Lugano vs Sion Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadio di Cornaredo
Fri, 6 Mar - 2:09 PM
Super League
Lugano
Lugano
2
1
1
Sion
SIO
Full Time
Fri, 6 Mar
2:09 PM
Renato Steffen - 12'
Kevin Behrens - 62'
|
Ali Kabacalman - 10' (P)
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 16
CONTEXT
The match between Lugano and Sion has finished, with Lugano securing a 2-1 victory over the visitors. The teams were evenly matched at 1-1 at half-time, but Lugano ultimately managed to pull ahead in the second half to claim the win. Heading into the fixture, the pre-match market correctly favored Lugano with a 44.5% win probability, compared to a 27.9% chance for a draw and 27.5% for a Sion victory. Because the stronger home team took all three points, the final result was fully aligned with pre-match market expectations. Despite this alignment, Lugano's victory still represented a significant deviation level of 55.5% when evaluated against the overall market spread. On the pitch, Lugano dictated the pace, holding a slight advantage with 54% possession compared to Sion's 46%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to assess chance-creation alignment, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with standard expectations. Additionally, the match flowed cleanly without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card to impact the final outcome.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Turkes
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
F. San
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
J. Erni
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
D. Känel
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
M. Croci-Torti
VS
D. Tholot
1.92
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.42
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion
Rank:
W
Grasshopper
Rank:
L
Lausanne Sport
Rank:
W
Basel
Rank:
D
Servette
Rank:
D
Winterthur
Rank:
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano
Rank:
L
Servette
Rank:
D
Young Boys
Rank:
W
Thun
Rank:
L
Basel
Rank:
W
Luzern
Rank:
D
15
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 11 - 12
12
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Lugano
44.54%
Draw
27.93%
Sion
27.53%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.33
48.81
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
Sion
Power Score
58.33
48.81
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Lugano
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Sion
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Lugano Sion
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Lugano
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Sion
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Lugano
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Sion
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.76
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.78
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Lugano
-0.76
Efficiency Index
vs
Sion
+0.76
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Sion
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Lugano
vs
Sion
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Lugano
Sion
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00
vs
+1.00
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Lugano
Sion
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
Lugano
Sion
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Lugano
Lugano
Home
18
matches
Sion
SIO
Away
Match Record
8
Wins
5
5
Draws
5
5
Losses
8
Goals
32
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
32
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
1.22
xG
1.68
1.68
xGA
1.22
Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:23:11+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:09 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity
6390
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mirel Turkes
Fedayi San
Jonas Erni
Daniel Von Känel
Statistics
Possession
Lugano
52%
SIO
48%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
1
1
Big Chances Created
1
7
Shots
9
41
Dangerous attacks
48
54
Possession
46
2
Corners
5
15
Free kicks
9
2
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
18
Dribble Attempts
18
23
Throwins
21
28
Successful Dribbles Percentage
39
5
Successful Dribbles
7
3
Goal Kicks
7
67
Ball Safe
65
7
Goal Attempts
4
0
Penalties
1
0
Hit Woodwork
1
4
Substitutions
5
1
Assists
0
Attacking
81
Attacks
96
Possession
58
Long Passes
62
86
Successful Passes Percentage
83
67
Successful Long Passes Percentage
53
39
Successful Long Passes
33
389
Successful Passes
322
454
Passes
386
4
Key Passes
5
Defensive
17
Tackles
22
11
Interceptions
4
1
Saves
2
Build-up
13
Total Crosses
20
1
Accurate Crosses
5
Discipline
11
Fouls
16
Events
2ND-HALF
João Carbone → Yanis Cimignani
9th Substitution
90+4'
Daniel Dos Santos
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Zachary Brault-Guillard → Renato Steffen
8th Substitution
82'
78'
Numa Lavanchy
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
Benjamin Kololli → Théo Berdayes
6th Substitution
73'
Adrien Llukes → Ali Kabacalman
7th Substitution
72'
Winsley Boteli → Rilind Nivokazi
5th Substitution
Kevin Behrens
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
59'
Ilyas Chouaref → Franck Surdez
4th Substitution
59'
Liam Chipperfield → Josias Lukembila
3rd Substitution
Kevin Behrens → Georgios Koutsias
1st Substitution
58'
Hicham Mahou → Ahmed Kendouci
2nd Substitution
58'
52'
Franck Surdez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Georgios Koutsias
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
Renato Steffen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
12'
10'
Ali Kabacalman
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Lugano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.