Tromsø vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Alfheim Stadion Sun, 15 Mar - 6:15 PM
Eliteserien
Tromsø Tromsø
4 Winner 0
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 6:15 PM
Heine Åsen Larsen - 3'
Jens Hjertø-Dahl - 64', 72', 86'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Tromsø 4–0 Fredrikstad. The result saw Tromsø take the points. Tromsø showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tromsø showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Higraff
D. Higraff
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
VS
Fredrikstad A. Hagen
A. Hagen
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kristiansund Rank: 54 W
Rosenborg Rank: 64 W
Sandefjord Rank: 62 L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 W
Haugesund Rank: 42 W
Viking Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 82 L
Viking Rank: 76 L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 W
Kristiansund Rank: 54 W
Sandefjord Rank: 62 D
Strømsgodset Rank: 49 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 2 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tromsø
56.26%
Draw
25.39%
Away Fredrikstad
18.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.46
60.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tromsø
Fredrikstad
Power Score
66.46
60.89
League Position
1
16
Global Rank
260
430

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Fredrikstad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tromsø Fredrikstad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fredrikstad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.09
15.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.44
42.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tromsø +2.76 Efficiency Index
vs
Fredrikstad -2.76 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Fredrikstad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tromsø Fredrikstad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tromsø Fredrikstad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Fredrikstad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tromsø Tromsø Home
4 matches
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
4
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:55:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
L. Jean Cornic
Substitution
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
V. Skjærvik
Norway
4 V. Skjærvik
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
I. Vådebu
Norway
30 I. Vådebu
A. Warneryd
Substitution
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
D. Edvardsson
Substitution
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
11 (C) R. Yttergård Jenssen
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
L. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
7 L. Larsen
H. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 H. Larsen
M. Børsheim
Norway
77 M. Børsheim
S. Sørløkk
Substitution
Norway
13 S. Sørløkk
S. Owusu
Norway
28 (C) S. Owusu
U. Fredriksen
Substitution
Norway
12 U. Fredriksen
F. Holmé
Norway
4 F. Holmé
F. Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Norway
19 F. Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
S. Laghzaoui
Substitution
Norway
9 S. Laghzaoui
R. Shein
Substitution
Estonia
21 R. Shein
S. Holm
Sweden
6 S. Holm
O. Øhlenschlæger
Substitution
Denmark
20 O. Øhlenschlæger
H. Skogvold
Norway
23 H. Skogvold

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Stadium
Alfheim Stadion
Capacity
6687
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniel Higraff

Statistics

Possession
Tromsø
45%
Fredrikstad
55%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 1
42 Dangerous attacks 56
43 Possession 57
6 Corners 2
4 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Throwins 13
1 Hit Woodwork 0
11 Dribble Attempts 12
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
5 Goal Kicks 6
8 Successful Dribbles 6
11 Goal Attempts 5
54 Ball Safe 65
5 Substitutions 5
3 Assists 0

Attacking

102 Attacks 121

Possession

409 Successful Passes 562
460 Passes 616
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67
40 Long Passes 55
19 Successful Long Passes 37
89 Successful Passes Percentage 91
14 Key Passes 3

Defensive

12 Tackles 9
4 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 5

Build-up

9 Accurate Crosses 4
19 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

11 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Higraff

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
6.7
27
Mads Mikkelsen
Mads Mikkelsen
Midfielder87'
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik Defender
7.25
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
7.71
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
6.44
37
Sander Innvær
Sander Innvær
Midfielder82'
6.5
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu Defender
7.02
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
7.72
92
Johan Solstad-Nøis
Johan Solstad-Nøis
Midfielder87'
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
3
9.48
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen (C) Midfielder
8.84
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen Attacker
7.17
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Midfielder69'
6.74
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
7.54
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut
Attacker69'
6.49
Referee : Daniel Higraff

Starting XI ▼

77
Martin Børsheim
Martin Børsheim Goalkeeper
6.63
4
Fredrik Holmé
Fredrik Holmé Defender
6.6
12
Ulrik Fredriksen
Ulrik Fredriksen Defender
6.56
15
Eirik Julius Granaas
Eirik Julius Granaas
Midfielder72'
6.42
13
Sondre Sørløkk
Sondre Sørløkk Defender
5.81
3
Aleksander Andresen
Aleksander Andresen
Defender80'
6.23
19
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem Defender
6.06
28
Solomon Owusu
Solomon Owusu (C) Defender
6.62
6
Samuel Leach Holm
Samuel Leach Holm Midfielder
6.85
9
S. Laghzaoui
S. Laghzaoui Midfielder
6.36
10
Johannes Núñez
Johannes Núñez
Attacker57'
6.45
20
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger Midfielder
7.06
24
Leonard Owusu
Leonard Owusu
Midfielder57'
6.55
21
Rocco Shein
Rocco Shein Midfielder
6.73
14
Max Nilsson
Max Nilsson
Midfielder79'
6.55
23
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Henrik Langaas Skogvold Attacker
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mads Mikkelsen → Leo Cornic
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Johan Solstad-Nøis → David Edvardsson
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Header / 4th Goal
86'
Event
Sander Innvær → Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
8th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Aleksander Andresen → Sondre Sørløkk
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Max Nilsson → Rocco Shein
6th Substitution
Event
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Header / 3rd Goal
72'
72'
Event
Eirik Julius Granaas → Ulrik Fredriksen
5th Substitution
Event
Daniel Braut → Heine Åsen Larsen
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer → Lars Olden Larsen
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Header / 2nd Goal
64'
57'
Event
Johannes Núñez → S. Laghzaoui
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Leonard Owusu → Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
21'
Event
Ulrik Fredriksen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Heine Åsen Larsen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Tromsø exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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