West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Hawthorns Wed, 11 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
West Bromwich Albion WBA
1 – 1
Southampton SOU
Full Time Wed, 11 Mar 7:45 PM
Jayson Molumby - 45'
Goal
|
Goal
Cyle Larin - 90+1'

CONTEXT

The match between West Bromwich Albion and Southampton has finished, concluding in a 1-1 draw at full-time. West Bromwich Albion initially seized the momentum, carrying a 1-0 lead into half-time, but they could not hold off the visitors in the second half. This result stands as a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, particularly for the stronger team, Southampton, who were favored to take all three points. The pre-match markets gave Southampton a 42.6% probability of victory, while the hosts were given a 30% chance. Ultimately, the final draw—which held just a 27.4% pre-game probability—was an outcome that did not align with the market. On the pitch, Southampton completely dictated the tempo, commanding 66% of the possession compared to West Bromwich Albion's 34%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the quality of chances created. Despite the visitors' heavy possession advantage, team efficiency shifts remained strictly in line with expectations throughout the contest. Furthermore, the match was completed with zero red cards, meaning the surprising draw was down to standard play rather than any major disciplinary events.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Russell
M. Russell
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
M. Webb
M. Webb
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
L. Doughty
L. Doughty
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
B. Speedie
B. Speedie
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
West Bromwich Albion J. Morrison
J. Morrison
VS
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: 71 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 75 L
Leicester City Rank: 67 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
Bristol City Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hull City Rank: 72 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 75 L
Millwall Rank: 73 D
Birmingham City Rank: 73 D
Oxford United Rank: 62 L
Coventry City Rank: 74 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 8 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home West Bromwich Albion
30%
Draw
27.38%
Away Southampton
42.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.51
65.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
West Bromwich Albion
Southampton
Power Score
62.51
65.59
League Position
23
7
Global Rank
381
134

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
West Bromwich Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) West Bromwich Albion Southampton

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

West Bromwich Albion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

West Bromwich Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Southampton
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.65
22.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.05
42.65
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
West Bromwich Albion +1.94 Efficiency Index
vs
Southampton -1.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
West Bromwich Albion
Southampton
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

West Bromwich Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Southampton
Created Set-piece attacking threat
West Bromwich Albion Southampton
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
West Bromwich Albion Southampton
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
West Bromwich Albion
Southampton
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

West Bromwich Albion WBA Home
5 matches
Southampton SOU Away
Match Record
0
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
4
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-12T00:05:12+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 11, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
The Hawthorns
Capacity
26445
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mark Russell
Michael Webb
Leigh Doughty
Ben Speedie

Statistics

Possession
WBA
39%
SOU
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 4
30 Dangerous attacks 51
34 Possession 66
5 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
18 Successful Headers 13
9 Throwins 22
16 Dribble Attempts 15
7 Goal Kicks 3
8 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
79 Ball Safe 96
7 Goal Attempts 9
2 Injuries 2

Attacking

86 Attacks 121
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

24 Successful Long Passes 21
73 Successful Passes Percentage 87
228 Successful Passes 535
66 Long Passes 46
311 Passes 618
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
11 Key Passes 9

Defensive

14 Tackles 14
3 Saves 5
14 Interceptions 4
48 Duels Won 46

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 24
7 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

