Stoke City vs Watford Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Bet365 Stadium Sat, 14 Mar - 3:00 PM
Championship
Stoke City STK
3 Winner 1
Watford WAT
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM
Million Manhoef - 28', 77'
Sam Gallagher - 85'
Goal
|
Goal
Nestory Irankunda - 81'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Stoke City 3–1 Watford. The result saw Stoke City take the points. Stoke City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 45%–55%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Stoke City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Doughty
L. Doughty
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
C. Brown
C. Brown
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Smith
M. Smith
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
R. Joyce
R. Joyce
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
VS
Watford E. Still
E. Still
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.58
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: 73 D
Middlesbrough Rank: 74 L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 D
Norwich City Rank: 71 W
Hull City Rank: 72 W
Sheffield United Rank: 72 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 66 D
Portsmouth Rank: 67 D
Millwall Rank: 73 L
Birmingham City Rank: 73 W
Norwich City Rank: 71 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 5 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Stoke City
35.66%
Draw
28.53%
Away Watford
35.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.38
66.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Stoke City
Watford
Power Score
67.38
66.45
League Position
13
10
Global Rank
235
261

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Watford — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Stoke City Watford

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Stoke City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Watford

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Stoke City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Watford
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.56
32.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.45
47.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Stoke City +1.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Watford -1.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Stoke City
Watford
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Stoke City
vs
Watford
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Stoke City Watford
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Stoke City Watford
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Stoke City
Watford
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Stoke City STK Home
9 matches
Watford WAT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
5
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:09:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
T. Simkim
England
25 T. Simkim
J. Tchamadeu
Cameroon
22 J. Tchamadeu
M. Talovierov
Ukraine
40 M. Talovierov
A. Phillips
England
26 A. Phillips
E. Bocat
Substitution
France
17 E. Bocat
S. Nzonzi
Substitution
France
15 (C) S. Nzonzi
T. Rigo
Slovakia
19 T. Rigo
M. Manhoef
Substitution
Netherlands
42 M. Manhoef
J. Bae
Substitution
South Korea
10 J. Bae
S. Thomas
Wales
7 S. Thomas
M. Smit
Substitution
Netherlands
49 M. Smit
E. Selvik
Norway
1 E. Selvik
M. Bola
England
16 M. Bola
S. Mfuni
Substitution
England
21 S. Mfuni
S. Goglichidze
Georgia
3 S. Goglichidze
J. Abankwah
Republic of Ireland
25 J. Abankwah
G. Chakvetadze
Georgia
8 G. Chakvetadze
N. Mendy
Substitution
Senegal
23 N. Mendy
I. Louza
Substitution
Morocco
10 (C) I. Louza
T. Ince
Substitution
England
7 T. Ince
V. Semedo Moura Sousa
Substitution
Portugal
18 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
E. Kayembe
DR Congo
39 E. Kayembe

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Bet365 Stadium
Capacity
30089
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Leigh Doughty
Connor Brown
Matthew Smith
Ross Joyce

Statistics

Possession
STK
46%
WAT
54%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 4
12 Shots 4
48 Dangerous attacks 57
45 Possession 55
6 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 11
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Substitutions 5
25 Successful Headers 17
20 Throwins 20
2 Assists 1
16 Goal Attempts 11
9 Dribble Attempts 10
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
7 Goal Kicks 6
63 Ball Safe 64
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

75 Attacks 101
1 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

14 Key Passes 9
51 Long Passes 58
19 Successful Long Passes 23
71 Successful Passes Percentage 78
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
318 Passes 391
227 Successful Passes 306

Defensive

11 Interceptions 6
11 Tackles 13
3 Saves 9

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 3
20 Total Crosses 27

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Leigh Doughty

Starting XI ▼

25
Tommy Simkin
Tommy Simkin Goalkeeper
6.72
17
Eric-Junior Bocat
Eric-Junior Bocat Defender
7.17
23
Ben Gibson
Ben Gibson
Defender70'
6.19
22
Junior Tchamadeu
Junior Tchamadeu Defender
6.62
26
Ashley Phillips
Ashley Phillips Defender
6.74
40
Maksym Taloverov
Maksym Taloverov Defender
6.95
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Midfielder
7.86
10
Jun-ho Bae
Jun-ho Bae Midfielder
6.35
4
Ben Pearson
Ben Pearson
Midfielder79'
6.44
15
Steven​ N'Zonzi
Steven​ N'Zonzi (C) Midfielder
6.95
12
Tatsuki Seko
Tatsuki Seko
Midfielder83'
6.58
19
Tomas Rigo
Tomas Rigo Midfielder
7.49
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef Midfielder
2
8.88
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Attacker79'
6.4
49
Milan Smit
Milan Smit Attacker
6.96
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher
Attacker71'
7.54
Referee : Leigh Doughty

