Aalesund vs Lillestrøm Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Color Line Stadion Sun, 15 Mar - 4:00 PM
Eliteserien
Aalesund Aalesund
1 Winner 3
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 4:00 PM
Kristian Lonebu - 6'
Goal
|
Goal
Felix Vá - 18'
Thomas Lehne Olsen - 58', 79'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Aalesund 1–3 Lillestrøm. The result saw Lillestrøm take the points. Lillestrøm showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 40%–60%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lillestrøm showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Eskås
E. Eskås
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.9
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Aalesund K. Rekdal
K. Rekdal
VS
Lillestrøm H. Ødegaard
H. Ødegaard
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 9 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aalesund
29.25%
Draw
25.19%
Away Lillestrøm
45.56%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.86
46.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aalesund
Lillestrøm
Power Score
45.86
46.39
League Position
13
2
Global Rank
968
711

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aalesund — Opponent-weighted form score
Lillestrøm — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aalesund Lillestrøm

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aalesund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lillestrøm

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.63
33.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.00
39.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aalesund +0.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Lillestrøm -0.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aalesund
Lillestrøm
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aalesund Lillestrøm
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aalesund Lillestrøm
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aalesund
Lillestrøm
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aalesund Aalesund Home
4 matches
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
4
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:31:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
K. Klaesson
Norway
1 K. Klaesson
A. Hammer Kjelsen
Norway
5 A. Hammer Kjelsen
P. Aukland
Norway
45 P. Aukland
E. Engqvist
Sweden
22 E. Engqvist
K. Nesso
Norway
7 K. Nesso
M. Christensen
Denmark
21 M. Christensen
H. Hammer
Substitution
Norway
6 H. Hammer
H. Molvær Melland
Substitution
Norway
8 (C) H. Molvær Melland
J. Ørsal
Substitution
Norway
16 J. Ørsal
K. Lonnebu
Substitution
Norway
39 K. Lonnebu
I. Djantou Tchaboutang
Substitution
Cameroon
20 I. Djantou Tchaboutang
P. Dahlberg
Sweden
12 P. Dahlberg
S. Ottesen
Norway
3 S. Ottesen
S. Foss
Norway
5 S. Foss
E. Garnås
Substitution
Norway
4 E. Garnås
L. Ranger
Norway
2 L. Ranger
E. Bugale Kitolano
Substitution
Norway
17 E. Bugale Kitolano
Y. Ibrahimaj
Kosovo
29 Y. Ibrahimaj
M. Karlsbakk
Substitution
Norway
8 M. Karlsbakk
S. Drammeh
Gambia
15 S. Drammeh
T. Lehne Olsen
Substitution
Norway
10 (C) T. Lehne Olsen
V. António Félix
Substitution
Angola
20 V. António Félix

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Stadium
Color Line Stadion
Capacity
10778
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Espen Eskås

Statistics

Possession
Aalesund
42%
Lillestrøm
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 4
11 Shots 7
37 Dangerous attacks 56
40 Possession 60
3 Corners 7
9 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 21
7 Goal Attempts 8
72 Ball Safe 71
7 Goal Kicks 6
13 Dribble Attempts 22
6 Successful Dribbles 8
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
1 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

80 Attacks 102
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

23 Successful Long Passes 27
378 Passes 582
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
66 Long Passes 51
9 Key Passes 7
78 Successful Passes Percentage 84
293 Successful Passes 491

Defensive

9 Interceptions 9
5 Saves 6
22 Tackles 7

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
13 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

11 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Espen Eskås

Starting XI ▼

1
Kristoffer Klaesson
Kristoffer Klaesson Goalkeeper
7.41
5
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen Defender
6.37
22
E. Engqvist
E. Engqvist Defender
6.68
45
Philip Sandvik Aukland
Philip Sandvik Aukland Defender
6.26
6
Hakon Butli Hammer
Hakon Butli Hammer Midfielder
6.69
15
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Midfielder80'
6.46
7
Kristoffer Nessø
Kristoffer Nessø Midfielder
6.79
8
Henrik Melland
Henrik Melland (C) Midfielder
7.05
11
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Midfielder73'
6.84
16
J. Ørsahl
J. Ørsahl Midfielder
6.97
3
Ólafur Guðmundsson
Ólafur Guðmundsson
Defender61'
6.15
21
Mathias Christensen
Mathias Christensen Midfielder
7.16
20
I. Djantou
I. Djantou Attacker
6.83
27
Marcus Haagensen Reed
Marcus Haagensen Reed
Attacker61'
6.51
39
Kristian Lonebu
Kristian Lonebu Attacker
7.34
17
E. Myrlid
E. Myrlid
Attacker80'
7.02
Referee : Espen Eskås

Starting XI ▼

12
Pontus Dahlberg
Pontus Dahlberg Goalkeeper
7.77
2
Lars Ranger
Lars Ranger Defender
7.1
3
Sturla Ottesen
Sturla Ottesen Defender
7.15
4
Espen Garnås
Espen Garnås Defender
6.63
23
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Defender81'
6.41
5
Sander Moen Foss
Sander Moen Foss Defender
6.79
8
Markus Karlsbakk
Markus Karlsbakk Midfielder
6.74
14
Gustav Nyheim
Gustav Nyheim
Attacker76'
6.7
17
Eric Kitolano
Eric Kitolano Midfielder
7.12
6
Harald Woxen
Harald Woxen
Midfielder90+2'
29
Y. Ibrahimaj
Y. Ibrahimaj Midfielder
7.21
10
Thomas Lehne Olsen
Thomas Lehne Olsen (C) Attacker
2
7.81
9
Kparobo Arierhi
Kparobo Arierhi
Attacker90+2'
15
Salieu Drammeh
Salieu Drammeh Attacker
6.94
20
Felix Vá
Felix Vá Attacker
7.07
19
Camil Jebara
Camil Jebara
Attacker76'
6.8

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Kparobo Arierhi → Thomas Lehne Olsen
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Harald Woxen → Eric Kitolano
10th Substitution
81'
Event
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen → Espen Garnås
8th Substitution
Event
E. Myrlid → Kristian Lonebu
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch → Hakon Butli Hammer
7th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Thomas Lehne Olsen
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
78'
Event
Thomas Lehne Olsen
GoalkeeperSave
76'
Event
Camil Jebara → Felix Vá
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Gustav Nyheim → Markus Karlsbakk
5th Substitution
Event
E. Engqvist
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson → Henrik Melland
3rd Substitution
73'
62'
Event
Felix Vá
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Marcus Haagensen Reed → I. Djantou
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Ólafur Guðmundsson → J. Ørsahl
1st Substitution
61'
58'
Event
Thomas Lehne Olsen
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
18'
Event
Felix Vá
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Kristian Lonebu
Goal awarded
8'
Event
Kristian Lonebu
Header / 1st Goal
6'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lillestrøm exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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