Shakhtar Donetsk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Sun, 15 Mar - 4:00 PM
Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
1 Winner 0
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 4:00 PM
Pedrinho - 62' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv. The result saw Shakhtar Donetsk take the points. Shakhtar Donetsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shakhtar Donetsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Romanov
V. Romanov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.41
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
V. Vysotsky
V. Vysotsky
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.41
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
D. Zaporozhenko
D. Zaporozhenko
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.41
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
D. Osaulenko
D. Osaulenko
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.41
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
VS
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv M. Bartulović
M. Bartulović
2.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oleksandria Rank: 48 W
Veres Rank: 48 W
Karpaty Rank: 51 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 44 W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 54 D
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 57 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 48 W
Oleksandria Rank: 49 W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 57 D
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 42 W
Veres Rank: 48 D
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 44 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shakhtar Donetsk
60.65%
Draw
24.6%
Away Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
14.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.53
46.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shakhtar Donetsk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Power Score
73.53
46.64
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
121
770

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shakhtar Donetsk Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
13.75
11.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.98
13.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Shakhtar Donetsk +0.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv -0.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shakhtar Donetsk Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Home
6 matches
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Away
Match Record
4
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
4
Goals
14
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
14
+12
Goal Difference
-12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:29:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
D. Riznyk
Ukraine
31 D. Riznyk
Y. Konoplia
Ukraine
26 Y. Konoplia
V. Bondar
Ukraine
5 (C) V. Bondar
M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
Brazil
4 M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
P. Azevedo Pereira
Brazil
13 P. Azevedo Pereira
O. Ocheretko
Ukraine
27 O. Ocheretko
E. Nazaryna
Ukraine
29 E. Nazaryna
P. Delmino da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
10 P. Delmino da Silva
A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
Substitution
Brazil
30 A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
L. Traore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
2 L. Traore
N. Martins da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 N. Martins da Silva
D. Varakuta
Ukraine
30 D. Varakuta
I. Krupskyi
Ukraine
27 I. Krupskyi
A. Shabanov
Ukraine
31 A. Shabanov
Y. Pavliuk
Ukraine
18 Y. Pavliuk
V. Salyuk
Ukraine
13 V. Salyuk
I. Kaliuzhnyi
Ukraine
5 (C) I. Kaliuzhnyi
D. Antyukh
Substitution
Ukraine
15 D. Antyukh
J. Árevalo Chaparro
Colombia
16 J. Árevalo Chaparro
V. Churko
Substitution
Ukraine
11 V. Churko
B. Zabergja
Substitution
Kosovo
26 B. Zabergja
P. Itodo
Substitution
Nigeria
98 P. Itodo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Arena L'viv
Capacity
34915
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vitaliy Romanov
Volodymyr Vysotsky
Dmytro Zaporozhenko
Dmytro Osaulenko

Statistics

Possession
SHK
55%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Shots 2
83 Dangerous attacks 55
52 Possession 48
5 Corners 2
5 Free kicks 7
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Kicks 4

Attacking

134 Attacks 121

Defensive

1 Saves 2

Discipline

7 Fouls 3

Lineup

Referee : Vitaliy Romanov

Starting XI ▼

31
Dmytro Riznyk
Dmytro Riznyk Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Marlon
Marlon Defender
6.49
5
Valeriy Bondar
Valeriy Bondar (C) Defender
6.49
13
Pedro Henrique
Pedro Henrique Defender
6.5
26
Yukhym Konoplya
Yukhym Konoplya Defender
6.5
10
Pedrinho
Pedrinho Midfielder
6.54
21
Artem Bondarenko
Artem Bondarenko
Midfielder63'
6.5
11
Newerton
Newerton Midfielder
6.5
37
Lucas Ferreira
Lucas Ferreira
Midfielder80'
6.5
27
Oleg Ocheretko
Oleg Ocheretko Midfielder
6.45
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna Midfielder
6.5
30
Alisson
Alisson Midfielder
6.5
17
Vinícius Tobias
Vinícius Tobias
Defender86'
2
Lassina Traoré
Lassina Traoré Attacker
6.5
49
Luca Meirelles
Luca Meirelles
Attacker81'
6.5
Referee : Vitaliy Romanov

Starting XI ▼

30
Danylo Varakuta
Danylo Varakuta Goalkeeper
6.12
13
Volodymyr Salyuk
Volodymyr Salyuk Defender
6.25
18
Yevgen Pavlyuk
Yevgen Pavlyuk Defender
6.26
27
Ilya Krupskyi
Ilya Krupskyi Defender
6.26
31
Artem Shabanov
Artem Shabanov Defender
6.25
5
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi (C) Midfielder
6.33
11
Vyacheslav Churko
Vyacheslav Churko Midfielder
6.5
45
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
Midfielder21'
6.37
15
Denys Antyukh
Denys Antyukh Midfielder
6.37
8
Sebastian Castillo
Sebastian Castillo
Attacker79'
6.5
16
Nicolás Arévalo
Nicolás Arévalo Midfielder
6.37
26
Baton Zabergja
Baton Zabergja Midfielder
6.37
19
Ermir Rashica
Ermir Rashica
Midfielder64'
6.5
98
Peter Mandela Itodo
Peter Mandela Itodo Attacker
6.46
99
Christian Mba
Christian Mba
Attacker78'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Vinícius Tobias → Alisson
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Luca Meirelles → Lassina Traoré
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Lucas Ferreira → Newerton
8th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Sebastian Castillo → Denys Antyukh
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Christian Mba → Peter Mandela Itodo
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Artem Shabanov
7th Yellowcard
Event
Marlon
5th Yellowcard
68'
68'
Event
Danylo Varakuta
6th Yellowcard
65'
Event
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi
4th Yellowcard
Event
4th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Ermir Rashica → Baton Zabergja
5th Substitution
Event
Artem Bondarenko → Pedrinho
2nd Substitution
63'
63'
Event
3rd Substitution
Event
Pedrinho
Penalty / 1st Penalty
62'
57'
Event
Volodymyr Salyuk
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Valeriy Bondar
2nd Yellowcard
53'
1ST-HALF
Event
Oleg Ocheretko
1st Yellowcard
45'
21'
Event
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev → Vyacheslav Churko
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Shakhtar Donetsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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