Genk vs Sint-Truiden Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Luminus Arena Sun, 15 Mar - 12:30 PM
Pro League
Genk GNK
1 Winner 0
Sint-Truiden SIT
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 12:30 PM
Zakaria El Ouahdi - 20'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Genk 1–0 Sint-Truiden. The result saw Genk take the points. Genk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 36%–64%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Genk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Claes
N. Claes
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
R. Devillers
R. Devillers
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
S. Bourdeaud'hui
S. Bourdeaud'hui
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
L. D'hondt
L. D'hondt
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
VS
Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.05
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dender Rank: 62 W
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 66 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 73 D
Westerlo Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 W
Antwerp Rank: 70 L
Dender Rank: 62 W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 66 W
Westerlo Rank: 68 W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 73 L
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 11 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genk
43.18%
Draw
26.23%
Away Sint-Truiden
30.59%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.15
76.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genk
Sint-Truiden
Power Score
77.15
76.49
League Position
7
3
Global Rank
78
82

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genk Sint-Truiden

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Genk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.81
19.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.30
41.81
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Genk +1.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Sint-Truiden -1.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Genk
Sint-Truiden
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Genk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Genk Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Genk Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Genk
Sint-Truiden
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genk GNK Home
11 matches
Sint-Truiden SIT Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
5
Draws
5
1
Losses
5
Goals
21
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
21
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:53:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
T. Okiki Lawal
Austria
26 T. Okiki Lawal
Z. El Ouahdi
Substitution
Morocco
77 Z. El Ouahdi
J. Ndenge Kongolo
Belgium
44 J. Ndenge Kongolo
M. Smets
Belgium
6 M. Smets
J. Kayembe Ditu
Belgium
18 J. Kayembe Ditu
I. Bangoura
Guinea
21 I. Bangoura
B. Heynen
Belgium
8 (C) B. Heynen
D. Heymans
Belgium
38 D. Heymans
K. Karetsas
Substitution
Belgium
20 K. Karetsas
R. Mirisola
Substitution
Belgium
29 R. Mirisola
J. Ito
Substitution
Japan
10 J. Ito
L. Kokubo
Japan
16 L. Kokubo
T. Hata
Japan
3 T. Hata
L. Mbe Soh
France
4 L. Mbe Soh
S. Taniguchi
Japan
5 (C) S. Taniguchi
R. Vanwesemael
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
R. Ito
Substitution
Japan
13 R. Ito
A. Sissako
France
8 A. Sissako
R. Yamamoto
Substitution
Japan
6 R. Yamamoto
I. Sebaoui
Substitution
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
K. Goto
Japan
42 K. Goto
A. Muja
Substitution
Albania
7 A. Muja

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium
Luminus Arena
Capacity
24956
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nico Claes
Romain Devillers
Simon Bourdeaud'hui
Lothar D'hondt

Statistics

Possession
GNK
40%
SIT
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
13 Shots 8
41 Dangerous attacks 87
36 Possession 64
5 Corners 8
8 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

20 Successful Headers 4
15 Throwins 18
88 Ball Safe 97
12 Goal Kicks 7
17 Dribble Attempts 14
1 Assists 0
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
11 Successful Dribbles 6
4 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

104 Attacks 120
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

24 Successful Long Passes 49
81 Successful Passes Percentage 88
49 Long Passes 78
281 Successful Passes 548
349 Passes 626
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 63
9 Key Passes 8

Defensive

17 Tackles 15
10 Interceptions 13
1 Saves 3

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 3
19 Total Crosses 21

Discipline

9 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Lothar D'hondt

Starting XI ▼

26
Tobias Lawal
Tobias Lawal Goalkeeper
7.21
6
Matte Smets
Matte Smets Defender
6.93
18
Joris Kayembe
Joris Kayembe Defender
7.01
44
Josué Kongolo
Josué Kongolo Defender
7.03
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Defender
7.37
27
Ken Nkuba
Ken Nkuba
Defender80'
6.57
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen (C) Midfielder
7.19
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder
7.42
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Midfielder
6.92
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Attacker
7.42
32
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
Attacker80'
6.57
20
Konstantinos Karetsas
Konstantinos Karetsas Attacker
7.17
7
Jarne Steuckers
Jarne Steuckers
Attacker69'
6.4
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola Attacker
6.92
23
Aaron Bibout
Aaron Bibout
Attacker69'
6.72
Referee : Lothar D'hondt

Starting XI ▼

16
Leo Kokubo
Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
6.79
3
Taiga Hata
Taiga Hata Defender
6.71
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
Loïc Mbe Soh Defender
7.5
5
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi (C) Defender
6.56
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
6.52
6
Rihito Yamamoto
Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
7.16
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen
Midfielder77'
6.35
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
7.49
13
Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
6.77
77
Oumar Diouf
Oumar Diouf
Attacker77'
6.51
7
Arbnor Muja
Arbnor Muja Attacker
6.69
18
Simen Juklerød
Simen Juklerød
Defender77'
6.51
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Attacker
6.76
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker63'
6.62
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto Attacker
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tobias Lawal
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Ibrahima Bangoura
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
88'
Event
Ken Nkuba → Zakaria El Ouahdi
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg → Junya Ito
8th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Oumar Diouf → Ryotaro Ito
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Simen Juklerød → Arbnor Muja
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Ryan Merlen → Rihito Yamamoto
6th Substitution
Event
Aaron Bibout → Robin Mirisola
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Jarne Steuckers → Konstantinos Karetsas
3rd Substitution
69'
63'
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa → Ilias Sebaoui
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
20'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Genk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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