Union Saint-Gilloise vs Dender Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Joseph Mariën Sat, 14 Mar - 5:15 PM
Pro League
Union Saint-Gilloise USG
2 Winner 0
Dender DEN
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 5:15 PM
Mateo Biondic - 59'
Kevin Rodríguez - 80'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Union Saint-Gilloise 2–0 Dender. The result saw Union Saint-Gilloise take the points. Union Saint-Gilloise showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 49%–51%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Union Saint-Gilloise showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Verbeke
B. Verbeke
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
G. Seeldraeyers
G. Seeldraeyers
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
W. Cochet
W. Cochet
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
W. Smet
W. Smet
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Union Saint-Gilloise D. Hubert
D. Hubert
VS
Dender Y. Ferrera
Y. Ferrera
2.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.81
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
La Louvière Rank: 67 W
Club Brugge Rank: 84 W
OH Leuven Rank: 67 D
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 71 D
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 D
Sint-Truiden Rank: 78 L
OH Leuven Rank: 67 L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 66 L
Genk Rank: 78 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Union Saint-Gilloise
73.45%
Draw
18.61%
Away Dender
7.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.02
60.76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Union Saint-Gilloise
Dender
Power Score
84.02
60.76
League Position
1
16
Global Rank
35
433

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Dender — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Union Saint-Gilloise Dender

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Union Saint-Gilloise

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dender

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Union Saint-Gilloise ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dender
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.06
14.12
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.12
23.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Union Saint-Gilloise +0.79 Efficiency Index
vs
Dender -0.79 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Dender
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Union Saint-Gilloise
vs
Dender
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Union Saint-Gilloise Dender
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Union Saint-Gilloise Dender
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Union Saint-Gilloise
Dender
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Union Saint-Gilloise USG Home
3 matches
Dender DEN Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
5
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:28:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
K. Scherpen
Substitution
Netherlands
37 K. Scherpen
K. Mac Allister
Argentina
5 K. Mac Allister
C. Burgess
England
16 (C) C. Burgess
R. Sykes
England
26 R. Sykes
A. Khalaili
Israel
25 A. Khalaili
A. Zorgane
Algeria
8 A. Zorgane
K. Van de Perre
Belgium
6 K. Van de Perre
G. da Silva Carvalho
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Carvalho
B. Zeneli
Substitution
Kosovo
23 B. Zeneli
A. El Hadj
Substitution
Belgium
10 A. El Hadj
M. Biondic
Substitution
Germany
9 M. Biondic
G. Gallon
France
93 G. Gallon
F. Ferraro
Substitution
Belgium
88 F. Ferraro
B. Goncalves
France
7 B. Goncalves
L. Marijnissen
Netherlands
5 L. Marijnissen
J. Sambu Mansoni
Belgium
70 J. Sambu Mansoni
M. Viltard
Substitution
France
24 M. Viltard
N. Rodes
Substitution
Belgium
18 (C) N. Rodes
N. Mbamba
Substitution
Belgium
17 N. Mbamba
R. Květ
Czech Republic
16 R. Květ
D. Toshevski
Macedonia
9 D. Toshevski
D. Hrnčár
Substitution
Slovakia
20 D. Hrnčár

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 05:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium
Stade Joseph Mariën
Capacity
50093
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bert Verbeke
Gianni Seeldraeyers
Wouter Cochet
Wim Smet

Statistics

Possession
USG
49%
DEN
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 4
46 Dangerous attacks 44
49 Possession 51
5 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32
13 Dribble Attempts 19
6 Successful Dribbles 6
18 Throwins 26
4 Goal Attempts 4
0 Injuries 1
17 Successful Headers 16
5 Substitutions 5
70 Ball Safe 89
4 Goal Kicks 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

110 Attacks 86

Possession

48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59
31 Successful Long Passes 49
80 Successful Passes Percentage 78
447 Passes 460
64 Long Passes 83
358 Successful Passes 360
3 Key Passes 5

Defensive

1 Saves 1
17 Tackles 16
16 Interceptions 11

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 17
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

37
Kjell Scherpen
Kjell Scherpen Goalkeeper
6.9
1
Vic Chambaere
Vic Chambaere
Goalkeeper46'
6.52
5
Kevin Mac Allister
Kevin Mac Allister Defender
7.28
16
Christian Burgess
Christian Burgess (C) Defender
7.62
26
Ross Sykes
Ross Sykes Defender
7.07
6
Kamiel Van De Perre
Kamiel Van De Perre Midfielder
7.24
8
Adem Zorgane
Adem Zorgane Midfielder
6.65
11
Guilherme Smith
Guilherme Smith Midfielder
6.97
20
Marc Giger
Marc Giger
Attacker86'
25
Anan Khalaili
Anan Khalaili Midfielder
6.89
9
Mateo Biondic
Mateo Biondic Attacker
7.1
13
Kevin Rodríguez
Kevin Rodríguez
Attacker63'
6.76
10
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Anouar Ait El Hadj Attacker
6.65
17
Rob Schoofs
Rob Schoofs
Midfielder63'
6.82
23
Besfort Zeneli
Besfort Zeneli Attacker
6.94
27
Louis Patris
Louis Patris
Defender79'
6.42
Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

93
Gauthier Gallon
Gauthier Gallon Goalkeeper
6.59
5
Luc Marijnissen
Luc Marijnissen Defender
6.63
7
Bryan Goncalves
Bryan Goncalves Defender
6.8
70
Marsoni Sambu
Marsoni Sambu Defender
6.66
88
Fabio Ferraro
Fabio Ferraro Defender
6
19
Jordan Kadiri
Jordan Kadiri
Attacker84'
6.53
17
Noah Mbamba
Noah Mbamba Midfielder
6.92
27
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Attacker84'
6.52
18
Nathan Rôdes
Nathan Rôdes (C) Midfielder
6.53
11
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Attacker76'
6.52
24
Malcolm Viltard
Malcolm Viltard Midfielder
6.66
23
Desmond Acquah
Desmond Acquah
Midfielder76'
6.39
9
David Toševski
David Toševski Attacker
6.8
16
Roman Kvet
Roman Kvet Attacker
6.68
20
David Hrncar
David Hrncar Attacker
6.83
45
Amine Daali
Amine Daali
Midfielder68'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marc Giger → Guilherme Smith
10th Substitution
86'
84'
Event
Alireza Jahanbakhsh → Noah Mbamba
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Jordan Kadiri → Fabio Ferraro
9th Substitution
Event
Kevin Rodríguez
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
Event
Louis Patris → Besfort Zeneli
7th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Marsoni Sambu
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
76'
Event
Desmond Acquah → Malcolm Viltard
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Ragnar Oratmangoen → Nathan Rôdes
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Amine Daali → David Hrncar
4th Substitution
Event
Rob Schoofs → Anouar Ait El Hadj
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Kevin Rodríguez → Mateo Biondic
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Mateo Biondic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
59'
Event
Vic Chambaere → Kjell Scherpen
1st Substitution
46'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Union Saint-Gilloise exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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