Gent vs Mechelen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Planet Group Arena Sun, 8 Mar - 3:00 PM
Pro League
Gent GNT
3 Winner 1
Mechelen MEC
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 3:00 PM
Max Dean - 31' (P)
Leonardo Lopes - 45+2'
Ibrahima Cissé - 83'
Goal
|
Goal
Myron van Brederode - 69'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Gent 3–1 Mechelen. The result saw Gent take the points. Gent showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 46%–54%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gent showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. D'hondt
L. D'hondt
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
G. Seeldraeyers
G. Seeldraeyers
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
N. Claes
N. Claes
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
S. Bourdeaud'hui
S. Bourdeaud'hui
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Gent R. Demil
R. Demil
VS
Mechelen F. Vanderbiest
F. Vanderbiest
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: L
Cercle Brugge Rank: L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
OH Leuven Rank: L
La Louvière Rank: D
Standard Liège Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
La Louvière Rank: W
Genk Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
OH Leuven Rank: D
Westerlo Rank: D
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 11 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gent
45.89%
Draw
26.36%
Away Mechelen
27.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.43
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gent
Mechelen
Power Score
46.43
50
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gent — Opponent-weighted form score
Mechelen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gent Mechelen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gent

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mechelen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gent ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mechelen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.04
20.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.93
33.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gent +1.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Mechelen -1.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gent
Mechelen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gent ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mechelen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gent Mechelen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gent Mechelen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gent
Mechelen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gent GNT Home
17 matches
Mechelen MEC Away
Match Record
10
Wins
2
5
Draws
5
2
Losses
10
Goals
33
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
33
+14
Goal Difference
-14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:09:33+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium
Planet Group Arena
Capacity
20185
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lothar D'hondt
Gianni Seeldraeyers
Nico Claes
Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Statistics

Possession
GNT
47%
MEC
53%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 2
44 Dangerous attacks 66
46 Possession 54
3 Corners 5
18 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

19 Successful Headers 20
16 Throwins 27
13 Dribble Attempts 9
6 Successful Dribbles 4
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
5 Goal Kicks 6
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 4
9 Goal Attempts 3
73 Ball Safe 85
2 Injuries 3
2 Assists 1

Attacking

98 Attacks 104
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 81
63 Long Passes 42
379 Passes 465
296 Successful Passes 376
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
10 Key Passes 4
28 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

15 Interceptions 6
18 Tackles 9
2 Saves 3

Build-up

9 Accurate Crosses 7
26 Total Crosses 21

Discipline

9 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
José Marsà → Mathis Servais
9th Substitution
Event
Ibrahima Cissé
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
83'
Event
Jean-Kévin Duverne → Tiago Araújo
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Hatim Es-Saoubi → Daiki Hashioka
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Aimé Omgba → Max Dean
8th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Mathis Servais
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Maxim Kireev → Kerim Mrabti
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Myron van Brederode
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Tiago Araújo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Momodou Lamin Sonko → Hyun-seok Hong
4th Substitution
60'
46'
Event
Bill Antonio → Mory Konaté
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Benito Raman → Keano Vanrafelghem
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Leonardo Lopes
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
45+2'
Event
Max Dean
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
31'
30'
Event
Mory Konaté
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ibrahima Cissé → Wilfried Kanga
1st Substitution
18'
Event
Wilfried Kanga
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
8'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Gent exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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