Preston North End vs Oxford United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Deepdale Fri, 6 Mar - 8:00 PM
Championship
Preston North End PNE
1 Winner 3
Oxford United OXF
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 8:00 PM
Milutin Osmajic - 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Michal Helik - 5'
Will Lankshear - 54'
Ciaron Maurice Brown - 61'

CONTEXT

The match between Preston North End and Oxford United has finished, with the visiting Oxford United securing a notable 3-1 victory. The game was evenly poised at 1-1 at half-time before the away side pulled ahead in the second half. This outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market, representing a significant deviation by Oxford United. Preston North End entered the contest as the stronger team with a 43.1% win probability, while the visitors had just a 28.6% chance of victory. Despite the final scoreline, Preston North End completely dominated the ball, holding 70% possession compared to Oxford United's 30%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it is undetermined whether the 3-1 outcome was consistent with the underlying quality of chances created. Furthermore, the match concluded without any red cards, meaning disciplinary actions did not unfairly impact either side. The overall efficiency shift was in line with the final result. Oxford United maximized their limited time on the ball, posting an offensive efficiency rating of 1.4142. This sharply contrasted with Preston North End's negative -1.4142 mark, highlighting how the visitors effectively defied market expectations to claim all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Oxford United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Byrne
G. Byrne
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Kitchen
A. Kitchen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Herczeg
A. Herczeg
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Smith
M. Smith
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Preston North End P. Heckingbottom
P. Heckingbottom
VS
Oxford United M. Bloomfield
M. Bloomfield
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hull City Rank: L
Derby County Rank: L
Bristol City Rank: W
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: L
Stoke City Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leicester City Rank: W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: D
Bristol City Rank: D
Ipswich Town Rank: L
Swansea City Rank: L
Southampton Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Preston North End
43.1%
Draw
28.34%
Away Oxford United
28.56%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.37
32.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Preston North End
Oxford United
Power Score
45.37
32.41
League Position
12
21
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Preston North End — Opponent-weighted form score
Oxford United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Preston North End Oxford United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Preston North End

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Oxford United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Preston North End ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oxford United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.36
54.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
54.50
24.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Preston North End -2.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Oxford United +2.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Preston North End
Oxford United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Preston North End
vs
Oxford United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Preston North End Oxford United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Preston North End Oxford United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Preston North End
Oxford United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Preston North End PNE Home
3 matches
Oxford United OXF Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:31:05+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Deepdale
Capacity
23408
Attendance
14009
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
George Byrne
Andrew Kitchen
Adam Herczeg
Matthew Smith

Statistics

Possession
PNE
65%
OXF
35%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 6
81 Dangerous attacks 27
70 Possession 30
9 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

35 Throwins 18
21 Successful Headers 19
24 Dribble Attempts 12
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 17
1 Assists 3
10 Goal Kicks 6
8 Successful Dribbles 2
8 Goal Attempts 12
68 Ball Safe 63
3 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 3

Attacking

125 Attacks 57
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

50 Long Passes 58
24 Successful Long Passes 14
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 24
82 Successful Passes Percentage 66
398 Successful Passes 137
483 Passes 209
10 Key Passes 10