13 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hindolo Mustapha → Aune Heggebø
10th Substitution
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Cyle Larin
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Harry Whitwell → Ousmane Diakité
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Ousmane Diakité
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
83'
Event
Cameron Archer → James Bree
8th Substitution
Event
Oliver Bostock → Jed Wallace 
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Josh Maja → Daryl Dike 
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Alex Mowatt → Jayson Molumby
7th Substitution
77'
Event
D. Imray
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
68'
Event
Cameron Bragg
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Cameron Bragg → Flynn Downes
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Samuel Edozie → Kuryu Matsuki
4th Substitution
50'
Event
Jack Stephens
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Cyle Larin → Ross Stewart
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jayson Molumby
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45'
37'
Event
Tom Fellows → Leo Scienza
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Hindolo Mustapha replaces Aune Heggebø.
90
Update Update
George Campbell from West Bromwich Albion earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between West Bromwich Albion and Southampton.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now West Bromwich Albion 1, Southampton 1. Cyle Larin scores for Southampton, heading the ball from the center of the box into the top left corner of the net. The assist came from Samuel Edozie, who delivered a precise cross.
90
Update Update
Cyle Larin from Southampton was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
90
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was denied. Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton headed the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but his shot was intercepted. The cross was delivered by Ryan Manning.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Isaac Price allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Isaac Price committed a foul for West Bromwich Albion.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cyle Larin's attempt on goal for Southampton is thwarted as his left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Cameron Archer.
89
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion has been awarded a free kick on the right flank.
88
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Callum Styles.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Harry Whitwell replaces Ousmane Diakité.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ousmane Diakité of West Bromwich Albion has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
86
Update Update
Cyle Larin from Southampton earned a free kick in an offensive position.
86
Update Update
Ousmane Diakité of West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Cameron Archer replaces James Bree.
83
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Josh Maja.
81
Update Update
Danny Imray of West Bromwich Albion earned a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Samuel Edozie from Southampton committed a foul.
79
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Shea Charles from Southampton took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went just to the left of the goal. The assist came from Finn Azaz.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Josh Maja comes on to replace Daryl Dike.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Oliver Bostock comes on to replace Jed Wallace.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Alex Mowatt replaces Jayson Molumby.
76
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton had a header from within the six-yard box, but it went just wide to the left. The cross was delivered by James Bree.
75
Update Update
Samuel Edozie from Southampton earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
75
Update Update
Danny Imray from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Danny Imray of West Bromwich Albion has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
73
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
72
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Danny Imray from West Bromwich Albion.
71
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Isaac Price from West Bromwich Albion takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly denied by Daniel Peretz of Southampton, who makes a save to his right. The assist for this play comes from Aune Heggebø.
70
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Update Update
Jayson Molumby from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Tom Fellows allowed the ball to go out.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cameron Bragg from Southampton has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
68
Update Update
Cameron Bragg from Southampton committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Jed Wallace from West Bromwich Albion earned a free kick on the right flank.
67
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Finn Azaz from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Ryan Manning.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Cameron Bragg comes on to replace Flynn Downes.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Samuel Edozie replaces Kuryu Matsuki.
65
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton committed a foul.
65
Update Update
Danny Imray from West Bromwich Albion has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
63
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Daryl Dike from West Bromwich Albion heads the ball from the middle of the box. However, the shot is stopped by Southampton's goalkeeper, Daniel Peretz, who is positioned centrally. The assist comes from Jed Wallace, who delivered a cross into the area.
61
Update Update
Danny Imray from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
61
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Tom Fellows from Southampton took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it narrowly misses the top left corner following a corner kick.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Alfie Gilchrist allowed the ball to go out.
56
Update Update
Cyle Larin from Southampton committed a foul.
56
Update Update
George Campbell from West Bromwich Albion was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
54
Update Update
Cyle Larin from Southampton committed a handball.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Isaac Price allowed the ball to go out.
52
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Isaac Price from West Bromwich Albion takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly stopped in the bottom right corner by Daniel Peretz of Southampton, with the assist coming from Daryl Dike.
50
Update Update
Jack Stephens from Southampton committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jack Stephens from Southampton has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
49
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Southampton. Ryan Manning takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Max O'Leary of West Bromwich Albion makes a great save, diving to his left to stop the ball.
48
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
48
Update Update
Jayson Molumby from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! West Bromwich Albion takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Southampton. Jayson Molumby scores with a right-footed shot from close range, finding the center of the net. The assist comes from Daryl Dike following a corner kick.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at West Bromwich Albion 1, Southampton 0.
45
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to James Bree from Southampton.
45
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Ousmane Diakité from West Bromwich Albion.
45
Update Update
Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with West Bromwich Albion leading Southampton 1-0.
45
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Daryl Dike of West Bromwich Albion heads the ball from within the six-yard area, but it's deflected on the left side.
45
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Daryl Dike of West Bromwich Albion heads the ball from close range, but Daniel Peretz of Southampton makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Callum Styles, who delivered a cross.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
Flynn Downes from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Cyle Larin comes on to replace Ross Stewart.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Shea Charles allowed the ball to go out.
41
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Isaac Price of West Bromwich Albion took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but failed to score. The assist came from Jayson Molumby.
40
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jack Stephens from Southampton heads the ball from the middle of the box. However, Max O'Leary of West Bromwich Albion makes a crucial save, denying the shot aimed at the top center of the goal. The assist came from James Bree, who delivered a precise cross.
39
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
39
Update Update
Daryl Dike from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
38
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
37
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Tom Fellows comes on to replace Léo Scienza, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
35
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Léo Scienza from Southampton.
34
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton earned a free kick on the left flank.
34
Update Update
Aune Heggebø committed a foul against a player from West Bromwich Albion.
32
Update Update
Another offensive push. Ross Stewart from Southampton heads the ball from the center of the box, but Max O'Leary, the goalkeeper for West Bromwich Albion, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Léo Scienza, who delivered a cross.
29
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Léo Scienza from Southampton attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Shea Charles.
24
Update Update
Isaac Price from West Bromwich Albion earned a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Shea Charles from Southampton committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Jed Wallace from West Bromwich Albion has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Update Update
Flynn Downes from Southampton committed a foul.
21
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Alfie Gilchrist from West Bromwich Albion attempted a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was intercepted.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Kuryu Matsuki allowed the ball to go out.
20
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Ousmane Diakité from West Bromwich Albion heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but his shot is blocked. The assist came from Isaac Price, who delivered a cross.
17
Update Update
Flynn Downes from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Jed Wallace from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
14
Update Update
Jed Wallace committed a foul for West Bromwich Albion.
14
Update Update
Shea Charles from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Ross Stewart was caught in an offside position.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Jack Stephens from Southampton took a shot with his right foot from inside the six-yard box, but it went over the bar on the left side. The assist came from James Bree, who delivered a cross into the area.
11
Update Update
Danny Imray from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton has been awarded a free kick on the left flank.
10
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. George Campbell from West Bromwich Albion heads the ball from close range, but it’s blocked. The cross was delivered by Isaac Price.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Kuryu Matsuki allowed the ball to go out.
7
Update Update
Daniel Peretz from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
6
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard area, but Daniel Peretz from Southampton makes a save in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Alfie Gilchrist.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion, following a deflection off Daniel Peretz.
3
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Ross Stewart is caught in an offside position.
2
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton.
1
Update Update
Ousmane Diakité from West Bromwich Albion earned a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Ousmane Diakité from West Bromwich Albion.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Southampton exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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