Kolos Kovalivka vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Uman'fermmash Sun, 15 Mar - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka
1 – 1
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 1:30 PM
Anton Salabay - 49'
Goal
|
Goal
Nemanja Anđušić - 88'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Kolos Kovalivka 1–1 Zorya Luhansk. The match ended in a draw. Zorya Luhansk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zorya Luhansk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Novokhatny
V. Novokhatny
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.59
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
A. Bakhmetyev
A. Bakhmetyev
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.59
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
D. Kubryak
D. Kubryak
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.59
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Kolos Kovalivka R. Kostyshyn
R. Kostyshyn
VS
Zorya Luhansk V. Skripnik
V. Skripnik
1.07
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 42 L
Karpaty Rank: 50 W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 59 L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 57 D
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 73 D
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 42 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Poltava Rank: 35 W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 L
Kudrivka Rank: 42 D
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 55 L
Karpaty Rank: 51 W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 59 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kolos Kovalivka
36.02%
Draw
30.94%
Away Zorya Luhansk
33.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.89
51.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kolos Kovalivka
Zorya Luhansk
Power Score
50.89
51.49
League Position
7
8
Global Rank
714
695

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kolos Kovalivka — Opponent-weighted form score
Zorya Luhansk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kolos Kovalivka Zorya Luhansk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kolos Kovalivka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zorya Luhansk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kolos Kovalivka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.98
7.77
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
7.77
21.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kolos Kovalivka +1.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Zorya Luhansk -1.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kolos Kovalivka
Zorya Luhansk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kolos Kovalivka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kolos Kovalivka Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kolos Kovalivka Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kolos Kovalivka
Zorya Luhansk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka Home
10 matches
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
5
Goals
12
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
12
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:03:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
I. Pakholyuk
Ukraine
31 I. Pakholyuk
A. Ponedelnik
Ukraine
77 A. Ponedelnik
E. Kozik
Ukraine
3 E. Kozik
M. Burda
Ukraine
6 M. Burda
A. Tsurikov
Ukraine
9 (C) A. Tsurikov
N. Gagnidze
Georgia
20 N. Gagnidze
E. Trevizan Telles
Brazil
55 E. Trevizan Telles
O. Demchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
7 O. Demchenko
H. Artem
Substitution
Ukraine
15 H. Artem
Y. Klymchuk
Substitution
Ukraine
70 Y. Klymchuk
A. Salabay
Ukraine
17 A. Salabay
M. Turbaevsky
Ukraine
12 M. Turbaevsky
L. Reis Rodrigues
Brazil
10 (C) L. Reis Rodrigues
G. Eskinja
Austria
4 G. Eskinja
A. da Silva Cordeiro
Brazil
55 A. da Silva Cordeiro
I. Perduta
Ukraine
44 I. Perduta
B. Kushnirenko
Ukraine
77 B. Kushnirenko
D. Jelavić
Substitution
Croatia
27 D. Jelavić
D. Popara
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 D. Popara
N. Anđušić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7 N. Anđušić
A. Slesar
Ukraine
9 A. Slesar
R. Verley
Substitution
Panama
70 R. Verley

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Stadion Uman'fermmash
Capacity
5050
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Volodymyr Novokhatny
Andrii Bakhmetyev
Dmitriy Kubryak

Statistics

Possession
Kolos Kovalivka
50%
Zorya Luhansk
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Shots 1
33 Dangerous attacks 33
53 Possession 47
1 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 13
1 Assists 0
3 Substitutions 3

Attacking

84 Attacks 94

Defensive

0 Saves 4

Discipline

9 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Volodymyr Novokhatny

Starting XI ▼

31
Ivan Pakholyuk
Ivan Pakholyuk Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Eduard Kozik
Eduard Kozik Defender
6.26
6
Mykyta Burda
Mykyta Burda Defender
6.26
9
Andriy Tsurikov
Andriy Tsurikov (C) Defender
6.37
77
Andriy Ponedelnik
Andriy Ponedelnik Defender
6.26
7
Oleksandr Demchenko
Oleksandr Demchenko Midfielder
6.5
27
Taras Stepanenko
Taras Stepanenko
Midfielder82'
6.37
15
Artem Gusol
Artem Gusol Midfielder
6.5
14
Ibrahim Kane
Ibrahim Kane
Midfielder76'
6.37
17
Anton Salabay
Anton Salabay Midfielder
6.57
20
Nika Gagnidze
Nika Gagnidze Midfielder
6.37
55
Elias
Elias Midfielder
6.33
70
Yuriy Klymchuk
Yuriy Klymchuk Attacker
6.5
11
Ardit Tahiri
Ardit Tahiri
Attacker76'
6.46
Referee : Volodymyr Novokhatny

Starting XI ▼

12
Mykyta Turbayevskyi
Mykyta Turbayevskyi Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Gabriel Eskinja
Gabriel Eskinja Defender
6.26
10
Juninho
Juninho (C) Defender
6.26
44
Igor Perduta
Igor Perduta Defender
6.26
55
Jordan
Jordan Defender
6.26
6
Dejan Popara
Dejan Popara Midfielder
6.33
11
Igor Gorbach
Igor Gorbach
Midfielder90+1'
7
Nemanja Anđušić
Nemanja Anđušić Midfielder
6.57
9
Artem Slesar
Artem Slesar Midfielder
6.37
27
Domagoj Jelavic
Domagoj Jelavic Midfielder
6.37
19
Roman Salenko
Roman Salenko
Midfielder79'
6.5
77
Bogdan Kushnirenko
Bogdan Kushnirenko Midfielder
6.37
70
Reynaldiño Verley
Reynaldiño Verley Attacker
6.46
17
Fedir Zadorozhnyi
Fedir Zadorozhnyi
Attacker71'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Igor Gorbach → Dejan Popara
6th Substitution
88'
Event
Nemanja Anđušić
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Taras Stepanenko → Oleksandr Demchenko
5th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Roman Salenko → Domagoj Jelavic
4th Substitution
Event
Ardit Tahiri → Yuriy Klymchuk
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Ibrahim Kane → Artem Gusol
2nd Substitution
76'
71'
Event
Fedir Zadorozhnyi → Reynaldiño Verley
1st Substitution
Event
Elias
2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
3rd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Anton Salabay
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
49'
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Dejan Popara
1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zorya Luhansk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League View all league clusters