AC Milan vs Inter Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Sun, 8 Mar - 7:45 PM
Serie A
AC Milan MIL
1 Winner 0
Inter INT
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 7:45 PM
Pervis Estupiñán - 35'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. AC Milan 1–0 Inter. The result saw AC Milan take the points. AC Milan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 37%–63%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AC Milan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Doveri

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Berti

2nd Assistant

M. Marchetti

4th Official

G. Baccini

1st Assistant

AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
VS
Inter C. Chivu
C. Chivu
2.22
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.39
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Como Rank: D
Pisa Rank: W
Bologna Rank: W
Roma Rank: D
Lecce Rank: W
Como Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lecce Rank: W
Napoli Rank: D
Parma Rank: W
Bologna Rank: W
Atalanta Rank: W
Genoa Rank: W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 12 - 25
25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AC Milan
29.77%
Draw
30.75%
Away Inter
39.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.43
79.76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AC Milan
Inter
Power Score
71.43
79.76
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Inter — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AC Milan Inter

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AC Milan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Inter

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AC Milan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Inter
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.76
23.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.41
26.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AC Milan +0.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Inter -0.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AC Milan
Inter
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AC Milan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Inter
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AC Milan Inter
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AC Milan Inter
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AC Milan
Inter
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AC Milan MIL Home
11 matches
Inter INT Away
Match Record
5
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
5
Goals
14
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
14
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:25:07+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity :
75817
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alessio Berti
Matteo Marchetti
Daniele Doveri
Giovanni Baccini

Statistics

Possession
MIL
41%
INT
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 5
18 Dangerous attacks 75
37 Possession 63
1 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 9
14 Dribble Attempts 7
8 Throwins 15
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
7 Successful Headers 6
7 Successful Dribbles 2
1 Assists 0
3 Substitutions 5
79 Ball Safe 64
7 Goal Attempts 6
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

84 Attacks 113
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66
86 Successful Passes Percentage 90
39 Long Passes 44
383 Passes 632
328 Successful Passes 570
8 Key Passes 10
18 Successful Long Passes 29