Defensive

14 Tackles 29
6 Interceptions 14
4 Saves 3

Build-up

33 Total Crosses 11
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 10

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jordan Storey
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+4'
87'
Event
Mark Harris → Jamie Paul Donley
8th Substitution
Event
Thierry Small → Jordan Andrew Thompson
7th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Christ Makosso → Stanley Mills
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Will Vaulks → Yunus Konak
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Nik Prelec → Will Lankshear
4th Substitution
Event
Andrija Vukcevic → Lewis Gibson
3rd Substitution
62'
61'
Event
Ciaron Maurice Brown
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
54'
Event
Will Lankshear
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Brodie Gilmore Spencer → Jack Currie
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Daniel Jebbison → Callum Lang
1st Substitution
45+4'
22'
Event
Ciaron Maurice Brown
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Milutin Osmajic
Header / 2nd Goal
12'
5'
Event
Michal Helik
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Mark Harris from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Storey from Preston North End has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Jordan Storey from Preston North End committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after a foul by Michal Helik.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Brodie Spencer from Oxford United committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Preston North End 1, Oxford United 3.
90
Update Update
Thierry Small from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Ciaron Brown allowed the ball to go out.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Mark Harris replaces Jamie Donley.
86
Update Update
Offside call against Preston North End. Milutin Osmajic has been caught offside.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Christ Makosso allowed the ball to go out.
84
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal following a free kick.
83
Update Update
Jordan Storey from Preston North End committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Thierry Small comes on to replace Jordan Thompson.
81
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Jordan Thompson from Preston North End takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
80
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Jordan Storey of Preston North End attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was provided by Odeluga Offiah.
80
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Will Vaulks comes on to replace Yunus Konak due to an injury.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Christ Makosso is coming on to replace Stanley Mills.
78
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Yunus Konak from Oxford United.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Ciaron Brown allowed the ball to go out.
75
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
74
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United.
73
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Alfie Devine of Preston North End attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, coming very close to finding the net. The assist was provided by Milutin Osmajic.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Nik Prelec is coming on to replace Will Lankshear.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Andrew Hughes of Preston North End.
69
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Andrew Hughes from Preston North End attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but couldn't convert.
66
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but David Cornell of Preston North End makes a save, diving to his right to stop the ball.
65
Update Update
Lewis Dobbin of Preston North End has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
65
Update Update
Oxford United's Michal Helik committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Andrija Vukcevic from Preston North End committed a foul.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Andrija Vukcevic comes on to replace Lewis Gibson.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Preston North End 1, Oxford United 3. Ciaron Brown scores for Oxford United, firing a left-footed shot from close range into the top center of the net. The assist came from Michal Helik, who set him up with a header.
60
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Oxford United after Milutin Osmajic gave it away.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after David Cornell allowed the ball to go out.
59
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, David Cornell of Preston North End makes a fantastic save, diving to the top left corner to deny the goal. The assist for this attempt came from Stanley Mills.
56
Update Update
Jordan Thompson from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Update Update
Stanley Mills committed a foul against Oxford United.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Lewis Gibson allowed the ball to go out.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's Preston North End 1, Oxford United 2. Will Lankshear from Oxford United scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the bottom right corner. The assist came from Stanley Mills following a corner kick.
54
Corner Corner
Goal! Preston North End 1, Oxford United 2. Will Lankshear of Oxford United scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it into the bottom right corner. The assist came from Stanley Mills following a corner kick.
52
Update Update
Alfie Devine from Preston North End earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Michal Helik of Oxford United.
51
Update Update
Jamie Donley from Oxford United commits a handball.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after a foul by Odeluga Offiah.
48
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Andrew Hughes from Preston North End took a left-footed shot from the center of the box following a corner kick.
47
Update Update
Jordan Thompson from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Brodie Spencer allowed the ball to go out of play.
47
Update Update
Jordan Thompson from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Preston North End and Oxford United.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at Preston North End 1, Oxford United 1.
45
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Callum Lang of Preston North End.
45
Attempt Attempt
A shot was deflected. Jordan Thompson from Preston North End attempted a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Alfie Devine.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Daniel Jebbison comes on to replace Callum Lang, who is leaving the pitch due to an injury.
45
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Callum Lang from Preston North End earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Brodie Spencer replaces Jack Currie.
44
Update Update
Stanley Mills of Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Stanley Mills of Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Jack Currie from Oxford United committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Callum Lang from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Callum Lang committed a foul on a Preston North End player.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Will Lankshear gave it away.
41
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Lewis Gibson from Preston North End takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
41
Update Update
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Alfie Devine of Preston North End heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Benjamin Whiteman, who delivered a cross.
41
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Will Lankshear from Oxford United takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it’s stopped by the goalkeeper, David Cornell, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Jamie Donley.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Michal Helik - Oxford United.
40
Update Update
Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Jack Currie allowed the ball to go out.
38
Update Update
Yunus Konak from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
38
Update Update
Jordan Thompson from Preston North End committed a foul.
37
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play now.
35
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Jamie Cumming of Oxford United.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Will Lankshear allowed the ball to go out.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Stanley Mills allowed the ball to go out of play.
27
Update Update
Milutin Osmajic from Preston North End committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Michal Helik from Oxford United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
Offside call against Preston North End. Lewis Dobbin is caught in an offside position.
23
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Callum Lang from Preston North End takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after a foul by Andrew Hughes.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ciaron Brown of Oxford United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
21
Update Update
Ciaron Brown from Oxford United committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Milutin Osmajic from Preston North End earned a free kick in an offensive position.
19
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Will Lankshear from Oxford United attempted a shot with his right foot from inside the penalty area.
17
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Stanley Mills of Oxford United took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it soared over the goal after a quick counterattack.
15
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Jamie Donley from Oxford United takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's just off target, grazing the top left corner.
15
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Will Lankshear from Oxford United attempts a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Cameron Brannagan.
14
Update Update
Odeluga Offiah from Preston North End committed a foul.
14
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort unfolds. Milutin Osmajic from Preston North End heads the ball from the center of the box, but Jamie Cumming of Oxford United makes a great save, tipping it away to the top right corner. The assist came from Jordan Storey, who delivered a precise cross.
14
Update Update
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
13
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Stanley Mills from Oxford United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between Preston North End and Oxford United. Milutin Osmajic scores for Preston with a header from the center of the penalty area.
10
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Ciaron Brown from Oxford United attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area.
7
Attempt Attempt
Close call! Alfie Devine from Preston North End took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Oxford United takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Preston North End. Michal Helik finds the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, placing it perfectly into the center of the goal. The assist comes from Cameron Brannagan.
4
Update Update
Jordan Storey of Preston North End committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Jamie Donley from Oxford United committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Offside call against Preston North End. Milutin Osmajic has been caught in an offside position.
1
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jamie Donley from Oxford United attempted a left-footed shot from over 40 yards out on the right flank after a quick counterattack.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Oxford United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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