Sønderjyske Fodbold vs AGF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Sydbank Park Sun, 15 Mar - 3:00 PM
Superliga
Sønderjyske Fodbold SON
1 – 1
AGF AGF
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 3:00 PM
M. Jensen - 90+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Tobias Bech - 68'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sønderjyske Fodbold 1–1 AGF. The match ended in a draw. AGF showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 47%–53%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AGF showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Putros
S. Putros
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.29
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Rasmussen
J. Rasmussen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.29
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Yurdakul
D. Yurdakul
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.29
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Bramsen
S. Bramsen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.29
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sønderjyske Fodbold T. Nørgaard
T. Nørgaard
VS
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
1.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.36
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Odense BK Rank: 57 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 66 D
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 W
Nordsjælland Rank: 65 L
FC København Rank: 70 W
Viborg FF Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 50 W
Viborg FF Rank: 63 W
Fredericia Rank: 51 D
Odense BK Rank: 57 W
Randers FC Rank: 62 W
FC København Rank: 70 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 12 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sønderjyske Fodbold
25.57%
Draw
26.62%
Away AGF
47.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.11
69.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sønderjyske Fodbold
AGF
Power Score
62.11
69.9
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
394
182

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sønderjyske Fodbold — Opponent-weighted form score
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sønderjyske Fodbold AGF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sønderjyske Fodbold ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AGF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.89
42.26
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.26
29.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sønderjyske Fodbold -1.23 Efficiency Index
vs
AGF +1.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sønderjyske Fodbold
AGF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sønderjyske Fodbold ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AGF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sønderjyske Fodbold AGF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sønderjyske Fodbold AGF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sønderjyske Fodbold
AGF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sønderjyske Fodbold SON Home
10 matches
AGF AGF Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
2
Goals
11
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
11
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:18:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
M. Sorensen
Denmark
16 M. Sorensen
M. Soulas
France
12 M. Soulas
M. Jensen
Denmark
5 M. Jensen
P. Kristensen
Denmark
19 P. Kristensen
S. Sylvest Wæver
Substitution
Denmark
3 S. Sylvest Wæver
T. Sommer
Denmark
26 T. Sommer
R. Vinderslev
Substitution
Denmark
6 (C) R. Vinderslev
D. Grétarsson
Iceland
4 D. Grétarsson
L. Qamili
Albania
15 L. Qamili
M. Hoppe
Substitution
United States
9 M. Hoppe
S. Haidara
Substitution
31 S. Haidara
J. Hansen
Denmark
1 J. Hansen
E. Kahl
Substitution
Sweden
19 E. Kahl
H. Dalsgaard
Denmark
3 H. Dalsgaard
F. Beijmo
Sweden
2 F. Beijmo
G. Links
South Africa
11 G. Links
K. Yakob
Substitution
Iraq
17 K. Yakob
M. Knudsen
Norway
4 M. Knudsen
R. Carstensen
Substitution
Denmark
29 R. Carstensen
K. Malt Arnstad
Norway
10 K. Malt Arnstad
P. Mortensen
Substitution
Denmark
9 (C) P. Mortensen
T. Kristensen
Substitution
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Stadium
Sydbank Park
Capacity
10000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sandi Putros
Jacob Rasmussen
Deniz Yurdakul
Steffen Beck Bramsen

Statistics

Possession
SON
47%
AGF
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 8
41 Dangerous attacks 48
47 Possession 53
5 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 9
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
7 Successful Dribbles 7
13 Dribble Attempts 16
13 Throwins 22
91 Ball Safe 100
7 Goal Attempts 11
4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

86 Attacks 106
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

78 Long Passes 50
7 Key Passes 9
406 Passes 474
73 Successful Passes Percentage 81
297 Successful Passes 386
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
31 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

10 Interceptions 9
3 Saves 1
21 Tackles 16

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 24
7 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Sandi Putros

Starting XI ▼

16
Marcus Bundgaard
Marcus Bundgaard Goalkeeper
6.94
5
M. Jensen
M. Jensen Defender
8.08
12
M. Soulas
M. Soulas Defender
6.95
19
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen Defender
7.06
3
S. Wæver
S. Wæver Midfielder
6.85
7
S. Emini
S. Emini
Midfielder78'
6.56
4
Daníel Leó Grétarsson
Daníel Leó Grétarsson Midfielder
6.74
6
R. Vinderslev
R. Vinderslev (C) Midfielder
6.56
22
A. Oggesen
A. Oggesen
Midfielder78'
6.51
26
T. Sommer
T. Sommer Midfielder
6.57
9
M. Hoppe
M. Hoppe Attacker
6.79
24
O. Hyseni
O. Hyseni
Attacker85'
6.83
15
Lirim Qamili
Lirim Qamili Attacker
6.47
31
M. Haidara
M. Haidara Attacker
6.98
11
A. Lyng
A. Lyng
Attacker57'
6.61
Referee : Sandi Putros

Starting XI ▼

1
Jesper Hansen
Jesper Hansen Goalkeeper
6.54
2
Felix Beijmo
Felix Beijmo Defender
7.06
3
Henrik Dalsgaard
Henrik Dalsgaard Defender
6.81
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
6.97
5
Frederik Tingager
Frederik Tingager
Defender75'
6.17
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
7.16
11
Gift Links
Gift Links Midfielder
7.22
17
Kevin Yakob
Kevin Yakob Midfielder
6.35
6
Nicolai Poulsen
Nicolai Poulsen
Midfielder65'
6.58
29
Rasmus Carstensen
Rasmus Carstensen Midfielder
6.93
14
Tobias Mölgaard
Tobias Mölgaard
Defender90'
9
Patrick Mortensen
Patrick Mortensen (C) Attacker
6.92
13
Janni Serra
Janni Serra
Attacker65'
6.42
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad Attacker
6.74
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
7.91
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen
Midfielder90'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
M. Jensen
Header / 2nd Goal
90+3'
90'
Event
Tobias Mölgaard → Rasmus Carstensen
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Sebastian Jørgensen → Tobias Bech
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Nicolai Poulsen
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
O. Hyseni → M. Hoppe
7th Substitution
85'
Event
A. Oggesen → R. Vinderslev
6th Substitution
78'
Event
S. Emini → S. Wæver
5th Substitution
78'
75'
Event
Frederik Tingager → Eric Kahl
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Tobias Bech
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
65'
Event
Nicolai Poulsen → Kevin Yakob
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Janni Serra → Patrick Mortensen
3rd Substitution
Event
A. Lyng → M. Haidara
1st Substitution
57'
Event
R. Vinderslev
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
52'
Event
M. Haidara
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Felix Beijmo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Magnus Knudsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AGF exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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