Portsmouth vs Swansea City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Fratton Park Tue, 10 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Portsmouth PTM
1 Winner 2
Swansea City SWA
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 7:45 PM
Jacob Brown - 64'
Goal
|
Goal
Ethan Galbraith - 26'
Josh Key - 39'

CONTEXT

The match between Portsmouth and Swansea City has finished, with Swansea City securing a 2-1 away victory. The visitors laid the foundation for their win early, taking a 2-0 lead into the halftime break before Portsmouth managed a second-half consolation goal. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. The betting market initially favored the home side with a 40.4% win probability, compared to just 30.5% for Swansea City and 29.1% for a draw. Consequently, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market, resulting in a 69.5% deviation percentage as Swansea City defied the early odds. Despite the defeat, Portsmouth controlled the bulk of the play, holding 59% possession to Swansea's 41%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning alignment between the final score and underlying xG could not be assessed. The match was cleanly contested with no red cards issued to either side, meaning discipline did not skew the flow of the game. Ultimately, the post-match efficiency shifts remained in line with the actual outcome, allowing Swansea City to leave with all three points despite operating without the majority of the ball.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Swansea City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Ward
G. Ward
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.34
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
G. Kane
G. Kane
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.34
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
N. Lugg
N. Lugg
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.34
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
F. Hallam
F. Hallam
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.34
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
VS
Swansea City V. Emanuel Soares Matos
V. Emanuel Soares Matos
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: W
Southampton Rank: D
Watford Rank: D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Bristol City Rank: L
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: W
Coventry City Rank: L
Wrexham Rank: W
Stoke City Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portsmouth
40.36%
Draw
29.11%
Away Swansea City
30.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.52
23.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portsmouth
Swansea City
Power Score
21.52
23.61
League Position
19
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portsmouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Swansea City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portsmouth Swansea City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Portsmouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Swansea City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Swansea City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.32
22.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.07
19.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Portsmouth -0.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Swansea City +0.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Swansea City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Swansea City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portsmouth Swansea City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portsmouth Swansea City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Swansea City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portsmouth PTM Home
3 matches
Swansea City SWA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
6
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-11T00:04:28+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 10, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Fratton Park
Capacity
20688
Attendance
18508
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gavin Ward
Graham Kane
Nigel Lugg
Farai Hallam

Statistics

Possession
PTM
57%
SWA
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 5
48 Dangerous attacks 21
59 Possession 41
6 Corners 0
10 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
6 Goal Attempts 7
94 Ball Safe 93
0 Injuries 1
10 Dribble Attempts 12
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
5 Successful Dribbles 5
35 Throwins 29
27 Successful Headers 12
7 Goal Kicks 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
118 Attacks 86

Possession

72 Successful Passes Percentage 69
469 Passes 339
87 Long Passes 77
31 Successful Long Passes 26
6 Key Passes 7
337 Successful Passes 234
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34