Starting XI ▼

1
Egil Selvik
Egil Selvik Goalkeeper
8.09
3
Saba Goglichidze
Saba Goglichidze Defender
6.22
16
Marc Bola
Marc Bola Defender
6.67
21
Stephen Mfuni
Stephen Mfuni Defender
6.55
15
Edoardo Bove
Edoardo Bove
Midfielder86'
25
James Abankwah
James Abankwah Defender
6.03
7
Tom Ince
Tom Ince Midfielder
5.77
—
Tom Ince
71'
8
Giorgi Chakvetadze
Giorgi Chakvetadze Midfielder
7.56
10
Imrân Louza
Imrân Louza (C) Midfielder
6.45
9
Luca Kjerrumgaard
Luca Kjerrumgaard
Attacker86'
23
Nampalys Mendy
Nampalys Mendy Midfielder
6.95
17
Pierre Ekwah
Pierre Ekwah
Midfielder71'
6.33
18
Vivaldo Semedo
Vivaldo Semedo Attacker
6.51
66
Nestory Irankunda
Nestory Irankunda
Attacker62'
6.97
39
Edo Kayembe
Edo Kayembe Attacker
7

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Nestory Irankunda
6th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Edoardo Bove → Stephen Mfuni
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Luca Kjerrumgaard → Imrân Louza
10th Substitution
Event
Sam Gallagher
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
85'
Event
Tatsuki Seko → Steven​ N'Zonzi
8th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Nestory Irankunda
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi → Million Manhoef
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Ben Pearson → Jun-ho Bae
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Million Manhoef
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
Event
Tommy Simkin
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Sam Gallagher → Milan Smit
4th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Nampalys Mendy → Tom Ince
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Pierre Ekwah → Nampalys Mendy
3rd Substitution
Event
Ben Gibson → Eric-Junior Bocat
2nd Substitution
70'
62'
Event
Nestory Irankunda → Vivaldo Semedo
1st Substitution
Event
Maksym Taloverov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
60'
51'
Event
Nampalys Mendy
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Sorba Thomas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
Event
Million Manhoef
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
28'
Event
Tomas Rigo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Tomás Rigo from Stoke City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Egil Selvik of Watford makes a fantastic save, diving to the top left corner. The assist came from Jesurun Rak-Sakyi.
90
Update Update
Nestory Irankunda from Watford committed a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nestory Irankunda from Watford has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
James Abankwah from Watford committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Tomás Rigo allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Stoke City 3, Watford 1.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City earned a free kick on the left flank.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Stoke City 3, Watford 1.
90
Update Update
That's a wrap! The match has concluded with Stoke City emerging victorious, defeating Watford with a score of 3-1.
89
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
89
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Tommy Simkin from Stoke City.
88
Update Update
Pierre Ekwah from Watford earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
88
Update Update
Sam Gallagher from Stoke City committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Pierre Ekwah from Watford earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Tommy Simkin allowed the ball to go out.
87
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it went wide.
86
Update Update
Ben Gibson commits a foul for Stoke City.
86
Update Update
Nestory Irankunda from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Substitution for Watford: Luca Kjerrumgaard replaces Imrân Louza.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Edoardo Bove replaces Stephen Mfuni.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Stoke City leads Watford 3-1. Sam Gallagher scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, sending the ball into the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Sorba Thomas.
80
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Stoke City leads Watford 2-1. Nestory Irankunda from Watford scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area after a swift counterattack.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Tatsuki Seko is coming on to replace Steven Nzonzi.
79
Update Update
James Abankwah from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
79
Update Update
Sam Gallagher from Stoke City committed a foul.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Ben Pearson is coming on to replace Bae Jun-Ho.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Substitution for Stoke City: Jesurun Rak-Sakyi replaces Million Manhoef.
74
Corner Corner
Goal! Stoke City leads Watford 2-0. Million Manhoef scores for Stoke City with a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, sending the ball into the bottom left corner after a quick counterattack.
73
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Sam Gallagher from Stoke City takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
73
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive play underway. Million Manhoef from Stoke City takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
72
Update Update
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Pierre Ekwah comes on to replace Nampalys Mendy.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tommy Simkin from Stoke City has been shown a yellow card.
71
Update Update
Saba Goglichidze from Watford committed a foul.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Sam Gallagher replaces Milan Smit.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Jonathan Lawson replaces Tom Ince.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Ben Gibson comes on to replace Eric-Junior Bocat.
67
Update Update
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Update Update
Offside call against Stoke City. Junior Tchamadeu has been flagged for being in an offside position.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Steven Nzonzi of Stoke City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Milan Smit.
66
Update Update
Imrân Louza from Watford committed a foul.
63
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Million Manhoef of Stoke City takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Egil Selvik from Watford makes a great save, pushing the ball to the right corner. The assist comes from Eric-Junior Bocat.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Nestory Irankunda replaces Vivaldo Semedo.
61
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Marc Bola from Watford took a left-footed shot from over 35 yards out following a corner, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Maksym Talovierov allowed the ball to go out.
60
Update Update
Maksym Talovierov from Stoke City committed a foul.
60
Update Update
Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maksym Talovierov from Stoke City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
59
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Milan Smit of Stoke City attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Tomás Rigo, who delivered a cross.
