Oxford United vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Kassam Stadium Wed, 11 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Oxford United OXF
1 Winner 0
Blackburn Rovers BBR
Full Time Wed, 11 Mar 7:45 PM
Jamie Paul Donley - 34'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Oxford United securing a narrow 1-0 victory over Blackburn Rovers. Oxford established their lead early, holding a 1-0 advantage at half-time, and successfully defended that margin until the final whistle. Heading into the fixture, pre-match market expectations suggested an incredibly tight contest. Oxford United had a 34.5% implied probability of winning, compared to a 34% chance for Blackburn Rovers and a 31.6% likelihood of a draw. Because the probabilities were so closely distributed, the result was ultimately deemed aligned with the pre-match market. However, Oxford United’s win still represents a significant deviation level of 65.5% against the broader field of possible outcomes. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the final score was consistent with the actual chances created. However, the possession metrics highlight a stark contrast in play styles. Blackburn Rovers heavily dominated the ball with 68% possession, while Oxford United made the most of their limited 32% share. The underlying efficiency shift remained in line with expectations, as Oxford capitalized on their brief attacking spells. Finally, the match concluded cleanly without any red cards issued to alter the tactical landscape.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Oxford United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Mainwaring
J. Mainwaring
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
R. Madley
R. Madley
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
R. Hyde
R. Hyde
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
D. Webb
D. Webb
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Oxford United M. Bloomfield
M. Bloomfield
VS
Blackburn Rovers M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leicester City Rank: 67 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 D
Bristol City Rank: 71 D
Ipswich Town Rank: 76 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Southampton Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Ipswich Town Rank: 76 L
Charlton Athletic Rank: 68 D
Wrexham Rank: 73 L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 55 D
Middlesbrough Rank: 75 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Oxford United
34.45%
Draw
31.61%
Away Blackburn Rovers
33.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.95
64.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Oxford United
Blackburn Rovers
Power Score
63.95
64.48
League Position
22
20
Global Rank
327
308

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Oxford United — Opponent-weighted form score
Blackburn Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Oxford United Blackburn Rovers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Oxford United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Blackburn Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Oxford United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blackburn Rovers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.50
18.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.82
52.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Oxford United +3.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Blackburn Rovers -3.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Oxford United
Blackburn Rovers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Oxford United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blackburn Rovers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Oxford United Blackburn Rovers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Oxford United Blackburn Rovers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Oxford United
Blackburn Rovers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Oxford United OXF Home
3 matches
Blackburn Rovers BBR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-12T00:04:28+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 11, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
The Kassam Stadium
Capacity
12500
Attendance
9993
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
James Mainwaring
Robert Madley
Robert Hyde
David Webb

Statistics

Possession
OXF
38%
BBR
62%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 3
56 Dangerous attacks 56
32 Possession 68
6 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 3
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

32 Throwins 24
19 Dribble Attempts 18
8 Successful Dribbles 9
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
24 Successful Headers 38
7 Goal Kicks 11
5 Substitutions 4
74 Ball Safe 86
13 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

89 Attacks 116
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

61 Successful Passes Percentage 82
232 Passes 516
142 Successful Passes 421
21 Successful Long Passes 28
9 Key Passes 4
78 Long Passes 70
27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

7 Interceptions 7
13 Tackles 21
2 Saves 6
57 Duels Won 72

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 23
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 4

