Wrexham vs Swansea City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Racecourse Ground Fri, 13 Mar - 8:00 PM
Championship
Wrexham WXH
2 Winner 0
Swansea City SWA
Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 8:00 PM
Nathan Broadhead - 25'
Liam Cullen - 88' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially concluded, with Wrexham securing a 2-0 full-time victory over Swansea City. Wrexham established their position early, taking a 1-0 lead into the halftime break before doubling their advantage in the second half. Going into the fixture, the pre-match market favored Wrexham with a 41.4% win probability, compared to Swansea's 29.5% and a 29.1% chance of a draw. Because the market backed the home side, the final outcome successfully aligned with pre-match expectations. However, the result still generated a significant deviation level of 58.6% in Wrexham's favor, highlighting a decisive overperformance compared to underlying baseline metrics that initially considered Swansea City the stronger team. Despite the comfortable scoreline, Wrexham operated without the ball for long stretches, managing just 34% possession while Swansea City controlled the remaining 66%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this contest, meaning an assessment of how the outcome aligned with chance quality could not be determined. The match flowed without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to either side. Ultimately, Wrexham's clinical finishing drove a home efficiency shift that was perfectly in line with their commanding victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Wrexham showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Nield
T. Nield
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
A. Dallison
A. Dallison
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
G. Byrne
G. Byrne
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
E. Duckworth
E. Duckworth
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Wrexham P. Parkinson
P. Parkinson
VS
Swansea City V. Emanuel Soares Matos
V. Emanuel Soares Matos
1.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derby County Rank: 71 W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 66 W
Preston North End Rank: 69 W
Sheffield United Rank: 72 W
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Watford Rank: 67 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: 73 L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 63 W
Oxford United Rank: 62 W
Coventry City Rank: 75 L
Wrexham Rank: 73 W
Stoke City Rank: 68 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wrexham
41.4%
Draw
29.07%
Away Swansea City
29.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.76
68.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wrexham
Swansea City
Power Score
66.76
68.03
League Position
6
11
Global Rank
106
222

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wrexham — Opponent-weighted form score
Swansea City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wrexham Swansea City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Wrexham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Swansea City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Wrexham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Swansea City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.35
20.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.38
37.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Wrexham +1.64 Efficiency Index
vs
Swansea City -1.64 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Wrexham
Swansea City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Wrexham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Swansea City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Wrexham Swansea City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Wrexham Swansea City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Wrexham
Swansea City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wrexham WXH Home
1 matches
Swansea City SWA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:17:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Okonkwo
England
1 A. Okonkwo
M. Cleworth
Wales
4 M. Cleworth
D. Hyam
Scotland
5 (C) D. Hyam
C. Doyle
England
2 C. Doyle
I. Kabore
Burkina Faso
12 I. Kabore
Z. Vyner
England
26 Z. Vyner
L. O'Brien
England
27 L. O'Brien
G. Thomason
England
14 G. Thomason
O. Rathbone
England
20 O. Rathbone
N. Broadhead
Substitution
Wales
33 N. Broadhead
S. Smith
Substitution
England
28 S. Smith
L. Vigouroux
Chile
22 L. Vigouroux
J. Tymon
Substitution
England
14 J. Tymon
C. Burgess
Australia
15 C. Burgess
B. Cabango
Wales
5 (C) B. Cabango
J. Key
England
2 J. Key
E. William Galbraith
Northern Ireland
30 E. William Galbraith
M. Stamenic
Substitution
New Zealand
6 M. Stamenic
G. Franco
Substitution
Portugal
17 G. Franco
G. Nunes Fernandes Gomes
Substitution
Brazil
18 G. Nunes Fernandes Gomes
Ž. Vipotnik
Slovenia
9 Ž. Vipotnik
R. Pereira Martins
Substitution
Brazil
35 R. Pereira Martins

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Racecourse Ground
Capacity
10771
Attendance
10641
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tom Nield
Andrew Dallison
George Byrne
Edward Duckworth

Statistics

Possession
WXH
39%
SWA
61%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 5
34 Dangerous attacks 69
34 Possession 66
5 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

17 Successful Headers 17
15 Goal Kicks 8
24 Throwins 22
10 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Successful Dribbles 8
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
1 Assists 0
2 Substitutions 5
49 Ball Safe 59
1 Injuries 0
7 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
106 Attacks 96

