Sint-Truiden vs Cercle Brugge Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stayen Stadion Sun, 8 Mar - 6:15 PM
Pro League
Sint-Truiden SIT
2 Winner 1
Cercle Brugge CBR
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 6:15 PM
Arbnor Muja - 24'
Kaito Matsuzawa - 81'
Goal
|
Goal
Edan Diop - 57'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sint-Truiden 2–1 Cercle Brugge. The result saw Sint-Truiden take the points. Sint-Truiden showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sint-Truiden showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Van Dyck
J. Van Dyck
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
B. Verbeke
B. Verbeke
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Y. De Neve
Y. De Neve
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
M. Ledda
M. Ledda
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
VS
Cercle Brugge O. Cinel
O. Cinel
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: L
Dender Rank: W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: L
La Louvière Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dender Rank: D
Gent Rank: W
Club Brugge Rank: L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Antwerp Rank: L
Genk Rank: D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 9 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sint-Truiden
54.99%
Draw
23.09%
Away Cercle Brugge
21.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.86
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sint-Truiden
Cercle Brugge
Power Score
67.86
33.33
League Position
3
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Cercle Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sint-Truiden Cercle Brugge

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cercle Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cercle Brugge
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.00
54.23
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
54.23
30.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sint-Truiden -2.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Cercle Brugge +2.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Cercle Brugge
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cercle Brugge
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sint-Truiden Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Cercle Brugge
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sint-Truiden SIT Home
13 matches
Cercle Brugge CBR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
3
Goals
14
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
14
-8
Goal Difference
+8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:23:04+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium
Stayen Stadion
Capacity
14600
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jonas Van Dyck
Bert Verbeke
Yves De Neve
Massimiliano Ledda

Statistics

Possession
SIT
58%
CBR
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 5
66 Dangerous attacks 63
61 Possession 39
7 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 1
26 Throwins 24
20 Successful Headers 11
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
12 Dribble Attempts 20
6 Goal Kicks 3
6 Successful Dribbles 7
2 Assists 0
107 Ball Safe 85
8 Goal Attempts 11

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
105 Attacks 108

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 76
560 Passes 339
11 Key Passes 12
464 Successful Passes 259
69 Long Passes 49
40 Successful Long Passes 16
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

13 Interceptions 18
22 Tackles 19
5 Saves 5

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 6
18 Total Crosses 26

Discipline

7 Fouls 8

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Steve Ngoura
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Krys Kouassi → Oluwaseun Adewumi
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Heriberto Jurado → Hannes Van Der Bruggen
5th Substitution
85'
Event
Valy Konaté
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
77'
Event
Steve Ngoura → Lawrence Agyekum
4th Substitution
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa → Rihito Yamamoto
2nd Substitution
74'
Event
Ryan Merlen → Ilias Sebaoui
3rd Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Oumar Diakité
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Oumar Diakité → Dante Vanzeir
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Edan Diop
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Lawrence Agyekum
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Arbnor Muja
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sint-Truiden exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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