlying xG. However, the recorded efficiency shift was firmly in line with the match dynamics. The game also featured a major tactical hurdle when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi received a red card. Despite being reduced to ten men, the home side successfully navigated this red card distortion in the second half, absorbing the pressure and adding to their scoreline to secure a massive upset.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Paskhal
I. Paskhal
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Stashuk
I. Stashuk
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi S. Nahornyak
S. Nahornyak
VS
Kolos Kovalivka R. Kostyshyn
R. Kostyshyn
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: L
SK Poltava Rank: W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: D
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Karpaty Rank: W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: D
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: D
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: D
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
27.36%
Draw
29.62%
Away Kolos Kovalivka
43.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
33.3
49.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Kolos Kovalivka
Power Score
33.3
49.12
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Opponent-weighted form score
Kolos Kovalivka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Kolos Kovalivka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kolos Kovalivka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kolos Kovalivka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.77
11.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.16
19.77
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi +0.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Kolos Kovalivka -0.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Kolos Kovalivka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kolos Kovalivka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Kolos Kovalivka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Kolos Kovalivka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Kolos Kovalivka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Home
1 matches
Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:01:05+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Stadion Livyi Bereh
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Igor Paskhal
Igor Stashuk

Statistics

Possession
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
46%
Kolos Kovalivka
54%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
7 Shots 4
34 Dangerous attacks 45
44 Possession 56
4 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 4
3 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 7

Attacking

61 Attacks 78

Defensive

0 Saves 1

Discipline

7 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andriy Lipovuz → Jon Ceberio
10th Substitution
81'
Event
Nil Coch
1st Redcard
80'
Event
Andriy Matkevych → Carlos Rojas
9th Substitution
73'
Event
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Yevhen Zaporozhets → Kyrylo Kovalets
8th Substitution
69'
Event
Vadym Sydun → Vladyslav Supryaga
6th Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Ardit Tahiri → Yuriy Klymchuk
7th Substitution
69'
Event
4th Substitution
Event
Kyrylo Kovalets
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
62'
60'
Event
Luka Stankovski → Oleksandr Demchenko
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Danyil Alefirenko → Anton Salabay
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Ibrahim Kane → Artem Gusol
2nd Substitution
Event
Vladyslav Supryaga
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
56'
Event
Valeriy Luchkevych
3rd Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
Vladyslav Supryaga
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45'
Event
Kyrylo Kovalets
2nd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Jon Ceberio
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'
21'
Event
Eduard Kozik
1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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