Defensive

55 Duels Won 41
3 Interceptions 14
15 Tackles 13
1 Saves 3

Build-up

33 Total Crosses 3
7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

9 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Harvey Blair → Ebou Adams
9th Substitution
88'
Event
John Swift → Madiodio Dia
8th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Malick Yalcouyé → Ji-sung Eom
7th Substitution
Event
Adrian Segecic → Jacob Brown
6th Substitution
76'
71'
Event
Joel Ward
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Marko Stamenić → Gonçalo Franco
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Joel Ward → Josh Key
5th Substitution
Event
Madiodio Dia
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
4th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Jacob Brown
Header / 3rd Goal
64'
59'
Event
Melker Widell → Ethan Galbraith
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Liam Cullen → Zan Vipotnik
2nd Substitution
Event
Conor Chaplin → Millenic Alli
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Josh Key
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
33'
Event
Zan Vipotnik
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'
Event
Ethan Galbraith
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Zak Swanson from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Portsmouth 1, Swansea City 2.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after a foul by Josh Tymon.
90
Update Update
Connor Ogilvie from Portsmouth was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds. John Swift of Portsmouth heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box, but it's expertly saved by goalkeeper Lawrence Vigouroux, positioned centrally in the goal. The assist comes from Adrian Segecic, who delivered a precise cross.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ronald - Swansea City.
90
Update Update
A new offensive play unfolds as Zak Swanson from Portsmouth attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it's expertly stopped by Lawrence Vigouroux, the goalkeeper for Swansea City, who is positioned centrally in the goal.
89
Update Update
Zak Swanson from Portsmouth was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
89
Update Update
Ben Cabango from Swansea City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Ronald committed a foul on a Swansea City player.
89
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth committed a foul.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Harvey Blair comes on to replace Ebou Adams.
87
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Terry Devlin from Portsmouth attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area following a corner kick.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Cameron Burgess allowed the ball to go out.
84
Update Update
Offside call against Swansea City. Liam Cullen has been caught offside.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: John Swift comes on to replace Madiodio Dia.
83
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Joel Ward from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Malick Yalcouyé comes on to replace Eom Ji-Sung.
82
Update Update
Offside call against Portsmouth. Adrian Segecic has been caught in an offside position.
81
Update Update
Ben Cabango from Swansea City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth committed a foul.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Adrian Segecic is coming on to replace Jacob Brown.
73
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth had a great opportunity but failed to convert, heading the ball from the center of the penalty area.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joel Ward from Swansea City has been shown a yellow card.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Joel Ward replaces Joshua Key.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Marko Stamenic replaces Gonçalo Franco.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Madiodio Dia from Portsmouth has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
69
Update Update
Melker Widell from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
69
Update Update
Madiodio Dia from Portsmouth committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth committed a foul.
67
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Colby Bishop from Portsmouth attempted a left-footed strike from within the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side.
67
Update Update
Ronald from Swansea City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Portsmouth 1, Swansea City 2. Jacob Brown scores for Portsmouth with a header from close range, finding the center of the net. The assist comes from Zak Swanson, who delivered a precise cross.
62
Update Update
Offside call against Portsmouth. Gustavo Caballero is caught in an offside position.
62
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City commits a handball.
59
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Melker Widell is coming on to replace Ethan Galbraith.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Liam Cullen comes on to replace Zan Vipotnik due to an injury.
58
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Ronald - Swansea City.
58
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Ronald - Swansea City.
57
Update Update
Zak Swanson from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Cameron Burgess allowed the ball to go out.
54
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Ethan Galbraith of Swansea City attempted a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but failed to hit the target. The assist came from Zan Vipotnik.
53
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from over 35 yards out, but Nicolas Schmid of Portsmouth makes a great save, pushing the ball away to the top left corner.
51
Attempt Attempt
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets deflected. The assist came from Jacob Brown, who set him up with a header.
49
Update Update
Offside call against Swansea City. Eom Ji-Sung has been flagged for being in an offside position.
46
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Cameron Burgess from Swansea City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Portsmouth trailing 0-2 against Swansea City.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Conor Chaplin comes on to replace Millenic Alli.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Conor Chaplin is coming on to replace Millenic Alli.
41
Update Update
Offside call against Swansea City. Gonçalo Franco has been flagged for being in an offside position.
41
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
41
Update Update
Joshua Key commits a foul against Swansea City.
40
Update Update
Jacob Brown from Portsmouth committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Jay Fulton from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Swansea City leads Portsmouth 2-0. Joshua Key scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the bottom left corner of the net. The assist comes from Ronald.
38
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after a play by Cameron Burgess results in a defensive error.
37
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Ebou Adams from Portsmouth had a shot from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Zak Swanson, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
37
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Jay Fulton from Swansea City.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Eom Ji-Sung allowed the ball to go out.
33
Update Update
Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Madiodio Dia from Portsmouth earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Zan Vipotnik of Swansea City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
31
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Josh Tymon of Swansea City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Joshua Key.
30
Update Update
Zak Swanson from Portsmouth committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Ronald from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth earned a free kick in an offensive position.
29
Update Update
Jay Fulton from Swansea City committed a foul.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Swansea City takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Portsmouth. Ethan Galbraith found the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, placing it perfectly into the right corner. The assist came from Josh Tymon.
26
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Josh Tymon from Swansea City takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Eom Ji-Sung.
23
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Ethan Galbraith from Swansea City committed a foul.
18
Corner Corner
Jacob Brown from Portsmouth strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from the center of the penalty area following a corner kick.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Josh Tymon allowed the ball to go out.
17
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City committed a foul.
13
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth committed a foul.
6
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Zan Vipotnik of Swansea City attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Josh Tymon, who delivered a cross.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Eom Ji-Sung allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Swansea City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews