Young Boys vs Thun Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadion Wankdorf (Bern) Sun, 8 Mar - 3:30 PM
Super League
Young Boys YBO
1 Winner 2
Thun THU
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 3:30 PM
Alvyn Sanches - 7'
Goal
|
Goal
Valmir Matoshi - 50'
Nils Reichmuth - 80'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Young Boys 0–2 Thun. The result saw Thun take the points. Thun showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Thun showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Schärer
S. Schärer
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.12
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
J. Erni
J. Erni
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.12
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
M. Odiet
M. Odiet
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.12
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
N. Tuberosa
N. Tuberosa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.12
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Young Boys G. Seoane
G. Seoane
VS
Thun M. Lustrinelli
M. Lustrinelli
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.26
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zürich Rank: W
Thun Rank: L
Lausanne Sport Rank: L
Lugano Rank: L
Grasshopper Rank: L
Luzern Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Gallen Rank: D
Luzern Rank: W
Winterthur Rank: W
Sion Rank: W
Lausanne Sport Rank: W
Servette Rank: W
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 18 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Young Boys
43.34%
Draw
24.52%
Away Thun
32.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.28
65.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Young Boys
Thun
Power Score
48.28
65.3
League Position
6
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Young Boys — Opponent-weighted form score
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Young Boys Thun

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Young Boys

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Thun

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Young Boys ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Thun
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.89
40.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.74
31.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Young Boys -0.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Thun +0.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Young Boys
Thun
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Young Boys ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Thun
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Young Boys Thun
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Young Boys Thun
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Young Boys
Thun
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Young Boys YBO Home
2 matches
Thun THU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:11:04+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium
Stadion Wankdorf (Bern)
Capacity
32000
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sandro Schärer
Jonas Erni
Maxime Odiet
N. Tuberosa

Statistics

Possession
YBO
51%
THU
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 7
38 Dangerous attacks 63
53 Possession 47
3 Corners 7
17 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

19 Throwins 16
9 Dribble Attempts 16
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
78 Ball Safe 52
10 Goal Kicks 7
9 Goal Attempts 8
6 Successful Dribbles 7
0 Penalties 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

80 Attacks 105
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

34 Successful Long Passes 34
264 Successful Passes 227
75 Long Passes 78
75 Successful Passes Percentage 71
352 Passes 319
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
11 Key Passes 11

Defensive

7 Interceptions 5
16 Tackles 23
3 Saves 5

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 14
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Darian Males
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
88'
Event
Michael Heule
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Dominik Pech → Yan Valery
9th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Noah Rupp → Justin Roth
10th Substitution
Event
Christian Fassnacht
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
84'
80'
Event
Nils Reichmuth
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Chris Bedia → Samuel Essende
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Stefan Bukinac → Loris Benito
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Alan Virginius → Alvyn Sanches
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Sandro Lauper
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Darian Males → Joël Monteiro
5th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Furkan Dursun → Brighton Labeau
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Christopher Ibayi → Elmin Rastoder
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Nils Reichmuth → Franz-Ethan Meichtry
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Justin Roth
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Lucien Dähler
Goal disallowed
50'
Event
Valmir Matoshi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
49'
Event
Leonardo Bertone
GoalkeeperSave
48'
Event
Elmin Rastoder
Penalty awarded
46'
Event
Valmir Matoshi → Kastriot Imeri
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Edimilson Fernandes
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
28'
10'
Event
Marco Bürki
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Alvyn Sanches
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Thun exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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