Hull City vs Millwall Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
MKM Stadium Sun, 8 Mar - 12:02 AM
Championship
Hull City HUL
1 Winner 3
Millwall MLW
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 12:02 AM
Joe Gelhardt - 18'
Goal
|
Goal
Jake Cooper - 14'
Mihailo Ivanovic - 70'
Josh Coburn - 78'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Hull City 1–3 Millwall. The result saw Millwall take the points. Millwall showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Millwall showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Webb
D. Webb
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Backhouse
A. Backhouse
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Venamore
L. Venamore
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Woodward
R. Woodward
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
VS
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.74
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: W
Southampton Rank: W
Stoke City Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Watford Rank: W
Swansea City Rank: W
Southampton Rank: D
Bristol City Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hull City
31.31%
Draw
28.59%
Away Millwall
40.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.56
60.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hull City
Millwall
Power Score
55.56
60.19
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hull City Millwall

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hull City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Millwall

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hull City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Millwall
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.86
24.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.89
47.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hull City +2.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Millwall -2.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hull City
Millwall
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hull City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Millwall
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hull City Millwall
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hull City Millwall
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hull City
Millwall
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hull City HUL Home
9 matches
Millwall MLW Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
5
Goals
11
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
11
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:02:25+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 12:02 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
MKM Stadium
Capacity
25586
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
David Webb
Anthony Backhouse
Lee Venamore
Richard Woodward

Statistics

Possession
HUL
57%
MLW
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 2
76 Dangerous attacks 39
56 Possession 44
5 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

30 Throwins 15
10 Goal Kicks 8
22 Successful Dribbles 6
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
32 Dribble Attempts 18
26 Successful Headers 29
1 Assists 2
2 Hit Woodwork 0
8 Goal Attempts 1
37 Ball Safe 31
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

141 Attacks 84
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

291 Successful Passes 230
411 Passes 330
76 Long Passes 76
71 Successful Passes Percentage 70
21 Key Passes 6
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
26 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

13 Interceptions 16
16 Tackles 16
1 Saves 4

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 18
8 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