Defensive

14 Tackles 12
40 Duels Won 28
7 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 1

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 31
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Luka Modrić
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Christopher Nkunku → Christian Pulisic
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Adrien Rabiot
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
80'
Event
Andy Diouf → Yann Bisseck
7th Substitution
Event
Niclas Füllkrug → Rafael Leão
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Samuele Ricci → Youssouf Fofana
6th Substitution
73'
69'
Event
Denzel Dumfries
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Davide Frattesi → Nicolò Barella
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Carlos Augusto → Alessandro Bastoni
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Alessandro Bastoni
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
59'
Event
Denzel Dumfries → Luis Henrique
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Petar Sučić → Henrikh Mkhitaryan
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Pervis Estupiñán
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
35'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after Adrien Rabiot allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Francesco Pio Esposito from Inter Milan attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
90
Update Update
Offside call against AC Milan. Niclas Füllkrug is caught in an offside position.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Inter Milan after Fikayo Tomori allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after Koni De Winter allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with AC Milan leading Inter Milan 1-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Manuel Akanji of Inter Milan attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Petar Sucic.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luka Modric of AC Milan has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
89
Update Update
Petar Sucic from Inter Milan was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Luka Modric committed a foul against AC Milan.
87
Update Update
Samuele Ricci from AC Milan committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers from AC Milan committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Samuele Ricci from AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Federico Dimarco from Inter Milan committed a foul.
84
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
84
Update Update
Francesco Pio Esposito from Inter Milan committed a foul.
82
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Strahinja Pavlovic from AC Milan.
80
Update Update
Denzel Dumfries from Inter Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Andy Diouf replaces Yann Bisseck.
80
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot commits a foul against AC Milan.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrien Rabiot of AC Milan has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
79
Update Update
Fikayo Tomori of AC Milan earned a free kick on the right flank.
79
Update Update
Ange-Yoan Bonny from Inter Milan committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Federico Dimarco from Inter Milan committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Fikayo Tomori from AC Milan earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
75
Update Update
Ange-Yoan Bonny from Inter Milan committed a foul.
75
Update Update
Pervis Estupiñán of AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Niclas Füllkrug comes on to replace Rafael Leão.
73
Update Update
Piotr Zielinski of Inter Milan committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers of AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Samuele Ricci replaces Youssouf Fofana.
69
Update Update
Strahinja Pavlovic of AC Milan earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
69
Update Update
Piotr Zielinski of Inter Milan was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
69
Update Update
Fikayo Tomori from AC Milan committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers from AC Milan committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Federico Dimarco from Inter Milan earned a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Denzel Dumfries from Inter Milan committed a foul.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Denzel Dumfries of Inter Milan has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
68
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Davide Frattesi comes on to replace Nicolò Barella.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Carlos Augusto is coming on to replace Alessandro Bastoni, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
67
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Adrien Rabiot from AC Milan.
67
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Alessandro Bastoni from Inter Milan.
65
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Ange-Yoan Bonny of Inter Milan attempted a header from the center of the box but couldn't convert.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alessandro Bastoni from Inter Milan has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
65
Update Update
Alessandro Bastoni from Inter Milan committed a foul.
63
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Ange-Yoan Bonny of Inter Milan attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The cross was delivered by Denzel Dumfries.
62
Update Update
Offside call against AC Milan. Rafael Leão has been caught offside.
61
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Ange-Yoan Bonny from Inter Milan attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Francesco Pio Esposito.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Denzel Dumfries is coming on to replace Luis Henrique.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Petar Sucic comes on to replace Henrikh Mkhitaryan.
58
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Rafael Leão of AC Milan attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Youssouf Fofana.
54
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Federico Dimarco from Inter Milan took a left-footed shot from the center of the box that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Henrikh Mkhitaryan.
51
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Youssouf Fofana from AC Milan takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, the attempt is thwarted by Inter Milan's goalkeeper, Yann Sommer, who makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Luka Modric.
49
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Francesco Pio Esposito from Inter Milan heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Rafael Leão of AC Milan took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The chance was set up by Christian Pulisic after a quick counterattack.
48
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Piotr Zielinski from Inter Milan takes a challenging shot with his right foot from the right side. However, Mike Maignan of AC Milan makes a spectacular save, reaching the top right corner. The assist came from Nicolò Barella.
48
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Inter Milan, following a save made by Mike Maignan.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after Fikayo Tomori allowed the ball to go out.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Youssouf Fofana from AC Milan takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sails over the goal and to the right.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with AC Milan leading Inter Milan 1-0.
45
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Nicolò Barella from Inter Milan attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to find the target. The chance was set up by Piotr Zielinski following a corner kick.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at AC Milan 1, Inter Milan 0.
43
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AC Milan after Alessandro Bastoni allowed the ball to go out.
41
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Fikayo Tomori of AC Milan takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Alexis Saelemaekers.
41
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Christian Pulisic of AC Milan took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Fikayo Tomori.
39
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Alexis Saelemaekers of AC Milan took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal and to the left. The assist came from Christian Pulisic.
37
Update Update
Luka Modric of AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Francesco Pio Esposito from Inter Milan committed a foul.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! AC Milan takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Inter Milan. Pervis Estupiñán scores with a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, finding the top left corner of the net. The assist came from Youssouf Fofana.
34
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push is underway. Henrikh Mkhitaryan from Inter Milan takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Mike Maignan of AC Milan makes a save, stopping the ball at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Piotr Zielinski.
34
Update Update
Offside call against Inter Milan. Henrikh Mkhitaryan has been flagged for being offside.
31
Update Update
Piotr Zielinski from Inter Milan committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot of AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot of AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Alessandro Bastoni from Inter Milan committed a foul.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after Koni De Winter allowed the ball to go out.
21
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Federico Dimarco from Inter Milan took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Piotr Zielinski.
20
Update Update
Pervis Estupiñán committed a foul against AC Milan.
20
Update Update
Nicolò Barella of Inter Milan was awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
19
Update Update
Fikayo Tomori from AC Milan committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Francesco Pio Esposito from Inter Milan earned a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Alessandro Bastoni from Inter Milan committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Rafael Leão from AC Milan earned a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
16
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Fikayo Tomori from AC Milan.
14
Update Update
Alessandro Bastoni from Inter Milan committed a foul.
14
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers from AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Federico Dimarco of Inter Milan fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Francesco Pio Esposito.
3
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Luka Modric of AC Milan attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to hit the target. The assist came from Christian Pulisic.
1
Update Update
Pervis Estupiñán committed a foul against AC Milan.
1
Update Update
Francesco Pio Esposito from Inter Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AC Milan exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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