Possession

70 Successful Passes Percentage 85
11 Key Passes 8
300 Passes 607
210 Successful Passes 513
62 Long Passes 47
23 Successful Long Passes 20
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

3 Saves 1
11 Tackles 10
6 Interceptions 9
41 Duels Won 47

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 6
22 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

10 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI ▼

1
Arthur Okonkwo
Arthur Okonkwo Goalkeeper
7.54
2
Callum Doyle
Callum Doyle Defender
7.89
4
Max Cleworth
Max Cleworth Defender
6.92
5
Dominic Hyam
Dominic Hyam (C) Defender
7.21
12
Issa Kaboré
Issa Kaboré Midfielder
7.03
14
George Thomason
George Thomason Midfielder
6.72
26
Zak Vyner
Zak Vyner Midfielder
6.73
27
Lewis O'Brien
Lewis O'Brien Midfielder
7.05
20
Ollie Rathbone
Ollie Rathbone Attacker
6.98
28
Sam Smith
Sam Smith Attacker
6.46
11
Bailey Cadamarteri
Bailey Cadamarteri
Attacker85'
6.42
33
Nathan Broadhead
Nathan Broadhead Attacker
7.61
10
Josh Windass
Josh Windass
Midfielder67'
6.46
Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI ▼

22
Lawrence Vigouroux
Lawrence Vigouroux Goalkeeper
6.34
2
Josh Key
Josh Key Defender
6.13
5
Ben Cabango
Ben Cabango (C) Defender
6.73
14
Josh Tymon
Josh Tymon Defender
6.74
21
Leo Walta
Leo Walta
Midfielder82'
6.29
15
Cameron Burgess
Cameron Burgess Defender
6.79
6
Marko Stamenić
Marko Stamenić Midfielder
6.81
7
Melker Widell
Melker Widell
Midfielder74'
6.48
17
Gonçalo Franco
Gonçalo Franco Midfielder
7.49
8
Malick Yalcouyé
Malick Yalcouyé
Midfielder59'
6.7
30
Ethan Galbraith
Ethan Galbraith Midfielder
7.03
9
Zan Vipotnik
Zan Vipotnik Attacker
6.4
18
Gustavo Nunes
Gustavo Nunes Attacker
6.43
20
Liam Cullen
Liam Cullen
Attacker59'
6.28
35
Ronald
Ronald Attacker
7.12
10
Ji-sung Eom
Ji-sung Eom
Attacker59'
6.81

