Thun vs St. Gallen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stockhorn Arena Fri, 6 Mar - 2:11 PM
Super League
Thun THU
2 – 2
St. Gallen St. Gallen
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:11 PM
Genís Montolio - 62'
Leonardo Bertone - 55' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Christian Witzig - 90+5'
Lukas Görtler - 37' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Thun and St. Gallen has finished, resulting in a 2-2 draw at full-time. St. Gallen took an early advantage, going into halftime with a 1-0 lead, before the hosts battled back in the second half to secure a point. Pre-match expectations heavily favored Thun, who entered as the stronger side with a 49.4% implied win probability. With the draw priced at just 23.8% and a St. Gallen win at 26.8%, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market, causing a significant deviation that negatively impacted Thun. Play was tightly contested throughout the ninety minutes. Thun held a narrow advantage in possession, controlling 51% of the ball compared to St. Gallen's 49%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final score was consistent with either team's underlying chance creation. However, the observed efficiency shift was in line with the match dynamics. The fixture was a clean affair, with zero red cards issued to either side

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Thun showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Mandach

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. De Almeida

1st Assistant

P. Hirzel

2nd Assistant

H. Qovanaj

4th Official

Thun M. Lustrinelli
M. Lustrinelli
VS
St. Gallen E. Maaßen
E. Maaßen
2.26
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.7
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Gallen Rank: D
Luzern Rank: W
Winterthur Rank: W
Sion Rank: W
Lausanne Sport Rank: W
Servette Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Thun Rank: D
Winterthur Rank: W
Servette Rank: D
Winterthur Rank: W
Grasshopper Rank: D
Young Boys Rank: W
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 9 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Thun
49.41%
Draw
23.77%
Away St. Gallen
26.82%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.75
60.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Thun
St. Gallen
Power Score
64.75
60.71
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Gallen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Thun St. Gallen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Thun

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Gallen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Thun ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Gallen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.69
38.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.88
25.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Thun -1.18 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Gallen +1.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Thun
St. Gallen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Thun
vs
St. Gallen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Thun St. Gallen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +1.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Thun St. Gallen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Thun
St. Gallen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Thun THU Home
3 matches
St. Gallen St. Gallen Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
2.46
xG
2.07
2.07
xGA
2.46

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:26:00+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 06, 2026, 02:11 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium :
Stockhorn Arena
Capacity :
10398
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stéphane De Almeida
Pascal Hirzel
Hajrim Qovanaj
Johannes von Mandach

Statistics

Possession
THU
51%
St. Gallen
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 4
42 Dangerous attacks 41
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 24
5 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

16 Throwins 24
82 Ball Safe 93
10 Dribble Attempts 17
80 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41
8 Successful Dribbles 7
9 Goal Kicks 7
8 Goal Attempts 5
1 Penalties 1
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

88 Attacks 83
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

199 Successful Passes 209
297 Passes 301
92 Long Passes 81
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
67 Successful Passes Percentage 69
48 Successful Long Passes 36
9 Key Passes 10

Defensive

11 Tackles 9
6 Interceptions 5
1 Saves 4

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 4
25 Fouls 12

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Christian Witzig
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Furkan Dursun → Elmin Rastoder
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Leonardo Bertone
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
83'
82'
Event
Tiemoko Ouattara → Alessandro Vogt
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Nino Weibel → Carlo Boukhalfa
6th Substitution
Event
Christopher Ibayi → Brighton Labeau
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Nils Reichmuth → Valmir Matoshi
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Franz-Ethan Meichtry → Kastriot Imeri
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Justin Roth → Mattias Käit
3rd Substitution
72'
69'
Event
Diego Besio → Aliou Baldé
1st Substitution
Event
Genís Montolio
Header / 1st Goal
62'
Event
Leonardo Bertone
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
55'
Event
Valmir Matoshi
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jan Bamert
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
37'
37'
Event
Lukas Görtler
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
36'
Event
Brighton Labeau
Penalty awarded
Event
Mauro Lustrinelli
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
22'
22'
Event
Hugo Vandermersch
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Marco Bürki
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
11'
11'
Event
Aliou Baldé
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Kastriot Imeri
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
3'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Thun exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Thun vs St. Gallen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.