58
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Stephen Mfuni from Watford attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner, but it sailed over the goal.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Junior Tchamadeu allowed the ball to go out.
56
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
54
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Tomás Rigo from Stoke City.
53
Update Update
The attempt is denied. Imrân Louza from Watford takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Edo Kayembe.
52
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Ashley Phillips from Stoke City heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
51
Update Update
Million Manhoef of Stoke City has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nampalys Mendy of Watford has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
51
Update Update
Nampalys Mendy from Watford committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Sorba Thomas committed a foul on a Stoke City player.
50
Update Update
James Abankwah from Watford earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Maksym Talovierov allowed the ball to go out.
49
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Stephen Mfuni from Watford had a header from close range that went wide. The cross came from Giorgi Chakvetadze following a corner kick.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Maksym Talovierov allowed the ball to go out.
46
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Edo Kayembe from Watford takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle and long range on the left side, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Stoke City 1, Watford 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Tomás Rigo from Stoke City fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's intercepted.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Stoke City leading Watford 1-0.
45
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Maksym Talovierov from Stoke City fired a left-footed shot from just a few meters out, but it went narrowly wide to the left. The assist came from Sorba Thomas, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after James Abankwah allowed the ball to go out of play.
44
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Stoke City after a foul by James Abankwah.
41
Update Update
Nampalys Mendy from Watford was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
41
Update Update
Imrân Louza from Watford committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Nampalys Mendy of Watford earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Million Manhoef of Stoke City.
41
Update Update
Tomás Rigo from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
38
Update Update
Offside call against Stoke City. Eric-Junior Bocat has been flagged for being offside.
37
Update Update
Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Junior Tchamadeu from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
34
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive effort unfolds as Tomás Rigo from Stoke City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly saved by Egil Selvik of Watford, who manages to reach the ball at the top center of the goal. The assist comes from Junior Tchamadeu.
33
Update Update
Tom Ince from Watford committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Nampalys Mendy from Watford committed a foul.
31
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Imrân Louza from Watford fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Stephen Mfuni.
31
Update Update
Bae Jun-Ho from Stoke City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Million Manhoef from Stoke City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Egil Selvik, the Watford goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Bae Jun-Ho.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Stoke City takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Watford. Million Manhoef scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, sending the ball into the top left corner of the net. The assist comes from Milan Smit.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Egil Selvik allowed the ball to go out.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after a play that resulted in Egil Selvik giving up possession.
22
Update Update
Sorba Thomas committed a foul on a player from Stoke City.
22
Update Update
Saba Goglichidze from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Imrân Louza from Watford took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from James Abankwah after a quick counterattack.
20
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Steven Nzonzi from Stoke City attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after a deflection off Stephen Mfuni.
18
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
17
Update Update
Tomás Rigo from Stoke City committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomás Rigo from Stoke City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
15
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Watford! Tom Ince takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it's expertly stopped by the goalkeeper, Tommy Simkin, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Vivaldo Semedo.
15
Attempt Attempt
Unsuccessful opportunity. Saba Goglichidze from Watford attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area...
14
Update Update
Ashley Phillips from Stoke City committed a foul.
14
Update Update
Edo Kayembe from Watford earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
13
Update Update
Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Million Manhoef from Stoke City.
11
Update Update
Edo Kayembe from Watford committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Eric-Junior Bocat of Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tom Ince from Watford takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's deflected away. The setup came from Marc Bola, who delivered a cross.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Edo Kayembe from Watford takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the right.
9
Update Update
Vivaldo Semedo from Watford committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
7
Corner Corner
Stoke City has been awarded a corner kick after Saba Goglichidze allowed the ball to go out of play.
7
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and wide to the left following a corner kick.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after a foul by Marc Bola.
4
Update Update
James Abankwah from Watford committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
4
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Bae Jun-Ho from Stoke City fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets intercepted.
1
Attempt Attempt
Attempt denied. Million Manhoef from Stoke City took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Milan Smit.
1
Update Update
Edo Kayembe from Watford committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Maksym Talovierov from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Stoke City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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