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Liam Cullen
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
88'
Event
Bailey Cadamarteri → Sam Smith
7th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Leo Walta → Josh Tymon
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Josh Tymon
Handball / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Melker Widell → Marko Stamenić
5th Substitution
Event
Josh Windass → Nathan Broadhead
4th Substitution
67'
62'
Event
Malick Yalcouyé
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
59'
Event
Ji-sung Eom → Ronald
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Malick Yalcouyé → Gonçalo Franco
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Liam Cullen → Gustavo Nunes
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Nathan Broadhead
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
25'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Issa Kaboré committed a foul on a Wrexham player.
90
Update Update
Melker Widell from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Melker Widell from Swansea City has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Attempt Attempt
A header attempt from Ben Cabango of Swansea City is thwarted. The shot, taken from the middle of the penalty area, is blocked. The assist came from Eom Ji-Sung, who delivered a cross.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Callum Doyle's defensive play.
89
Update Update
Issa Kaboré commits a foul against Wrexham.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Liam Cullen of Swansea City has inadvertently scored an own goal, increasing Wrexham's lead to 2-0 over Swansea City.
87
Update Update
Liam Cullen from Swansea City has accidentally scored an own goal. The score is now Wrexham 2, Swansea City 0.
87
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham earned a free kick in an offensive position.
87
Update Update
Leo Walta from Swansea City committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Bailey Cadamarteri of Wrexham attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Issa Kaboré.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Bailey Cadamarteri comes on to replace Sam Smith.
85
Update Update
Zan Vipotnik of Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
85
Update Update
Callum Doyle committed a foul on a Wrexham player.
83
Update Update
Sam Smith from Wrexham committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Ben Cabango from Swansea City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Malick Yalcouyé from Swansea City took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Leo Walta replaces Josh Tymon.
82
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Josh Tymon from Swansea City tried to take a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Joshua Key.
81
Update Update
Liam Cullen from Swansea City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
81
Update Update
Issa Kaboré committed a foul on a Wrexham player.
80
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Lewis O'Brien following a corner kick.
80
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner kick after Cameron Burgess allowed the ball to go out.
78
Update Update
Malick Yalcouyé from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in their defensive area.
78
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien committed a foul against Wrexham.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Josh Tymon from Swansea City has been shown a yellow card for handling the ball.
77
Update Update
Josh Tymon commits a handball for Swansea City.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Melker Widell comes on to replace Marko Stamenic.
73
Update Update
Sam Smith committed a foul against Wrexham.
73
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham earned a free kick in an offensive position.
73
Update Update
Fouled by Marko Stamenic of Swansea City.
73
Update Update
Ben Cabango from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Update Update
Offside call against Wrexham. Josh Windass has been caught offside.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Josh Windass comes on to replace Nathan Broadhead.
66
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Malick Yalcouyé from Swansea City took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it soared high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Josh Tymon following a corner kick.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after a play that resulted in a save by Arthur Okonkwo.
66
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Swansea City after a play that resulted in a deflection off Arthur Okonkwo.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malick Yalcouyé from Swansea City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
62
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Malick Yalcouyé of Swansea City.
61
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
60
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Issa Kaboré from Wrexham.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Eom Ji-Sung comes on to replace Ronald.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Liam Cullen replaces Gustavo Nunes.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Malick Yalcouyé replaces Gonçalo Franco.
56
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham takes a shot with his right foot from a challenging angle on the right, but it's successfully stopped.
54
Update Update
Gustavo Nunes from Swansea City committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Max Cleworth from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
47
Update Update
Gustavo Nunes from Swansea City committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Wrexham 1, Swansea City 0.
45
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Callum Doyle from Wrexham had a header within the six-yard area on the left side, but it went wide following a corner kick.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Issa Kaboré from Wrexham attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
45
Corner Corner
Wrexham has earned a corner kick after Marko Stamenic allowed the ball to go out of play.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Wrexham leading Swansea City 1-0.
45
Update Update
Ethan Galbraith from Swansea City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Zak Vyner committed a foul against Wrexham.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has signaled that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
44
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City attempted a header from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Ronald, who delivered a cross.
42
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
42
Update Update
Callum Doyle committed a foul on a Wrexham player.
41
Update Update
Ronald from Swansea City earned a free kick on the right flank.
41
Update Update
George Thomason commits a foul for Wrexham.
39
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner kick after Cameron Burgess allowed the ball to go out.
38
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner kick after Josh Tymon allowed the ball to go out of play.
36
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Zak Vyner of Wrexham attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but couldn't find the target. The cross was delivered by Lewis O'Brien.
35
Update Update
Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
35
Update Update
Offside call against Swansea City. Marko Stamenic has been caught in an offside position.
35
Update Update
Marko Stamenic from Swansea City committed a foul.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Issa Kaboré allowed the ball to go out.
33
Update Update
Offside call against Wrexham. Sam Smith has been flagged for being offside.
30
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Ben Cabango from Swansea City attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner kick.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Nathan Broadhead allowed the ball to go out.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wrexham takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Swansea City. Nathan Broadhead found the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box.
23
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Josh Tymon from Swansea City took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Ben Cabango.
22
Attempt Attempt
Ethan Galbraith from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's deflected away. The assist came from Josh Tymon.
21
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Arthur Okonkwo from Wrexham makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Gonçalo Franco, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after George Thomason allowed the ball to go out.
19
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham earned a free kick in an offensive position.
14
Update Update
Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City committed a foul.
14
Update Update
George Thomason from Wrexham earned a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Josh Tymon commits a foul on a Swansea City player.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from George Thomason.
9
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort unfolds. Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham heads the ball from the center of the box, but Lawrence Vigouroux from Swansea City makes a fantastic save, pushing it out to the top left corner. The assist came from Issa Kaboré, who delivered a precise cross.
9
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner kick after Lawrence Vigouroux allowed the ball to go out.
1
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, the attempt is thwarted by Wrexham's goalkeeper, Arthur Okonkwo, who makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Ronald.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Wrexham exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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