Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
MATRADE Loftus Road Sun, 8 Mar - 4:30 PM
Championship
Queens Park Rangers QPR
0 Winner 4
Middlesbrough MID
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:30 PM
|
Goal
David Strelec - 20'
Alan Browne - 68'
Hayden Hackney - 72'
Tommy Conway - 88' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Queens Park Rangers 0–3 Middlesbrough. The result saw Middlesbrough take the points. Middlesbrough showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 31%–69%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Middlesbrough showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Doughty
L. Doughty
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.03
J. Smith
J. Smith
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.03
S. Lewis
S. Lewis
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.03
H. Karaivanov
H. Karaivanov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.03
Queens Park Rangers J. Stéphan
J. Stéphan
VS
Middlesbrough K. Hellberg
K. Hellberg
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oxford United Rank: D
Stoke City Rank: D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Norwich City Rank: L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: L
Portsmouth Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Stoke City Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: W
Southampton Rank: W
Derby County Rank: L
Hull City Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 3 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Queens Park Rangers
22.93%
Draw
26.28%
Away Middlesbrough
50.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.52
63.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Queens Park Rangers
Middlesbrough
Power Score
43.52
63.89
League Position
16
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Queens Park Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Middlesbrough — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Queens Park Rangers Middlesbrough

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Queens Park Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Middlesbrough

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Queens Park Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Middlesbrough
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.45
26.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.88
36.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Queens Park Rangers +0.90 Efficiency Index
vs
Middlesbrough -0.90 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Queens Park Rangers
Middlesbrough
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Queens Park Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Middlesbrough
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Queens Park Rangers Middlesbrough
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Queens Park Rangers Middlesbrough
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Queens Park Rangers
Middlesbrough
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Queens Park Rangers QPR Home
11 matches
Middlesbrough MID Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
4
Goals
17
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
17
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:17:40+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
MATRADE Loftus Road
Capacity
18500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Leigh Doughty
Joshua Smith
Samuel Lewis
Hristo Karaivanov

Statistics

Possession
QPR
34%
MID
66%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 5
3 Shots 7
46 Dangerous attacks 51
31 Possession 69
3 Corners 8
3 Free kicks 8

Match Overview

14 Successful Headers 12
9 Dribble Attempts 18
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
2 Goal Attempts 4
2 Successful Dribbles 11
22 Throwins 21
0 Assists 2
13 Goal Kicks 5
34 Ball Safe 33
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
1 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

64 Attacks 139
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

226 Successful Passes 621
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
307 Passes 711
52 Long Passes 56
27 Successful Long Passes 25
74 Successful Passes Percentage 87
5 Key Passes 10

Defensive

13 Interceptions 16
2 Saves 3
14 Tackles 13

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
13 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