8 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Cathal McCarthy → Lewie Coyle
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Toby Collyer → Regan Slater
9th Substitution
90'
84'
Event
Thierno Ballo → Macaulay Langstaff
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Will Smallbone → Josh Coburn
7th Substitution
Event
Kieran Dowell → Liam Millar
6th Substitution
81'
78'
Event
Josh Coburn
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
76'
Event
Billy Mitchell
6th Yellowcard
Event
Charlie Hughes
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Lewis Koumas → Kyle Joseph
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Amir Hadziahmetovic → John Lundstram
4th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Mihailo Ivanovic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
62'
Event
Mihailo Ivanovic → Alfie Doughty
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Jake Cooper
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
54'
Event
Luke Cundle
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Alfie Doughty → Zak Sturge
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Luke Cundle → Tom Watson
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Tom Watson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
John Lundstram
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
Event
Joe Gelhardt
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
18'
14'
Event
Jake Cooper
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Joe Gelhardt from Hull City attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Toby Collyer.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Hull City 1, Millwall 3.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Femi Azeez from Millwall attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Will Smallbone.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Femi Azeez.
90
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Cathal McCarthy of Hull City heads the ball from close range, but it’s blocked. The cross was delivered by Amir Hadziahmetovic.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Camiel Neghli allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Cathal McCarthy replaces Lewie Coyle.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Toby Collyer comes on to replace Regan Slater.
90
Update Update
Lewis Koumas from Hull City earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Update Update
Dan McNamara from Millwall committed a foul.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Thierno Ballo allowed the ball to go out.
89
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kieran Dowell from Hull City takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Lewis Koumas.
88
Update Update
Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Cody Drameh from Hull City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Dan McNamara allowed the ball to go out.
86
Update Update
Amir Hadziahmetovic from Hull City committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Luke Cundle from Millwall earned a free kick in an offensive position.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Thierno Ballo is coming on to replace Macaulay Langstaff.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Will Smallbone comes on to replace Josh Coburn.
82
Update Update
Macaulay Langstaff from Millwall committed a foul.
82
Update Update
Cody Drameh from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Kieran Dowell comes on to replace Liam Millar.
81
Attempt Attempt
Liam Millar from Hull City attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Lewie Coyle.
79
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Joe Gelhardt from Hull City heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but Anthony Patterson of Millwall makes a save in the left corner. The assist came from Cody Drameh, who delivered a cross.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hull City 1, Millwall 3. Josh Coburn from Millwall fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area into the bottom left corner.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Billy Mitchell from Millwall has been shown a yellow card.
75
Update Update
Billy Mitchell from Millwall committed a foul.
75
Update Update
Amir Hadziahmetovic from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall earned a free kick on the right flank.
74
Update Update
Charlie Hughes from Hull City committed a foul.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Charlie Hughes from Hull City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
74
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Femi Azeez from Millwall takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick, but it sails over the bar.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Amir Hadziahmetovic is coming on to replace John Lundstram.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Lewis Koumas replaces Kyle Joseph.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hull City 1, Millwall 2. Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall scores with a right-footed shot from close range.
68
Update Update
Charlie Hughes from Hull City committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
67
Update Update
Lewie Coyle from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Femi Azeez from Millwall committed a foul.
65
Attempt Attempt
A shot was deflected. Joe Gelhardt from Hull City attempted a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Liam Millar.
64
Update Update
Josh Coburn committed a foul against Millwall.
64
Update Update
Charlie Hughes from Hull City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Mihailo Ivanovic replaces Alfie Doughty due to an injury.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Mihailo Ivanovic replaces Alfie Doughty due to an injury.
59
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Alfie Doughty from Millwall.
57
Update Update
Joe Gelhardt from Hull City earned a free kick on the right flank.
57
Update Update
Joe Gelhardt from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jake Cooper from Millwall has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Liam Millar from Hull City takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Oliver McBurnie, who delivered a cross.
54
Update Update
Liam Millar from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luke Cundle from Millwall has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
54
Update Update
Liam Millar from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
53
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Oliver McBurnie from Hull City fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Regan Slater from Hull City had a shot from the center of the box with his right foot, but it was blocked. The assist came from Oliver McBurnie.
52
Update Update
Oliver McBurnie from Hull City has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
52
Update Update
Tristan Crama from Millwall committed a foul.
51
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Oliver McBurnie of Hull City attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The cross was delivered by Liam Millar.
45
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Regan Slater from Hull City takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it is stopped by the goalkeeper, Anthony Patterson of Millwall, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Liam Millar.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Zak Sturge from Millwall fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Femi Azeez.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Hull City and Millwall.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Luke Cundle comes on to replace Tom Watson.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Alfie Doughty comes on to replace Zak Sturge.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 1-1 between Hull City and Millwall.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Regan Slater allowed the ball to go out.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Dan McNamara allowed the ball to go out.
43
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Semi Ajayi from Hull City took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Kyle Joseph following a corner kick.
42
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Josh Coburn from Millwall attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went over the bar and to the left. The assist came from Femi Azeez, who delivered a cross.
41
Update Update
Lewie Coyle from Hull City committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Femi Azeez from Millwall was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
40
Update Update
Charlie Hughes from Hull City heads the ball and strikes the crossbar from the center of the penalty area, following a cross from Regan Slater.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tom Watson from Millwall has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
39
Update Update
Tom Watson from Millwall committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Kyle Joseph from Hull City earned a free kick on the right flank.
38
Update Update
Semi Ajayi from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Liam Millar from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Dan McNamara from Millwall committed a foul.
37
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Kyle Joseph from Hull City takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Anthony Patterson, the Millwall goalkeeper, makes a crucial save right in the middle of the goal. The assist for this attempt comes from Cody Drameh.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after a deflection off Charlie Hughes.
33
Update Update
Lewie Coyle from Hull City earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
33
Update Update
Femi Azeez from Millwall committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Macaulay Langstaff from Millwall earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
John Lundstram of Hull City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
31
Update Update
John Lundstram committed a foul on a Hull City player.
29
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Joe Gelhardt from Hull City takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Cody Drameh.
29
Update Update
Anthony Patterson from Millwall earned a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. John Lundstram from Hull City attempted a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Kyle Joseph.
29
Update Update
Oliver McBurnie from Hull City committed a foul.
27
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Kyle Joseph from Hull City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's stopped by Anthony Patterson, the goalkeeper for Millwall, who makes the save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Regan Slater.
27
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Joe Gelhardt from Hull City attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Oliver McBurnie.
22
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Cody Drameh from Hull City attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the top right corner of the goal. The assist came from John Lundstram.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Hull City 1, Millwall 1. Joe Gelhardt scores for Hull City with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it into the right corner of the net. The assist comes from Kyle Joseph.
15
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Dan McNamara from Millwall takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Ivor Pandur of Hull City makes a save in the bottom right corner.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hull City 0, Millwall 1. Jake Cooper scores for Millwall with a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, sending the ball into the top center of the net. The assist came from Tristan Crama, who set him up with a header.
13
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall has been awarded a free kick on the right flank.
13
Update Update
Charlie Hughes from Hull City committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Oliver McBurnie from Hull City committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Dan McNamara from Millwall was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
Kyle Joseph from Hull City connects with a header from the center of the box, but his attempt strikes the crossbar. The assist came from John Lundstram, who delivered a precise cross.
8
Update Update
Offside call against Millwall. Josh Coburn has been flagged for being offside.
6
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. Kyle Joseph from Hull City attempted a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Joe Gelhardt.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Zak Sturge allowed the ball to go out.
5
Update Update
Liam Millar from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
Billy Mitchell from Millwall committed a foul.
4
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Oliver McBurnie from Hull City attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Lewie Coyle, who delivered a cross.
3
Update Update
Josh Coburn committed a foul against Millwall.
3
Update Update
Semi Ajayi from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in their defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Millwall exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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