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Hayden Carter
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mark Harris → Stanley Mills
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Jamie Carson McDonnell → Jamie Paul Donley
9th Substitution
87'
79'
Event
Sidnei Tavares → Adam Forshaw
7th Substitution
Event
Brodie Gilmore Spencer → Myles Peart-Harris
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Will Vaulks → Yunus Konak
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Nik Prelec → Will Lankshear
4th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Oladapo Afolayan → Dion De Neve
2nd Substitution
73'
Event
Todd Cantwell → Mathias Jørgensen
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Yuki Ohashi → Moussa Baradji
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jamie Paul Donley
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
34'
27'
Event
Sean McLoughlin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Oxford United 1, Blackburn Rovers 0.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Michal Helik from Oxford United attempted a right-footed shot from inside the penalty area, but it went wide.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Blackburn Rovers. Sean McLoughlin has been caught in an offside position.
89
Update Update
Mark Harris from Oxford United was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hayden Carter from Blackburn Rovers has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
89
Update Update
Hayden Carter of Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Jamie McDonnell comes on to replace Jamie Donley.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Mark Harris is coming on to replace Stanley Mills.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Jamie McDonnell comes on to replace Jamie Donley.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Mark Harris comes on to replace Stanley Mills.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Mark Harris is coming on to replace Stanley Mills.
85
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Stanley Mills allowed the ball to go out of play.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Sam Long allowed the ball to go out.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Sam Long allowed the ball to go out.
85
Update Update
Sidnei Tavares from Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
83
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ryan Alebiosu from Blackburn Rovers takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
81
Update Update
Nik Prelec from Oxford United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Sidnei Tavares from Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Sidnei Tavares comes on to replace Adam Forshaw.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Will Vaulks comes on to replace Yunus Konak.
78
Update Update
Oladapo Afolayan from Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Brodie Spencer replaces Myles Peart-Harris.
78
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
76
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Oladapo Afolayan from Blackburn Rovers.
74
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Oladapo Afolayan comes on to replace Dion De Neve.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Nik Prelec is coming on to replace Will Lankshear.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Todd Cantwell is coming on to replace Mathias Jørgensen.
72
Update Update
Offside call against Blackburn Rovers. Mathias Jørgensen has been caught offside.
69
Update Update
Ryan Alebiosu commits a foul for Blackburn Rovers.
69
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Eiran Cashin allowed the ball to go out.
66
Update Update
Ryan Alebiosu commits a foul against Blackburn Rovers.
66
Update Update
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
64
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Taylor Gardner-Hickman committed a foul against Blackburn Rovers.
62
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Yuki Ohashi is coming on to replace Moussa Baradji.
59
Update Update
Moussa Baradji from Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
59
Update Update
Yunus Konak from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
Stanley Mills committed a foul against Oxford United.
58
Update Update
Dion De Neve from Blackburn Rovers earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
56
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Balázs Tóth of Blackburn Rovers makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Yunus Konak.
56
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Ciaron Brown of Oxford United heads the ball from close range but sends it over the bar. The chance was set up by Cameron Brannagan, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after a deflection off Hayden Carter.
54
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push from Blackburn Rovers as Moussa Baradji takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Jamie Cumming of Oxford United makes a great save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal.
51
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move is underway. Will Lankshear from Oxford United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Balázs Tóth of Blackburn Rovers makes a save in the top right corner. The assist came from Myles Peart-Harris.
47
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Eiran Cashin of Blackburn Rovers heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Dion De Neve, who delivered a cross.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Jack Currie allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the scoreline reading Oxford United 1, Blackburn Rovers 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Oxford United leading Blackburn Rovers 1-0.
44
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Moussa Baradji of Blackburn Rovers took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Eiran Cashin, who headed the ball after a corner kick.
44
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Dion De Neve from Blackburn Rovers attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it went wide to the left.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Sam Long allowed the ball to go out.
41
Update Update
Offside call against Blackburn Rovers. Mathias Jørgensen has been caught in an offside position.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Oxford United takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Blackburn Rovers. Jamie Donley scores for Oxford United, striking the ball with his right foot from the center of the penalty area into the bottom right corner.
34
Update Update
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Myles Peart-Harris of Oxford United heads the ball from the middle of the box, but Balázs Tóth, the goalkeeper for Blackburn Rovers, makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Stanley Mills, who delivered a cross into the area.
33
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity goes begging. Jamie Donley from Oxford United attempted a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Jack Currie, who delivered a cross.
31
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Michal Helik from Oxford United attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area, but Balázs Tóth, the goalkeeper for Blackburn Rovers, makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Jack Currie, who delivered a cross.
30
Update Update
Jamie Donley from Oxford United was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Jamie Donley of Oxford United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Adam Forshaw of Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
29
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United takes a shot from outside the penalty area with his right foot, but it's intercepted and blocked.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after a deflection off Hayden Carter.
27
Update Update
Sean McLoughlin of Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sean McLoughlin of Blackburn Rovers has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
24
Update Update
Another offensive push. Michal Helik from Oxford United heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but the attempt is stopped.
23
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Stanley Mills of Oxford United takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Balázs Tóth of Blackburn Rovers makes a save, diving to the right corner. The assist comes from Cameron Brannagan.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Ryan Alebiosu allowed the ball to go out.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Eiran Cashin allowed the ball to go out.
17
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Stanley Mills of Oxford United fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Will Lankshear.
17
Update Update
Adam Forshaw from Blackburn Rovers earned a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Offside call against Blackburn Rovers. Ryan Alebiosu has been caught offside.
14
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United committed a foul.
14
Update Update
Sean McLoughlin from Blackburn Rovers earned a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Jamie Donley from Oxford United has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
10
Update Update
Eiran Cashin committed a foul against Blackburn Rovers.
10
Update Update
Taylor Gardner-Hickman committed a foul against Blackburn Rovers.
8
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Will Lankshear from Oxford United took a right-footed shot from close range but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Stanley Mills.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Oxford United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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