Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Joseph Mariën Sat, 7 Mar - 7:45 PM
Pro League
Union Saint-Gilloise USG
2 Winner 1
Genk GNK
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 7:45 PM
Christian Burgess - 15'
Besfort Zeneli - 52'
Goal
|
Goal
Daan Heymans - 68' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Union Saint-Gilloise 2–1 Genk. The result saw Union Saint-Gilloise take the points. Union Saint-Gilloise showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Union Saint-Gilloise showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Van Damme
K. Van Damme
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
L. Visser
L. Visser
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
R. Wyns
R. Wyns
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
T. Nijssen
T. Nijssen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Union Saint-Gilloise D. Hubert
D. Hubert
VS
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
2.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge Rank: W
OH Leuven Rank: D
Mechelen Rank: W
Cercle Brugge Rank: D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cercle Brugge Rank: D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: L
Club Brugge Rank: L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: D
Westerlo Rank: D
Antwerp Rank: L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Union Saint-Gilloise
57.68%
Draw
23.58%
Away Genk
18.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.43
45.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Union Saint-Gilloise
Genk
Power Score
71.43
45.24
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Union Saint-Gilloise Genk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Union Saint-Gilloise

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Union Saint-Gilloise ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.72
11.23
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.23
33.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Union Saint-Gilloise +1.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Genk -1.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Genk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Union Saint-Gilloise ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Union Saint-Gilloise Genk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Union Saint-Gilloise Genk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Genk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Union Saint-Gilloise USG Home
15 matches
Genk GNK Away
Match Record
9
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
9
Goals
23
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
23
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:14:54+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium
Stade Joseph Mariën
Capacity
50093
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kevin Van Damme
Lawrence Visser
Ruben Wyns
Thibaud Nijssen

Statistics

Possession
USG
46%
GNK
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 5
50 Dangerous attacks 28
43 Possession 57
5 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 8
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
2 Assists 0
10 Successful Headers 10
17 Dribble Attempts 24
33 Ball Safe 38
5 Goal Kicks 11
5 Successful Dribbles 11
28 Throwins 20
0 Injuries 1
9 Goal Attempts 1
4 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

110 Attacks 114

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 81
397 Passes 550
66 Long Passes 74
34 Successful Long Passes 34
311 Successful Passes 443
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
9 Key Passes 3

Defensive

11 Interceptions 12
18 Tackles 21
2 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 7
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ivan Pavlić → Anouar Ait El Hadj
8th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Handball / Goal Disallowed
86'
82'
Event
Aaron Bibout → Robin Mirisola
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Yaimar Medina → Joris Kayembe
7th Substitution
Event
Mateo Biondic → Mohammed Fuseini
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Rob Schoofs → Besfort Zeneli
4th Substitution
75'
69'
Event
Joris Kayembe
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Daan Heymans
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Christian Burgess
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
66'
63'
Event
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg → Yira Sor
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Ibrahima Bangoura → Konstantinos Karetsas
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Jarne Steuckers → Junya Ito
3rd Substitution
Event
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Goal disallowed
62'
Event
Guilherme Smith
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Besfort Zeneli
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
52'
Event
Kamiel Van De Perre
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Konstantinos Karetsas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Christian Burgess
Header / 1st Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Union Saint-Gilloise exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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