9 Fouls 3
1 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Tommy Conway
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Esquerdinha → Rhys Norrington-Davies
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Tylon Smith → Amadou Salif Mbengue
10th Substitution
85'
83'
Event
Leo Castledine → Riley McGree
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Alex Gilbert → Hayden Hackney
8th Substitution
Event
Daniel Bennie → Jonathan Varane
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Jake Clarke-Salter → Koki Saito
6th Substitution
80'
72'
Event
Hayden Hackney
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Paul Patrick Smyth → Kieran Morgan
4th Substitution
71'
68'
Event
Alan Browne
Header / 2nd Goal
66'
Event
Tommy Conway → David Strelec
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Jeremy Sarmiento → Morgan Whittaker
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Adilson Malanda → Dael Fry
1st Substitution
20'
Event
David Strelec
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Queens Park Rangers 0, Middlesbrough 4.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's Queens Park Rangers 0, Middlesbrough 4. Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough successfully scores the penalty, striking it with his right foot into the bottom right corner.
87
Update Update
Tylon Smith from Queens Park Rangers has given away a penalty following a foul committed in the box.
87
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Middlesbrough! Tommy Conway is brought down inside the box.
85
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale from Queens Park Rangers takes a shot with his left foot from outside the penalty area, but it strikes the left post.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Esquerdinha is coming on to replace Rhys Norrington-Davies.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Tylon Smith replaces Amadou Mbengue.
85
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Daniel Bennie from Queens Park Rangers took a shot with his right foot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Alex Gilbert is coming on to replace Hayden Hackney.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Leo Castledine replaces Riley McGree.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Daniel Bennie comes on to replace Jonathan Varane.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Jake Clarke-Salter replaces Koki Saito.
77
Update Update
Rhys Norrington-Davies committed a foul against a player from Queens Park Rangers.
77
Update Update
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Callum Brittain allowed the ball to go out.
75
Update Update
Riley McGree from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
75
Update Update
Amadou Mbengue of Queens Park Rangers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
A new offensive play unfolds as Richard Kone from Queens Park Rangers attempts a header from the middle of the box. However, Sol Brynn of Middlesbrough makes a great save, stopping the ball in the upper center of the goal. The assist came from Rhys Norrington-Davies, who delivered a cross.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's Queens Park Rangers 0, Middlesbrough 3. Hayden Hackney scores for Middlesbrough with a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Tommy Conway.
72
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push unfolds. Riley McGree from Middlesbrough takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Joe Walsh, the Queens Park Rangers goalkeeper, makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Hayden Hackney.
71
Update Update
Offside call against Queens Park Rangers. Amadou Mbengue has been flagged for being offside.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Paul Smyth replaces Kieran Morgan.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Matt Targett allowed the ball to go out.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Queens Park Rangers 0, Middlesbrough 2. Alan Browne scores for Middlesbrough with a header from inside the six-yard box, directing it from the left side into the top left corner following a corner kick.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Ronnie Edwards allowed the ball to go out.
67
Corner Corner
Luke Ayling from Middlesbrough strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from the center of the box following a corner kick.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Jeremy Sarmiento replaces Morgan Whittaker.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Tommy Conway replaces David Strelec.
64
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough takes a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Adilson Malanda.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Kieran Morgan allowed the ball to go out.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Harvey Vale from Queens Park Rangers took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the left.
56
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Riley McGree from Middlesbrough attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Matt Targett from Middlesbrough took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
55
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as David Strelec from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. However, Joe Walsh from Queens Park Rangers makes a solid save, diving to his left. The assist for this play comes from Aidan Morris, who delivered a precise through ball.
55
Update Update
Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Isaac Hayden from Queens Park Rangers takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Richard Kone.
55
Update Update
Jonathan Varane committed a foul against a player from Queens Park Rangers.
53
Update Update
Offside call against Middlesbrough. David Strelec has been flagged for being offside.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Jonathan Varane allowed the ball to go out.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Jonathan Varane allowed the ball to go out.
49
Update Update
Koki Saito from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Morgan Whittaker from Middlesbrough earned a free kick on the right flank.
47
Update Update
Amadou Mbengue from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Matt Targett from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Riley McGree allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline reading Queens Park Rangers 0, Middlesbrough 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Luke Ayling from Middlesbrough attempted a shot with his right foot from a challenging angle on the right side, but it narrowly missed the target. The chance was set up by Callum Brittain, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Rhys Norrington-Davies allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the scoreline reading Queens Park Rangers 0, Middlesbrough 1.
44
Update Update
Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough commits a handball.
42
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. David Strelec from Middlesbrough attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but couldn't convert.
33
Update Update
Kieran Morgan from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Matt Targett from Middlesbrough earned a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Matt Targett.
31
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Adilson Malanda comes on to replace Dael Fry, who has sustained an injury.
31
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
29
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Dael Fry from Middlesbrough.
29
Update Update
Alan Browne from Middlesbrough was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
29
Update Update
Amadou Mbengue from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Offside call against Middlesbrough. Morgan Whittaker has been caught offside.
24
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Harvey Vale from Queens Park Rangers took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left.
24
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Isaac Hayden from Queens Park Rangers attempts a header from the middle of the box, but Sol Brynn from Middlesbrough makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Jimmy Dunne, who also headed the ball.
24
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Richard Kone from Queens Park Rangers fired a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Jimmy Dunne, who set him up with a header.
23
Update Update
Kieran Morgan from Queens Park Rangers earned a free kick while advancing in the attack.
23
Update Update
Callum Brittain from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
20
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Morgan Whittaker from Middlesbrough takes a right-footed shot from close range, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Middlesbrough takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Queens Park Rangers. Morgan Whittaker scores with a left-footed shot from close range.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Middlesbrough takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Queens Park Rangers. David Strelec finds the back of the net with a shot from just a few meters away, aiming for the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Morgan Whittaker.
17
Update Update
Dael Fry from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Richard Kone from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Jonathan Varane allowed the ball to go out.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Jonathan Varane allowed the ball to go out.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after a defensive play by Jonathan Varane.
5
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Morgan Whittaker from Middlesbrough took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that came close but ultimately went wide. The assist was provided by Hayden Hackney.
4
Update Update
Amadou Mbengue from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Riley McGree from Middlesbrough earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
3
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Richard Kone from Queens Park Rangers takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Sol Brynn, the Middlesbrough goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Kieran Morgan.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Middlesbrough exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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