Rukh Vynnyky vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Mon, 9 Mar - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky
0 Winner 3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 1:30 PM
|
Goal
Yevgen Pavlyuk - 25'
Baton Zabergja - 26'
Artem Shabanov - 45+3'

CONTEXT

The match has finished, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv securing a decisive 3-0 victory over Rukh Vynnyky. The visitors did all their damage early, establishing their commanding 3-0 advantage by half-time. Coming into the fixture, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv was the clear favorite with a 54.6% pre-market win probability, compared to a 28.2% chance for a draw and a 17.2% chance for a Rukh Vynnyky victory. The final result was entirely market-aligned, though the one-sided margin represented a significant deviation driven by Metalist 1925 Kharkiv. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv controlled the overall flow of the match, dominating the ball with 63% possession compared to the hosts' 37%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be evaluated whether the final outcome was strictly consistent with xG metrics. However, the efficiency shift was recorded as in line with expectations, highlighting the visitors' effective execution with their sustained possession. The match was played cleanly with no red cards issued to either side, meaning major disciplinary events did not impact the tactical balance. Ultimately, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv capitalized on their status as the stronger team, comfortably taking all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Kogut
O. Kogut
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
K. Kozorog
K. Kozorog
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
D. Podvalnyi
D. Podvalnyi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
A. Likarenko
A. Likarenko
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Rukh Vynnyky I. Fedyk
I. Fedyk
VS
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv M. Bartulović
M. Bartulović
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.57
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
SK Poltava Rank: W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: W
Oleksandria Rank: W
Kudrivka Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oleksandria Rank: W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: D
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: W
Veres Rank: D
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: D
Karpaty Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rukh Vynnyky
17.23%
Draw
28.21%
Away Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
54.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
33.33
49.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rukh Vynnyky
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Power Score
33.33
49.42
League Position
13
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rukh Vynnyky — Opponent-weighted form score
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rukh Vynnyky Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rukh Vynnyky

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.59
24.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.92
14.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rukh Vynnyky -1.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv +1.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rukh Vynnyky Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky Home
7 matches
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
3
Draws
3
2
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
9
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:03:33+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Arena L'viv
Capacity
34915
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleg Kogut
Kristina Kozorog
Dmytro Podvalnyi
Andrii Likarenko

Statistics

Possession
Rukh Vynnyky
39%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
61%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
4 Shots 5
28 Dangerous attacks 54
37 Possession 63
3 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 2
0 Assists 2

Attacking

68 Attacks 100

Defensive

2 Saves 4

Discipline

15 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 4

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kostyantyn Kvas → Ostap Prytula
10th Substitution
90'
78'
Event
Sebastian Castillo → Peter Mandela Itodo
9th Substitution
69'
Event
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev → Nicolás Arévalo
8th Substitution
60'
Event
Valeriy Dubko → Artem Shabanov
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Ermir Rashica → Baton Zabergja
7th Substitution
60'
Event
Ari Moura → Denys Antyukh
6th Substitution
Event
Kyrylo Rybak → Vlad Raileanu
4th Substitution
59'
59'
Event
Vyacheslav Churko
Var
Event
Ivan Denysov → Igor Neves
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Klayver → Maksym Boyko
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Artem Shabanov
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Vitaliy Roman
1st Yellowcard
45+2'
Event
Bogdan Levytskyi → Mykola Kyrychok
1st Substitution
39'
26'
Event
Baton Zabergja
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
25'
Event
Yevgen Pavlyuk
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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