FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Sochi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stade Municipal 1 Sun, 8 Mar - 12:09 AM
Premier League
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
2 Winner 1
Sochi Sochi
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 12:09 AM
Adrián Balboa - 34'
Luka Tičić - 62'
Goal
|
Goal
Martin Kramaric - 80' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FK Nizjni Novgorod 2–1 Sochi. The result saw FK Nizjni Novgorod take the points. FK Nizjni Novgorod showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FK Nizjni Novgorod showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Bolshakov
K. Bolshakov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.62
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. Kashirin
D. Kashirin
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.62
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
E. Bolkhovitin
E. Bolkhovitin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.62
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
FK Nizjni Novgorod A. Shpilevskiy
A. Shpilevskiy
VS
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.67
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
Akron Rank: W
Zenit Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: D
CSKA Moskva Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: D
Akron Rank: L
Rostov Rank: L
Orenburg Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%
Draw
0%
Away Sochi
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
28.33
20.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Sochi
Power Score
28.33
20.33
League Position
13
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FK Nizjni Novgorod Sochi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.20
12.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.80
44.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FK Nizjni Novgorod +3.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Sochi -3.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Sochi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FK Nizjni Novgorod Sochi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Sochi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Sochi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Home
7 matches
Sochi Sochi Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
9
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:09:54+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 12:09 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Stade Municipal 1
Capacity
17856
Attendance
4246
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kirill Bolshakov
Danil Kashirin
Egor Bolkhovitin

Statistics

Possession
FK Nizjni Novgorod
54%
Sochi
46%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 3
62 Dangerous attacks 28
50 Possession 50
8 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

34 Throwins 14
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
21 Dribble Attempts 9
10 Successful Dribbles 3
2 Assists 0
18 Successful Headers 9
6 Goal Kicks 8
2 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

127 Attacks 90

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 76
383 Passes 383
292 Successful Passes 291
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
69 Long Passes 56
28 Successful Long Passes 19

Defensive

12 Tackles 25
2 Saves 4
7 Interceptions 10

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 10
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

11 Fouls 15
4 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Zakhar Fedorov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
89'
Event
A. Kovalenko
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Andrey Ivlev → Adrián Balboa
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Yuriy Koledin → Maksim Shnaptsev
9th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
Martin Kramaric
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
78'
Event
Anton Zinkovskiy → Gustavo Furtado
7th Substitution
Event
Adrián Balboa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
74'
72'
Event
A. Kovalenko → Dmitriy Vasiljev
6th Substitution
Event
Nikita Ermakov → Luka Tičić
5th Substitution
69'
67'
Event
Zakhar Fedorov → Vladimir Iljin
4th Substitution
Event
Luka Tičić
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
46'
Event
Roman Ezhov → Kirill Kravtsov
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Maksim Mukhin → Mikhail Ignatov
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Matvey Urvantsev → Olakunle Olusegun
1st Substitution
45'
Event
Edgardo Fariña
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
39'
Event
Adrián Balboa
Header / 1st Goal
34'
Event
Var
18'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FK Nizjni Novgorod exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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